CRED iQ’s Top Research of the Year

By

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December 19, 2025

As 2025 comes to a close, the CRED iQ research team wanted to take a moment and reflect upon a year which was filled with uncertainty, elevating distress and even optimism.

In this issue, we look back at 2025 and the stories that captured the markets. As we get ready to turn the page on 2025, we are pleased to present our most-read research of the year.

1. Maturity Wall Grows with $440 Billion Coming Due Over the Next Two Years

This blog explores the expanding “maturity wall” in CRE, where a staggering $440 billion in loans are set to mature within the next two years. It discusses the challenges borrowers face in refinancing amid higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions, potentially leading to increased defaults or forced sales. Key implications include heightened market volatility and opportunities for distressed asset investors.

2. Cap Rate Trends are Steadily Increasing

The post analyzes the upward trajectory of capitalization rates across various CRE sectors, signaling a shift toward higher yields as property values adjust to economic pressures. It highlights factors like inflation, rising borrowing costs, and reduced investor appetite, with data showing consistent quarter-over-quarter increases. Readers gain insights into how this trend affects valuation strategies and investment returns.

3. Multifamily Distress Volumes Hits 12-Year High

Focusing on the multifamily sector, this article details how distress volumes have reached levels not seen in 12 years, driven by factors such as oversupply, rent growth slowdowns, and operational challenges. It includes metrics on delinquent loans and foreclosures, offering comparisons to historical peaks. The summary underscores risks for lenders and opportunities for value-add strategies in affected markets.

4. The Hottest U.S. Multifamily Markets in 2025

This forward-looking piece identifies the top U.S. multifamily markets poised for growth in 2025, based on factors like population influx, job creation, and rental demand. It ranks cities or regions with strong fundamentals, such as low vacancy rates and robust economic drivers. Investors can use these insights to prioritize allocations in high-potential areas amid broader sector uncertainties.

5. CRE CLO Distress Rate Drops 230 Basis Points in June

The blog reports a significant decline in distress rates for commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations (CRE CLOs) by 230 basis points in June, indicating a potential stabilization or recovery phase. It examines underlying causes, such as improved liquidity or policy interventions, with breakdowns by asset class. This positive shift suggests easing pressures in structured finance, though ongoing monitoring is advised.

6. The Extend & Pretend Surge: $40 Billion in CRE Loan Modifications Signals a Shifting Market

This analysis covers the surge in “extend and pretend” strategies, where $40 billion in CRE loans have been modified to delay maturities and avoid defaults. It discusses how lenders and borrowers are navigating high interest rates through restructurings, with implications for market transparency and future distress. The post highlights this as a sign of adapting to prolonged economic headwinds.

7. CMBS Distress Rate Reaches 11% – Breaking a Streak of 3 Consecutive Reductions

Detailing a reversal in trends, the article notes that commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) distress rates have climbed to 11%, ending a three-month decline. It breaks down contributions from sectors like office and retail, with data on special servicing transfers. This uptick signals renewed concerns over asset performance and could influence investor sentiment in securitized markets.

8. Office Distress Rate Eclipses 17%

The post examines the office sector’s distress rate surpassing 17%, amid persistent remote work trends and vacancy spikes. It includes regional variations and loan performance metrics, attributing the rise to obsolescence and reduced demand. Implications focus on the need for repurposing strategies and the long-term outlook for office investments.

9. Tracking CRE Delinquency Trends: Insights from the Great Financial Crisis to Q1 2025

This historical overview tracks CRE delinquency trends from the 2008 Great Financial Crisis through Q1 2025, providing comparative data on peaks, recoveries, and current trajectories. It identifies patterns in delinquency rates across property types, offering lessons for risk management. The analysis helps contextualize today’s environment against past cycles, aiding in forecasting potential resolutions.

10. Top CMBS Conduit Originators of 2025 – A Mid-Year Review

Offering a mid-year snapshot, the blog ranks the leading originators of CMBS conduit loans in 2025, based on volume and market share. It discusses key players’ strategies, deal structures, and shifts in origination activity amid evolving regulations. This review provides valuable benchmarks for industry participants tracking securitization trends and competitive dynamics.

BMO 2025-5C13: CMBS New Issuance

By

Michael Haas

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December 15, 2025

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CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis

Deal Overview

Type: Public fixed-rate conduit CMBS
Size: $484.906 MM publicly offered certificates (total trust balance: $551,814,060)
Issuance Date: Pricing week of December 15, 2025 | Expected settlement December 30, 2025
Co-Lead Managers & Joint Bookrunners: BMO Capital Markets Corp., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., SG Americas Securities, LLC
Co-Managers: Academy Securities, Inc., Bancroft Capital, LLC, Drexel Hamilton, LLC, Mischler Financial Group, Inc., Natixis Securities Americas LLC

Key Pool Characteristics

Initial Pool Balance: $551,814,060
Number of Loans / Properties: 30 / 36
WA Cut-off LTV: 58.5%
WA UW NCF DSCR: 1.99x
WA Debt Yield (UW NOI): 13.9%
WA Mortgage Rate: 6.35128%
WA Remaining Term: 59 months

Property Type Mix
Multifamily 35.2% | Retail 27.0% | Office 17.4% | Hospitality 12.2% | Self Storage 4.0%

Geographic Concentration
NY 33.1% | CA 12.4% | NV 12.3% | ID 9.8% | VA 5.3%

Risk Retention: Horizontal (HRR)

Anticipated Settlement: December 30, 2025

Servicing & Parties

Master Servicer: Midland Loan Services, a Division of PNC Bank, National Association
Special Servicer: 3650 REIT Loan Servicing LLC
Data & Analytics Provider: CRED iQ

Key Analysis

BMO 2025-5C13 is one of the final conduits of 2025, showcasing exceptionally conservative underwriting with a WA cut-off LTV of 58.5%—among the lowest in recent vintages—and a robust 13.9% UW NOI debt yield that offers significant protection in the current rate environment.

The deal provides 30% credit enhancement to the AAA classes, consistent with post-2023 conduit norms, bolstered by a strong 1.99x UW NCF DSCR. Loan concentration is elevated, with the top 11 loans accounting for 67% of the pool balance, though this is driven by high-quality, granular assets across multifamily and retail.

Property-type exposure is led by multifamily (35.2%) and retail (27.0%), with notable office (17.4%) and hospitality (12.2%) allocations supported by low leverage and healthy debt yields. Geographically, New York leads at 33.1%, with Western markets (CA, NV, ID) combining for ~34.5%—a common profile for year-end deals.

Key contributors include 3650 Capital (33.6%) and BMO (31.8%), with 3650 also handling special servicing and controlling class duties. As 2025 U.S. conduit issuance closes near $60 billion—essentially flat year-over-year—this transaction underscores ongoing investor preference for tightly underwritten, low-LTV deals as the market heads into 2026.

BMARK 2025-V19: CMBS New Issuance

By

Michael Haas

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December 12, 2025

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CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis

Deal Overview

Type: Public fixed-rate conduit CMBS (primarily interest-only with limited partial amortizing loans)
Size: $588.7 MM publicly offered certificates (total trust balance: $588,699,194)
Issuance Date: Priced December 9, 2025 | Expected settlement December 23, 2025
Co-Lead Managers & Joint Bookrunners: Citigroup, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Barclays, Deutsche Bank Securities
Co-Managers: Drexel Hamilton, Mischler Financial Group

Pricing

Key Pool Characteristics

Initial Pool Balance: $588,699,194
Number of Loans / Properties: 28 / 48
WA Cut-off LTV: 61.6%
WA Maturity LTV: 61.6%
WA UW NCF DSCR: 1.71x
WA Debt Yield (UW NOI): 11.4%
WA Mortgage Rate: 6.286%
WA Remaining Term: 59 months

Property Type Mix
Retail 21.5% | Hospitality 18.7% | Self Storage 16.6% | Multifamily 16.0% | Industrial 13.8% | Office 8.7% | Manufactured Housing 4.7%

Geographic Concentration
CA 22.3% | NY 18.3% | SD 6.8% | DE 5.9% | FL 5.9%

Risk Retention: L-shaped (horizontal + vertical)

Anticipated Settlement: December 23, 2025

Servicing & Parties

Master & Special Servicer: Midland Loan Services (PNC)
Operating Advisor: Park Bridge Lender Services
Data & Analytics Provider: CRED iQ

Key Analysis

BMARK 2025-V19 closed out the 2025 conduit calendar on a strong note, with the entire stack pricing 5–20 bps inside initial guidance — a sign that late-year demand for floating-rate exposure remains robust despite the Fed’s recent rate cuts.

The deal’s 30% credit enhancement to the AAA classes is in line with recent Benchmark vintages and continues to reflect the conservative underwriting that has characterized post-2023 conduit issuance. A WA cut-off LTV of 61.6% with essentially no amortization (maturity LTV unchanged) and a solid 1.71x UW DSCR provide reasonable cushion against near-term stress.

Property-type diversity is better than many recent deals, with no single sector exceeding 22%. The heavier retail (21.5%) and hospitality (18.7%) allocations are notable but mitigated by strong debt yields (11.4% overall) and granular loan sizing (average ~$21 mm).Geographically, the 40.6% combined California + New York concentration is typical for year-end conduits, though the 6.8% South Dakota exposure (likely tied to a large self-storage portfolio) adds an unusual Midwestern tilt.

With this transaction, full-year 2025 U.S. conduit volume ends just under $60 billion — virtually unchanged from 2024 and still roughly 40% below the 2017–2019 average. Expect 2026 to remain range-bound unless material rate relief or a surge in transitional lending sparks a meaningful rebound.

BANK5 2025-5YR19: CMBS New Issuance

By

Michael Haas

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December 10, 2025

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CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis

Deal Overview

Type: Public fixed-rate 5-year conduit CMBS (fully amortizing)
Size: $794.55 MM publicly offered certificates (total pool: $949.07 MM)
Issuance Date: Announced & pricing December 10, 2025 | Expected closing December 23, 2025
Lead Bookrunners: Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo Securities
Co-Managers: AmeriVet Securities, Siebert Williams Shank

Key Pool Characteristics

Number of loans/properties: 35 loans / 85 properties
WA Coupon: 6.3181%
WA Cut-off LTV: 60.0%
WA UW NCF DSCR: 1.63×
WA UW NOI Debt Yield: 11.0%
WA Original Term / Amortization: 60 months / 60 months (100% fully amortizing)
Top 10 loans concentration: 54.2%
Loan sellers: Wells Fargo (32.0%), Bank of America (31.7%), Morgan Stanley (24.7%), JPMorgan Chase (11.6%)
Top states: CA (21.4%), NY (20.1%), VA (14.4%), FL (10.0%), TX (8.7%)
Top property types: Multifamily (27.8%), Retail (26.6%), Hotel (17.1%), Manufactured Housing (11.0%), Self-Storage (10.6%)
Risk Retention: Eligible Vertical Interest (EVI)

Servicing & Parties

Master Servicer: Trimont LLC
Special Servicer: Torchlight Loan Servicers, LLC
Data & Analytics Provider: CRED iQ

Notable: One of the very few fully amortizing 5-year fixed-rate conduits to price in 2025 and the final new-issue conduit of the year. Tight credit band (60% LTV, 11% NOI debt yield, 1.63× DSCR) reflects the highly selective lending environment for short-duration paper. Heavy combined retail + hotel exposure (43.7%) in total pool, likely higher in top 10) stands out in an otherwise conservative structure.

Key Analysis

Credit Quality and Metrics: The pool is deliberately underwritten to a tight credit profile typical of 5-year money, with rapid de-levering from full amortization (projected pool LTV 30% at maturity). The 11.0% NOI debt yield is among the strongest seen in recent 5-year deals, though the 1.63× NCF DSCR is thin by 7/10-year standards — a function of elevated 5-year rates (6.32%) rather than aggressive advance rates. Top-10 concentration is moderate at 54.2%, providing reasonable granularity for a 35-loan pool.

Property Type Exposure: Multifamily (27.8%) and retail (26.6%) dominate, followed by a meaningful hotel sleeve (17.1%). The retail exposure is likely anchored/grocery or necessity-based given the low LTV and strong debt yield, while the hotel piece introduces the most cyclical risk in a 5-year bullet-like payoff structure (despite amortization). Manufactured housing (11.0%) and self-storage (10.6%) add stable, cash-flowing collateral with low operating-expense volatility.

Geographic Concentration: Well diversified across top five states (none >21.4%), with exposure skewed toward coastal and Sunbelt growth markets (CA, NY, VA, FL, TX = 74.6% combined). Minimal overlap with recent natural disaster zones.

Structural and Risk Considerations
All loans are non-recourse with standard carve-outs and include TI/LC and capex reserves; partial releases are allowed on select multi-property loans under customary tests. Primary risks stem from the 17.1% hotel and 26.6% retail exposure — cyclical RevPAR sensitivity in hospitality and potential shadow-anchor/tenant-roll issues in retail. These concerns are meaningfully offset by the pool’s tight 60.0% LTV, strong 11.0% NOI debt yield, thick 30% AAA credit enhancement, and 100% five-year full amortization that eliminates maturity risk. A blue-chip originator lineup (WFB, BANA, MS, JPM) and Torchlight’s aligned role as both special servicer and controlling class rep further bolster the structure. Overall, BANK5 2025-5YR19 stands out as one of the most defensive 5-year conduits of 2025.

BANK 2025-BNK51: CMBS New Issuance

By

Michael Haas

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December 10, 2025

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CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis

Deal Overview

Type: Public fixed-rate conduit CMBS

Size: $894.51 MM publicly offered certificates (total pool: $1.0074 Bn)

Issuance Date: Announced Dec 8, 2025 | Pricing week of Dec 8 | Expected closing Dec 23, 2025

Lead Bookrunners: Wells Fargo Securities, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan

Co-Managers: Academy Securities, Drexel Hamilton, Siebert Williams Shank

Download Annex from CRED iQ

Key Pool Characteristics

Number of loans/properties: 74 loans / 91 properties

WA Coupon: 6.1615%

WA Cut-off LTV: 59.5%

WA UW NCF DSCR: 2.83x

WA UW NOI Debt Yield: 19.4%

WA Original Term: 10 years

Top 10 loans concentration: 59.5%

Loan sellers: Morgan Stanley (32.0%), Wells Fargo (24.6%), Bank of America (15.0%), National Cooperative Bank (14.8%), JPMorgan (13.7%)

Top states: NY 30.4%, FL 12.9%, CO 9.9%, CA 9.1%, VA 8.7%

Top property types: Retail 30.7%, Multifamily 19.9%, Office 17.7%, Life Sciences/Industrial 9.9%, Hotel 8.0%

Risk Retention: L-Shaped (horizontal + vertical)

Pricing

Servicing & Parties

Master Servicers: Midland Loan Services (PNC) & National Cooperative Bank

Special Servicers: Rialto Capital Advisors & National Cooperative Bank

Data & Analytics Provider: CRED iQ

Notable: Relatively high retail exposure (30.7%) and meaningful office (17.7%) in a post-COVID environment, but strong credit metrics (59.5% LTV, 2.83× DSCR, 19.4% debt yield) and 30% credit enhancement on the AAA classes.

Key Analysis

Credit Quality and Metrics: The top 10 exhibit solid but varied underwriting, with WA LTV of 58.9% (slightly below pool average) and WA DSCR of 2.02x (below pool’s 2.83x, signaling some stress points). Debt yields are lower at WA 13.0% vs. pool 19.4%, reflecting larger loan sizes and potentially more aggressive structures. Standouts include Brentwood Commons and Market Place Center (both offices with >3.0x DSCR and >17% debt yields), indicating strong cash flow coverage. Conversely, the anchor loan—Sheraton Denver Downtown (9.9% of pool)—raises concerns with a high 76.6% LTV and thin 1.29x DSCR; as a leased-fee hospitality asset, it faces cyclical risks from tourism/occupancy volatility in Denver’s competitive market. Burke Centre (retail, 1.41x DSCR) also warrants monitoring for tenant rollover in a suburban VA strip center.

Property Type Exposure: Retail dominates at ~38% of top 10 balance ($227.6MM across four loans), aligning with the pool’s 30.7% retail tilt but amplifying sector-specific risks like e-commerce disruption and post-pandemic shifts. Premium outlets (Ellenton) and urban retail (4 Union Square South) show resilience with 2.41x and 2.49x DSCRs, but Red Rock Commons’ 1.59x coverage in a smaller Utah market adds vulnerability. Office comprises 32% ($178.5MM), concentrated in high-quality NYC CBD (255 Greenwich, stable 1.98x DSCR) and suburban assets; no major distress noted, but remote work trends could pressure renewals. Hospitality (22%, $134.8MM) is the riskiest slice, with both hotels exposed to RevPAR fluctuations—Sheraton’s elevated LTV amplifies this. Industrial (10%, single portfolio loan) provides diversification with moderate 1.55x DSCR across Midwest logistics properties.

Geographic Concentration: Diversified across 9 states, with no single state exceeding 10% of top 10 (NY at 11.6% via two retail/office loans). East Coast (NY, VA, FL, IL: ~33%) and West/Southwest (CO, CA, UT, TN: ~27%) balance urban/growth markets, while the Midwest industrial portfolio adds logistics stability. This mitigates regional downturns, e.g., no heavy Florida hurricane exposure beyond Ellenton.

Structural and Risk Considerations: All top loans feature non-recourse carve-outs and reserves for TI/LC/RE, with partial releases allowed on multi-property loans like Midwest Industrial. Key risks include hospitality sensitivity (22% exposure) and retail tenant concentration (e.g., Ellenton’s outlet mix). However, strong sponsor lineup (Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo originate 60% of top 10) and 30% CE on AAA tranches provide buffers. Overall, the top 10 support the deal’s investment-grade ratings but underscore the need for vigilant special servicing on lower-DSCR assets like Sheraton and Burke Centre.

CMBS Distress Rate Climbs to 11.6% in November 2025

By

Michael Haas

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December 5, 2025

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The commercial real estate (CRE) sector continues to face headwinds as the latest data from CRED iQ reveals a rise in distress metrics for November 2025. The CRED iQ Overall Distress Rate reached 11.63%, marking an increase from the previous month. This uptick underscores the persistent volatility in the market, driven largely by maturity defaults and sector-specific weakness.

The overall distress rate comprises loans that are either delinquent or specially serviced. For November, the Delinquency Rate stood at 8.78%, while the Specially Serviced Rate was notably higher at 11.21%. The gap between these two metrics suggests that a significant portion of loans are being transferred to special servicing for imminent default risks or modification discussions before they technically fall behind on monthly payments.

Office Sector Remains the Epicenter of Distress

Breaking down the data by property type, the Office sector continues to exhibit the highest level of stress, recording a distress rate of 17.55%. As remote work trends stabilize and lease rollovers occur in a high-interest-rate environment, office valuations face continued pressure.

Following Office, the Multifamily sector posted a distress rate of 10.80%, reflecting struggles with floating-rate debt and operating expense inflation. The Hotel sector also remains in double-digit distress territory at 10.33%, while Retail sits slightly lower at 9.08%. Conversely, niche asset classes continue to outperform; Industrial and Self Storage remain the most resilient sectors, with distress rates of just 1.90% and 0.15%, respectively.

The “Maturity Wall” in Focus

Perhaps the most telling statistic for investors and lenders lies in the payment status of distressed loans. The data highlights that the current distress cycle is overwhelmingly a story of refinancing risk rather than pure cash-flow insolvency.

Non-Performing Matured loans account for the largest share of the distressed universe, comprising 40.81% of all distressed loans. When combined with Performing Matured loans (17.91%), nearly 59% of all distressed CMBS loans are past their maturity date but have failed to pay off the balloon balance. This “maturity wall” indicates that while many properties may generate sufficient cash flow to cover debt service—evidenced by the 17.16% of distressed loans that are technically “Current” on payments—they are unable to secure refinancing in the current capital markets environment.

Outlook

For CRE investors and CMBS bondholders, the November data reinforces the need for careful credit monitoring, particularly in the Office and Multifamily heavy portfolios. With nearly 60% of distressed loans tied to maturity defaults, the market’s ability to clear this backlog will depend heavily on interest rate movements and the willingness of special servicers to extend or modify terms in the coming quarters.

Explore All Distressed Loans

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.

With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.

THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.

Explosive Growth in CRE CLO Leads YoY New Issuance Growth in all Sectors

By

Michael Haas

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November 21, 2025

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With less than two months left in 2025, commercial real estate securitization has already eclipsed the entire 2024 total. Year-to-date issuance through October across Conduit, Single-Borrower Large Loan (SBLL), and CRE CLO reached $127.72 billion — up 9% from the full-year 2024 volume of $116.95 billion.

Volume Breakdown

Segment	2024 Full Year	YTD Oct 2025	YoY Change
Conduit	$32.9B	$26.6B	–19%
SBLL	$73.8B	$75.5B	+2%
CRE CLO	$10.2B	$25.7B	+152%
Total	$116.95B	$127.72B	+9%

Segment Highlights

Single-Borrower Large Loan (SBLL)
SBLL continues to dominate, representing 63% of 2024 issuance and 59% so far in 2025. Trophy assets, portfolio refinancings, and large transitional properties keep driving mega-deals in the $500M–$2B+ range.

CRE CLO
The standout story of 2025: CRE CLO volume has surged more than 2.5× from the entire 2024 total. Floating-rate, transitional loans are back in demand as interest rates stabilize, and investors chase higher yields in a lower-rate environment.

Conduit
Traditional multi-borrower conduit deals are the only segment trailing 2024’s pace. Through October, volume sits at $26.6B versus $32.9B for all of last year. Heightened caution around office exposure and multifamily supply concerns have slowed the conduit pipeline, though agency-backed multifamily deals continue to provide a floor.

The Big Picture

The shift is clear: capital is rotating decisively into SBLL and especially CRE CLO structures. Investors and lenders are favoring larger, more concentrated executions and floating-rate product over diversified fixed-rate conduit pools — at least for now.

CRED iQ CRE Market Snapshot

Rates have eased significantly YoY: 10-Year Treasury 4.08% (-20 bps), 1M Term SOFR 3.98% (-68 bps), Fed Funds 3.75-4.00% (-100 bps). Inflation continues to cool (CPI 3.0%, Core PCE 2.9%).

Agency CMBS (Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie) jumped 35% to $122.5B, led by multifamily.

Cap rates held flat nationally at 6.3% (office 7.1%, multifamily 5.6%). CRE debt outstanding reached $6.2T (2Q25), with banks at 49%, agency 17%, life companies 12%, CMBS 11%.

2025 maturities total $957B (banks $452B, CMBS/CRE CLO $231B), with $4.8T looming through 2027+. Lending share in 1H25 shows CMBS rebounding to 21% (from 11% in 2023), while agency slipped to 20%.

Bottom line: Lower rates and strong CRE CLO/SASB activity are driving a clear issuance rebound heading into year-end.

CRED iQ tracks every loan in these transactions with daily surveillance, distress flags, and valuation updates. Log into the platform for full deal documents, servicer commentary, and property-level performance on the $127B+ issued YTD.

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About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.

With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.

THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.

Announcing BANK5 2025-5YR18

By

Michael Haas

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November 17, 2025

0

A CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis

DATA HEREIN PROVIDED TO CRED IQ IS FROM A PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS AND MAY BE AMENDED OR SUPPLEMENTED PRIOR TO TIME OF SALE

Access Loan Details

Deal Overview

The BANK5 2025-5YR18 CMBS deal is a new issuance securitization for the CMBS market, with a total pooled balance of $709.9 million. The deal is jointly managed by prominent financial institutions including Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. The deal is collateralized by 29 loans and secured by 72 properties across a variety of sectors, including multifamily, hospitality, and retail. The strategic geographic distribution of these properties ensures balanced exposure across major markets. The deal’s weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 58.1%, and the weighted average mortgage interest rate is 6.15%.

Key Metrics

The loan pool for BANK5 2025-5YR18 is structured to include a mix of amortizing and interest-only loans, with 22.4% of the mortgage pool having scheduled amortization. The remainder of the pool (77.6%) consists of interest-only payments throughout the loan term, offering investors a steady income stream. The pool boasts a weighted average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.84. The weighted average net operating income (NOI) debt yield is 12.6%.

Geography & Property Types

A key strength of the BANK5 2025-5YR18 CMBS deal is its diverse property type distribution, which enhances portfolio resilience. Multifamily properties constitute 24.9% of the total balance, while hospitality properties account for 19.3% of the balance. The geographic distribution of the properties across prime markets, including high-growth areas in New York City, Tampa, and Albuquerque.

Access Loan Details

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.

With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.

THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.

CRE CLO Distress Rate hits the Lowest Level of 2025 While Non-Performing Maturities Soar

By

Michael Haas

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November 13, 2025

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The CRED iQ CRE CLO distressed rate notched its second consecutive reduction, reaching the lowest mark of 2025. CRE CLO issuance year-to-date as of November 2025 totals $25 billion, which compares to $8.7 billion, this same time last year, showing a remarkable rebound for the sector. Meanwhile, loans that have passed their maturity dates grew and non-performing matured loans added a whopping 720 basis points (BPS) to 43.0%.

Delinquency and Special Servicing Dynamics

The CRED iQ distressed rate compressed for the second consecutive month to 10.7% in October, down 82 basis points (BPS) MoM and 144 bps year-over-year from October 2024’s 12.1%.

The CRE CLO delinquency (DQ) rates in CRE CLOs ticked down to 8.5% in October from 9.2% in September, marking a month-over-month (MoM) decline of 76 BPS. This follows a volatile 2025, where DQ peaked at 12.2% in February before easing. The CRE CLO special servicing (SS) rate added 5 BPS to 7.3% from 7.2%.

Payment Status Breakdown

Payment statuses reveal a maturing portfolio, with 66.3% of ALA in matured loans ($3.8 billion), split between performing (23.3%) and non-performing (43.0%) categories. Current loans shaved 100 BPS to18.2% ($1.0 billion), while late payments (<30 days DQ jumped from 0.5% in September to 2.5% ($142 million). Delinquent loans saw a reduction from 19.0% in September to 13.0% in this October print.

Case Study

A $70.3 million loan backed by Outlook DTC, a 242-unit multifamily property in Denver’s Southeast submarket, has fallen to non-performing matured status after failing to pay off at its October 2025 maturity. The loan was added to the servicer’s watchlist in August 2025 due to declining occupancy and approaching maturity. The property most recently reported an occupancy of 79.8% and a DSCR of 0.77, signaling continued cash flow stress ahead of default.

Explore All CRE CLO Distressed Loans

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.

With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.

THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.

CRED iQ Distress Update: October Rate Climbs to 11.4%, Nearing All-Time High

By

Michael Haas

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November 7, 2025

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CMBS investors tracking distress signals saw the CRED iQ distressed rate rise 13 basis points in October to 11.41%, reversing half of September’s 50 bps decline and inching closer to the cycle peak. Our analysis covers approximately $600 billion in private-label CMBS conduit and SASB loans, providing a granular view of sector performance and loan-level risks. The delinquency rate held steady at 8.59%, while the specially serviced rate increased 38 bps to 11.00%. This uptick reflects ongoing resolution challenges, particularly for matured loans. CRED iQ’s distress rate combines any loan with the special servicer or 30 days delinquent or worse.

Sector Distress Breakdown (October 2025 vs. Q1 2025)

Property Type	October 2025 Distress	Change from Q1 2025
Office	17.5%	-170 bps
Hotel	10.4%	-110 bps
Multifamily	10.3%	-270 bps
Retail	9.2%	+60 bps
Manufactured Housing	1.8%	N/A
Industrial	1.5%	+100 bps
Self-Storage	0.1%	-170 bps

Office continues to dominate distress at 17.5%, driven by hybrid work trends and maturing debt. Hotels (10.4%) and multifamily (10.3%) remain elevated but have improved since March, benefiting from seasonal demand and rent growth stabilization. Retail’s 9.2% rate edges higher amid e-commerce pressures. In contrast, industrial (1.5%), manufactured housing (1.8%), and self-storage (0.1%) operate with minimal stress, underscoring their resilience in a high-rate environment.

Payment Status Insights from Distressed Loans

Current: 21.5%
Late but less than 30 Days: 3.3%
30 Days DQ: 4.4%
60 Days DQ: 2.0%
90+ Days DQ: 11.8%
Performing Matured: 16.3%
Non-Performing Matured: 40.9%

The shift toward non-performing matured loans signals mounting extension risks and potential forced sales ahead of 2026 maturities. For investors, these metrics highlight selective opportunities in underperforming offices and hotels, while favoring allocations to industrial and self-storage.

Informed with CRED iQ

As the CRE sector continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, CRED iQ’s comprehensive analytics offer a critical resource for decision-makers. For a deeper dive into our data or to discuss how these trends impact your portfolio, contact our team today. Stay tuned for our next update, where we’ll continue to track the metrics driving the CMBS market.

For more information, visit CRED-iQ.com or reach out to our research team at Team@CRED-iQ.com.

Explore All Distressed Loans

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.

With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.

THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.