{"id":3981,"date":"2024-09-05T21:21:37","date_gmt":"2024-09-05T21:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/?p=3981"},"modified":"2024-12-25T02:05:28","modified_gmt":"2024-12-25T02:05:28","slug":"overall-distress-rate-reaches-a-sixth-straight-record-high-led-by-a-260-basis-point-surge-by-multifamily","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/2024\/09\/05\/overall-distress-rate-reaches-a-sixth-straight-record-high-led-by-a-260-basis-point-surge-by-multifamily\/","title":{"rendered":"Overall Distress Rate Reaches a Sixth Straight Record High \u2013 Led By a 260 Basis Point Surge by Multifamily"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The CRED iQ team evaluated payment statuses reported for each loan (securitized by CMBS financing), along with special servicing status as part of our monthly distress update.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The overall CRED iQ distress rate increased from 8.8% to 9.1% over the past month, achieving a sixth straight record high. CRED iQ\u2019s special servicing rate came in flat month-over-month at 8.0%, while the CRED iQ delinquency rate increased by 66 basis points (reaching 6.8%) this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distress-Rates-by-Prop-Type.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3983\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distress-Rates-by-Prop-Type.png 960w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distress-Rates-by-Prop-Type-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distress-Rates-by-Prop-Type-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distress-Rates-by-Prop-Type-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distress-Rates-by-Prop-Type-696x696.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Segment Review<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Multifamily continued its momentum rising to 11.0% from last month\u2019s 8.4%, a dramatic 260 basis point increase in one month.&nbsp; Just eight months ago, that rate was 2.6%.&nbsp; The multifamily segment surpassed retail to secure the second highest &nbsp;level of distress among all CRE segments.&nbsp; These figures include all multifamily securitized with CMBS financing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The office segment saw an increase in its distress rate in August\u2013adding 80 basis points to 13.0% while maintaining its leadership as the sector with the highest overall distress level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Retail improved by reducing its distress rate from 11.8% to 10.6% in this print\u2014settling in at third place.&nbsp; The hotel segment added 60 basis points to 8.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uncharacteristically, the industrial segment saw a sharp increase from 0.8% to 4.6%&#8211;the largest increase of all property types.\u00a0 This increase is largely attributable to one SBLL portfolio valued at $2.18 billion (please see \u201cLoan Highlight\u201d below).\u00a0\u00a0 Meanwhile, self-storage continued to perform with nearly zero distress \u2013 coming in at 0.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Overall-Distress-Rates-by-Property-Type-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3985\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Overall-Distress-Rates-by-Property-Type-1.png 960w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Overall-Distress-Rates-by-Property-Type-1-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Overall-Distress-Rates-by-Property-Type-1-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Overall-Distress-Rates-by-Property-Type-1-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Overall-Distress-Rates-by-Property-Type-1-696x696.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Payment Status<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at distressed loan payment status, 31.7% of the loans are current \u2013 up significantly from last month\u2019s 21.2%.&nbsp; 2.1% of loans are attributable to late (but in the grace period) and 3.6% of loans were late (but less than 30 days DQ). Combining these three metrics 37.4% of all loans were current \/ late within the grace period \/ less than 30 days delinquent.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Non-Performing Matured saw a reduction from 39.0% to 30.9%, as did 90+ Days Delinquent dropping from 14.2% to 10.9%. &nbsp;Performing Matured increased from 12.9% in July to 16.2% in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Analysis Methodology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CRED iQ\u2019s distress rate aggregates the two indicators of distress \u2013 delinquency rate and specially serviced rate \u2013 yielding the distress rate. The index includes any loan with a payment status of 30+ days delinquent or worse, any loan actively with the special servicer, and includes non-performing and performing loans that have failed to pay off at maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s important to note that CRED iQ\u2019s distress rate factors in all CMBS properties that are securitized in conduits and single-borrower large loan deal types.&nbsp; CRED iQ tracks Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and CRE CLO loan metrics in separate analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned in our August report, our analysis exposes a meaningful gap between the distress and watchlist rates which could imply that the special serving &amp; delinquency percentages may be likely to grow.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"959\" height=\"960\" src=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distressed-Loan-Payment-Status.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3986\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distressed-Loan-Payment-Status.png 959w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distressed-Loan-Payment-Status-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distressed-Loan-Payment-Status-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distressed-Loan-Payment-Status-768x769.png 768w, https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRED-iQ-CMBS-August-Distressed-Loan-Payment-Status-696x697.png 696w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 959px) 100vw, 959px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Loan Highlight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nvip 1-15, a $2.18 billion ($133\/SF) SBLL loan backed by a 138 industrial and office\/flex property portfolio, defaulted this month after failing to payoff at maturity. The interest-only loan also has $1.96 billion ($119\/SF) in additional debt. The loan has three, one-year maturity extension options representing a fully extended maturity of August 2027. Servicer commentary indicates the borrower provided written notice to exercise the first maturity extension option.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 16.4 million SF portfolio consists of properties throughout six states: CA, FL, VA, TX, MD, and WA. The portfolio was 98.5% occupied and performing with a DSCR of 0.73. The collateral was valued at $4.2 billion ($256\/SF) at underwriting in June 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-50 is-style-round\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-midnight-gradient-background has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sign Up for CRED iQ Today<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>About CRED iQ<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CRED iQ<\/a>&nbsp;is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ\u2019s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The CRED iQ team evaluated payment statuses reported for each loan (securitized by CMBS financing), along with special servicing status as part of our monthly distress update. The overall CRED iQ distress rate increased from 8.8% to 9.1% over the past month, achieving a sixth straight record high. CRED iQ\u2019s special servicing rate came in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3984,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13,9],"tags":[4,5,6,7,8],"class_list":{"0":"post-3981","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-cmbs-delinquency-report","8":"category-research","9":"tag-cmbs","10":"tag-commercial-real-estate-data","11":"tag-delinquency","12":"tag-distressed-properties","13":"tag-loan-data"},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3981"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4237,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3981\/revisions\/4237"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cred-iq.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}