At Mueller Flats in Austin, the borrower told its servicer that occupancy across the local market is averaging in the low 80s and that competitors are offering up to three months of free rent. Mueller Flats is offering up to four weeks. Occupancy on the $40.2 million Freddie Mac loan has fallen to 76% from 84% a year ago, and debt service coverage to 0.60x from 0.92x.
Most apartment owners are not losing tenants. They are paying to keep them. Across 7,597 securitized apartment loans with 2026 statements, median occupancy was 94%, unchanged from a year earlier. Revenue rose just 1.0% while expenses rose 2.5%, leaving net operating income down 0.2%. Revenue fell outright in 29 of 69 metro areas with at least 20 loans.
Where Revenue Is Falling
Denver is the weakest large market. Revenue fell 5.4% and NOI 11.8%, though median occupancy barely moved. Austin revenue fell 5.1% and NOI 10.8%. Phoenix, San Antonio and Las Vegas are down 2.4%, 2.9% and 1.6%. In Denver, 38 of 138 loans now cover less than 1.0x debt service, up from 20. In Austin it is 39 of 87, up from 20. Coastal and Midwest markets are still growing: revenue rose 6.8% in San Francisco, 3.6% in New York and 2.6% in Chicago.
| Metro | Loans | Revenue | Expenses | NOI | Median occupancy | Loans below 1.0x DSCR (year ago) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 138 | -5.4% | +3.9% | -11.8% | 93% | 38 (20) |
| Austin | 87 | -5.1% | -0.9% | -10.8% | 91% | 39 (20) |
| San Antonio | 104 | -2.9% | -1.8% | -4.3% | 91% | 31 (21) |
| Phoenix | 201 | -2.4% | +2.4% | -5.6% | 93% | 26 (22) |
| Las Vegas | 112 | -1.6% | +5.0% | -5.7% | 92% | 4 (6) |
| Tampa | 118 | -1.1% | +2.0% | -3.9% | 93% | 4 (5) |
| Dallas-Fort Worth | 350 | -1.0% | +0.9% | -3.3% | 92% | 63 (59) |
| Atlanta | 249 | -0.4% | +0.9% | -1.7% | 93% | 33 (39) |
| Houston | 302 | -0.2% | -1.3% | +1.0% | 93% | 38 (38) |
| Chicago | 140 | +2.6% | +1.9% | +3.2% | 95% | 15 (14) |
| Los Angeles | 325 | +3.0% | +2.2% | +3.5% | 96% | 29 (28) |
| New York | 540 | +3.6% | +4.8% | +2.8% | 99% | 64 (58) |
| San Francisco | 83 | +6.8% | +2.1% | +10.9% | 96% | 25 (30) |
| All markets | 7,597 | +1.0% | +2.5% | -0.2% | 94% | 773 (726) |
What Owners Are Offering
Servicer commentary shows how the occupancy is being held. In October, 6.8% of Freddie Mac apartment watchlist comments mentioned concessions or free rent, up from 3.8% a year earlier. Across all deal types that is 294 loans with $6.3 billion of balance. Dallas-Fort Worth has the most with 33, followed by Denver (31), Austin (30), San Antonio (20) and Houston (19). More than half were not citing concessions in July.
The offers are specific. Broadstone Energy Park in Houston is giving six weeks free on every unit and eight on long-vacant ones. Antero Apartments in Colorado Springs is offering two months, and its coverage has slipped to 0.98x. At Prose Westover Hills in San Antonio, where the offer is about eight weeks, the borrower told the servicer it expects concessions to remain prevalent.
| Property | Market | Deal | Loan ($M) | Concession reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domain Oakland | Oakland, Calif. | FREMF 2018-KF48 | 79.8 | 4 to 6 weeks free, described as the market standard |
| The Urban | Phoenix | FREMF 2023-K509 | 61.4 | Up to 6 weeks free, application and administrative fees waived |
| Broadstone Energy Park | Houston | FREMF 2024-K164 | 48.1 | 6 weeks free on all units, 8 weeks on long-vacant units |
| Antero Apartments | Colorado Springs, Colo. | FREMF 2017-K63 | 40.4 | Two months free |
| Mueller Flats | Austin | FREMF 2019-K100 | 40.2 | Up to 4 weeks free; competitors up to 3 months |
| Prose Westover Hills | San Antonio | FREMF 2024-KF163 | 33.6 | About 8 weeks free plus gift cards |
| Bel Air Keystone Ranch | Dallas | FREMF 2021-KF113 | 28.7 | In line with competitors at 4 to 10 weeks free |
| Kinwood Apartments | McKinney, Texas | FRETE 2024-ML23 | 28.1 | Up to 8 weeks free and reduced rents |
Into the Slow Season
The timing matters. The share of comments citing concessions climbed from 4.2% in March to 6.8% in October, straight through the spring and summer, when leasing demand is normally strongest. A year ago it went the other way, easing from 4.6% in July to 3.8% in October. And because nearly all 2026 statements run only through June, the summer’s free rent is not yet in reported revenue.
The Takeaway
Occupancy is the wrong gauge for apartments right now. Buildings are full because owners are discounting, and the discounts grew during the months that usually favor landlords. Leasing slows from here through winter, which leaves owners in Denver, Austin and much of Texas choosing between more free rent and more vacancy. Either choice shows up in second-half revenue, and in coverage on loans that are already thin.
Source: CRED iQ proprietary loan-level analytics, November 2026. Multifamily loans in Freddie Mac, conduit and single-asset/single-borrower securitizations, October 2026 remittance. Operating results compare servicer-reported 2026 statements, nearly all through June, with the same period a year earlier for the same single-property loans. Concession share = Freddie Mac multifamily watchlist comments that mention concessions or free rent, as a share of all such comments. Offers are as relayed in servicer commentary. October figures are preliminary.
