To Err is Human, To Mod is Bank

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August 13, 2026

CRE Loan Modifications: May–July 2026 Report

Summary. CRED iQ tracked 82 modified CMBS and CRE CLO loans with a combined $2.36 billion in outstanding balance from May through July 2026. The mix looks different than it did a few quarters ago: extend-and-pretend hasn’t disappeared, but it’s no longer the whole story. Forbearances and combination modifications are now carrying meaningful weight alongside straight maturity extensions, and the balance is concentrated in mid-size loans rather than mega-loans. The property type with the most modifying isn’t hotels or office anymore — it’s multifamily.

Overview of Recent Modification Activity

Of the $2.36 billion modified during the period, maturity date extensions remained the single largest category: 21 loans totaling $802.5 million, or 34.0% of modified balance (25.6% of the loan count). Forbearances followed at 15 loans and $514.0 million (21.8% of balance), while combination modifications — deals pairing an extension with other relief, such as a paydown, rate adjustment, or reserve requirement — accounted for 10 loans and $345.6 million (14.7% of balance). The remaining 36 loans, $695.4 million (29.5% of balance), fell into other or miscellaneous modification categories.

Taken together, extensions, forbearances, and combination mods — the categories most closely associated with lenders buying time on distressed collateral — made up 70.5% of modified balance this period, down from the near-universal “extend and pretend” theme of recent reports. Lenders appear to be reaching for a broader toolkit than a simple maturity push.

Modifications by Property Type

Multifamily loans led modification activity by a wide margin, a shift from the hotel- and office-driven distress of previous quarters:

Multifamily: 35 loans totaling $1.14 billion (48.4% of modified balance)
Hotel: 15 loans totaling $493.8 million (20.9%)
Retail: 6 loans totaling $236.7 million (10.0%)
Office: 17 loans totaling $226.2 million (9.6%)
Mixed Use: 5 loans totaling $160.5 million (6.8%)
Other: 3 loans totaling $67.6 million (2.9%)
Industrial: 1 loan totaling $31.2 million (1.3%)

Multifamily’s rise to the top of the modification table is notable given the sector’s reputation for relative stability earlier in the cycle. Rate resets on floating-rate loans and slower rent growth in oversupplied metros appear to be catching up with borrowers who underwrote to more favorable financing conditions. Hotel remains a source of distress, at roughly a fifth of modified balance. Office, long the poster child for CRE distress, accounted for under 10% of modified balance this period — a smaller share than either multifamily or hotel.

Modifications by Loan Size

Unlike the prior report, where loans of $100 million or more drove the bulk of modified balance, mid-size loans dominate this period:

$20M–$50M: 38 loans totaling $1.22 billion (51.7% of modified balance)
$50M–$100M: 8 loans totaling $554.3 million (23.5%)
$100M+: 2 loans totaling $280.0 million (11.9%)
$10M–$20M: 18 loans totaling $275.1 million (11.7%)
Under $10M: 16 loans totaling $28.8 million (1.2%)

Loans of $50 million and above make up 35.4% of modified balance, but the majority of activity — both by count and by dollars — now sits in the $20M–$50M range. The average modified loan balance was $28.7 million; the median was $23.1 million, reinforcing that this period’s distress is showing up in the broad middle of the market rather than in a handful of trophy-asset workouts.

Key Findings

The May–July 2026 data points to a modification landscape that’s broadening rather than concentrating. Multifamily has overtaken hotel and office as the property type generating the most modification activity, a reminder that distress rotates across sectors as financing conditions and local fundamentals shift. The loan-size distribution has also flattened: rather than a small number of massive loans accounting for most of the dollar volume, mid-size loans in the $20M–$50M band now carry the largest share of modified balance. And the modification toolkit itself looks more varied, with forbearances and combination structures closing the gap on the maturity extensions that once defined “extend and pretend.”

None of this means distress has eased — $2.36 billion in loans needed some form of relief over three months, and more than 70% of that balance came in the form of extensions, forbearances, or combination modifications built to buy borrowers’ time. But the shape of that distress has changed, and lenders and borrowers alike appear to be working from a wider set of options than a maturity date extension alone.

About CRED iQ. CRED iQ manages access to over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans and provides data analytics serving investors, lenders, and brokers in the commercial real estate sector.

Methodology note: Loan-level modification activity was aggregated from property-level servicer data by deal and loan ID. Where a single loan spans multiple properties, the loan was assigned to the property type representing the largest share of allocated balance. Loans with no usable property-level detail in the underlying data (14 loans, $582.4 million) were excluded from this report. The state map reflects property-level allocated balance rather than loan-level totals, since a single loan can span multiple states.

CRE & CMBS Distress Report: Top 50 U.S. Metro Rankings and What’s Driving Them

By

Liam Mulcahy

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August 7, 2026

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CMBS Distress Rate Rankings: Top 50 U.S. Metros — July 2026 — Top 50 U.S. metros by balance-weighted CMBS distress rate, July 2026 reporting period.

Across the 50 largest CMBS markets, $45.8 billion of $393.5 billion in outstanding balance is currently distressed, a balance-weighted rate of 11.6%. Minneapolis (55.1%), Denver (35.9%), and Oklahoma City (34.1%) lead the rankings, each shaped by a handful of very large loans rather than broad weakness, while Salt Lake City sits at zero, the cleanest metro in the Top 50. Underneath it all, the property type driving distress has shifted: multifamily distress has more than doubled since February, from 6.0% to 13.0%, while office has eased from 21.2% to 16.7%.

1. Top 50 Metros Ranked by Distress Rate

Minneapolis, Denver, and Oklahoma City top the list of most distressed metropolitan areas, followed by Portland (30.6%), Austin (28.7%), and a cluster of Midwest metros—Chicago (26.4%), Cleveland (23.6%), and Milwaukee (23.1%), plus San Francisco (21.5%). At the other end, Phoenix, Boston, Las Vegas, and Orlando sit near 3%, with San Diego (0.4%) and Salt Lake City (0%) as the most stable large markets.

Rank	Metro (MSA)	% Distress	Total Outstanding
1	Minneapolis–St. Paul–Bloomington, MN-WI	55.1%	$4.0B
2	Denver–Aurora–Centennial, CO	35.9%	$3.2B
3	Oklahoma City, OK	34.1%	$0.8B
4	Portland–Vancouver–Hillsboro, OR-WA	30.6%	$2.3B
5	Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos, TX	28.7%	$4.7B
6	St. Louis, MO-IL	26.4%	$2.1B
7	Chicago–Naperville–Elgin, IL-IN	26.4%	$16.6B
8	Cleveland, OH	23.6%	$2.3B
9	Milwaukee–Waukesha, WI	23.1%	$1.5B
10	San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, CA	21.5%	$18.6B
11	Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN	21.2%	$1.6B
12	Hartford–West Hartford–East Hartford, CT	20.6%	$1.0B
13	Birmingham, AL	19.6%	$1.2B
14	Pittsburgh, PA	18.2%	$2.2B
15	Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	16.3%	$11.3B

2. What’s Driving It: Property Type and Region

Office remains the largest source of cumulative distress at 16.7% ($22.5 billion, roughly half of all distressed balance nationally), followed by Mixed Use (14.4%), Multifamily (13.0%), Lodging (10.6%), and Retail (8.8%); Industrial is the clear outperformer at just 1.0%.

Regionally, the Midwest’s ten metros average 22.7% distress, driven by concentrated issues in Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati, while the Northeast, West, and South all cluster near 10%.

3. July Movers and the Trend Since February

In July, 180 loans totaling $992 million newly became distressed—96% of which was multifamily, led by an $84 million Houston apartment loan, with the largest single event a joint $111 million special-servicing transfer of two Santa Monica hotels. Since February, Denver has moved the most of any major metro, jumping 13.5 points (22.4% → 35.9%) on two large office defaults to become the #2 most-distressed market nationally. Minneapolis held steady at #1. Portland and Oklahoma City both improved by several points, while New York, Los Angeles, and Washington DC stayed roughly flat.

The bigger story is the property-type shift: office distress fell nearly five points since February even as multifamily more than doubled.

Deals That Drove Distress in July

Weston Medical Center Apartments (Houston, TX) — $84.0M, newly 60+ days delinquent
Ariza Forest View (Santa Rosa Beach, FL) — $61.0M, newly late (<30 days)
Mirasol (Las Vegas, NV) — $53.1M, newly delinquent at performing maturity
Solaire Bethesda (Bethesda, MD) — $49.6M, newly late (<30 days)
The Sophia Apartments (Dallas, TX) — $38.9M, newly 60+ days delinquent

Other Notable July Movers

Bank of America Tower (Midland, TX) — $19.0M, newly 121+ days delinquent; part of a five-property, ~$43M distressed office portfolio in Midland
Hawthorne At Clairmont (Atlanta, GA) — $36.6M multifamily loan, newly late
Multiple small Brooklyn, NY multifamily loans (836 DeKalb Avenue, 105–107 Vanderveer Street, 431 Grand Street) newly delinquent in July

Source: CRED iQ Proprietary Loan Analytics | Conduit & SBLL | July 2026 | cred-iq.com

Methodology

Distress rate is defined as distressed outstanding loan balance (loans currently delinquent and/or in special servicing) divided by total outstanding loan balance, for CMBS Conduit and SBLL loan pools. Rankings reflect the 50 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas with the largest total CMBS loan balance as of the July 2026 reporting period. Regional groupings assign each metro to a U.S. Census-style region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) based on its primary state. Multi-state metros are attributed to their first-listed state.

CRED iQ provides proprietary CMBS loan-level analytics, distress surveillance, and commercial real estate data to CMBS investors, originators, brokers, and lenders. For access to the underlying loan-level dataset behind this report, visit crediq.com.

CMBS Distress Hits a 2026 High

By

Liam Mulcahy

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July 31, 2026

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CMBS distress climbed to its highest level of 2026 in July, with the Overall Distress Rate reaching 10.91%, the Special Servicing Rate 10.38%, and the Delinquency Rate 8.68% — driven primarily by a sharp jump in special servicing activity. (Source: CRED iQ CMBS Surveillance Data, July 2026 Reporting Period.)

CRED iQ’s July 2026 surveillance data shows the Overall Distress Rate for CMBS climbed to 10.91%, up 22 basis points month-over-month, driven primarily by a 42-bps jump in the Special Servicing Rate to 10.38%. The Delinquency Rate rose more modestly, to 8.68%.

For CRE and CMBS investors, brokers, and lenders trying to separate signal from noise in a choppy market, granularity is everything. CRED iQ’s July 2026 Reporting Period data offers exactly that: a loan-level view of distress across the $600+ billion CMBS universe, broken out by servicing status, deal type, property type, and metro area.

Three Numbers That Matter

Overall Distress Rate (10.91%) captures every loan that is either specially serviced or 30+ days delinquent, the broadest lens on portfolio stress. It has trended upward for three straight months, reversing April’s modest relief (9.97%).

Special Servicing Rate (10.38%) is the more forward-looking indicator, capturing loans referred for workout, modification, or foreclosure, often before a formal delinquency shows up. July’s 42-bps jump was the sharpest single-month move of the year.

Delinquency Rate (8.68%) measures loans actually missing payments. Its steadier 24-bps climb shows that while special servicing referrals are accelerating, the pace of loans going truly non-performing is more gradual, a nuance visible only when the three metrics are tracked separately rather than blended into one headline.

Why the Gap Between Special Servicing and Delinquency Matters

The widening spread between the two rates is itself a signal. When special servicing outpaces delinquency, loans are typically being transferred proactively, tied to upcoming maturities, cash management triggers, or borrower requests for relief, rather than because payments have already stopped. CRED iQ’s deal-type data shows Conduit and SASB loans behaving differently too: Conduit-sourced delinquent balances outpaced SASB in July, even as SASB’s delinquent share of its own pool stayed elevated.

Where the Distress Is Concentrated: Property Type and Metro Breakdown

The blended 10.91% headline masks real dispersion by property type. Office is the clear outlier at a 16.65% distress rate, roughly 53% above the market-wide average, with special servicing, not just missed payments, driving the sector’s stress. Mixed-use (13.01%) and Multifamily (11.21%) also run above the blended rate, while Industrial (2.35%) and Self Storage (0.28%) remain the healthiest major property types by a wide margin.

Distress is similarly uneven across metros. A handful of large markets, concentrated on the West Coast and in the Midwest, are running distress rates more than double the national average, driven almost entirely by special servicing activity rather than outright delinquency. Other major metros remain comfortably below 3%. That spread is the point: a single national number tells CRE and CMBS professionals almost nothing about which specific markets carry the risk.

Why Granularity Wins

Headline distress figures are useful for a quick read, but pricing risk, structuring a bridge loan, or advising a special servicer client requires more. CRED iQ tracks these metrics down to the individual loan, property type, MSA, and servicer, letting users isolate exactly where stress is building instead of relying on a single blended rate.

For CRE investors, brokers, and lenders who need to move from headline to loan-level insight in seconds, CRED iQ’s data and analytics platform is built precisely for that job, turning CMBS surveillance data into decision-ready intelligence.

Source: CRED iQ CMBS Surveillance Data, July 2026 Reporting Period. Descriptive, not a forecast.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is the enterprise data and intelligence platform powering the securitized commercial real estate market, spanning CMBS, SASB, CRE CLO, and GSE/Agency Multifamily. Delivered via web platform, API, bulk feeds, and MCP server, CRED iQ is the data provider of choice for institutional market participants and the canonical data layer for AI-driven CRE workflows. Learn more at www.cred-iq.com.

CRE CLO Collateral Trends: What a Handful of the Latest Deals Reveal

By

Michael Haas

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July 24, 2026

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A handful of the latest CRE CLO deals lean hard into multifamily collateral and full-term interest-only structures. CRED iQ analyzed loan-level collateral across a handful of the latest CRE CLO deals totaling $4.68 billion and 160 loans of collateral, and the profile points to lenders concentrating risk in the sectors and structures they trust most in a higher-rate environment.

What property types dominate the newest CRE CLO deals?

Multifamily anchors the sample. Apartment collateral makes up 79.8% of aggregate balance in the sample, followed by hospitality at 8.1% and industrial at 5.2%. Office, retail, and healthcare each account for roughly one percent or less. The concentration confirms that CRE CLO issuers remain committed to transitional multifamily lending even as other property types stay largely on the sidelines.

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How are the loans structured?

Interest-only terms are nearly universal. Full-term IO loans represent 95% of collateral balance, with the small remainder carrying partial IO or amortization. The structure preserves borrower cash flow during business-plan execution, but it also means principal paydown is minimal until maturity, keeping refinancing pressure front and center. The sampled pools carry a weighted-average spread of 303 basis points over SOFR and a weighted-average coupon near 6.68%.

What does this signal for CRE CLO issuance in 2026?

These deals point to a familiar core: multifamily assets, floating-rate coupons, and IO structures that maximize early cash flow. Future funding commitments total $244 million across these deals, signaling continued appetite to finance value-add and lease-up business plans. Geographic exposure skews toward New York, Florida, and Texas, which together account for more than 43% of balance.

For investors, the takeaway is concentration. These deals offer exposure to a tightly defined slice of the market, and the reliance on full-term IO means credit performance will hinge on borrowers refinancing or selling at maturity rather than deleveraging along the way.

Source: CRED iQ proprietary analytics. Figures reflect loan-level collateral across a sample of recent CRE CLO transactions. Descriptive, not a forecast.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is the enterprise data and intelligence platform powering the securitized commercial real estate market — spanning CMBS, SASB, CRE CLO, and GSE/Agency Multifamily. Delivered via web platform, API, bulk feeds, and MCP server, CRED iQ is the data provider of choice for institutional market participants and the canonical data layer for AI-driven CRE workflows. Learn more at www.cred-iq.com.

Bank Real Estate Credit Since 2019: Where Balances Grew, and by How Much

By

Michael Haas

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July 17, 2026

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A data briefing on the composition of $6.1 trillion in U.S. bank real estate loans

By the CRED iQ Research Team · Bank Loan Analytics

Summary. U.S. bank real estate loan balances totaled $6.14 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Since the first quarter of 2019, the composition of that book has shifted measurably. Multifamily balances grew the fastest in percentage terms, rising about 53%, while the much larger residential book grew about 17%. In dollar terms the ordering differs: core CRE and residential each added more than $440 billion, and multifamily added about $229 billion. This briefing presents the underlying figures and the methodology behind them, without forecast or recommendation.

The data

The figures below draw on CRED iQ bank loan analytics and cover all FDIC-insured commercial, savings, and community banks. Balances are outstanding loan amounts as of quarter-end. Indexing each category to its first-quarter 2019 level (set to 100) isolates growth from the large differences in starting size across property types.

As of the first quarter of 2026, multifamily balances stood at an index of 153 (about 53% above the 2019 level), core CRE at 132 (about 32%), construction and development at 128 (about 28%), and residential at 117 (about 17%). Residential, which comprises 1-4 family residential mortgages and home equity, remained the largest category at $3.10 trillion, roughly half of all bank real estate lending, followed by core CRE at $1.92 trillion, multifamily at $665 billion, and construction at $453 billion.

Percentage growth and dollar growth diverge

Growth measured in percent and growth measured in dollars point to different segments. Residential added approximately $445 billion in outstanding balances since the first quarter of 2019 and core CRE added approximately $467 billion, each exceeding the roughly $229 billion added by multifamily, despite multifamily posting the largest percentage gain. The distinction matters for gauging where the largest absolute exposures have accumulated on bank balance sheets, as opposed to where growth has been proportionally most rapid.

Construction and development: a distinct pattern

Among the four categories, construction and development shows the most pronounced change in direction. Indexed to 2019, construction balances rose to a peak near 142 in 2024 before declining into early 2026, ending at 128. This rise-and-partial-reversal pattern is consistent with a period of expanded development lending that has since moderated. It is specific to the post-2019 window and is not evident in longer time series that are shaped by the sector’s post-2008 contraction and recovery.

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Methodology and definitions

Balances reflect outstanding loans held by FDIC-insured institutions and exclude loans originated and sold into secondary markets. A substantial share of newly originated 1-4 family mortgages is securitized rather than retained on bank balance sheets, which is one factor behind residential’s comparatively modest balance-sheet growth relative to origination activity. Property-type categories follow standard bank regulatory classifications: nonfarm nonresidential (core CRE), multifamily residential, construction and development, and 1-4 family residential plus home equity (residential). Index values are computed as the ratio of each quarter’s balance to the first-quarter 2019 balance, multiplied by 100.

Source: CRED iQ Bank Loan Analytics and Bank Data Analysis, as of Q1 2026. Balances indexed to Q1 2019 = 100. Figures reflect all FDIC-insured commercial, savings, and community banks. This briefing is descriptive and does not constitute a forecast or investment advice.

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CRED iQ Appoints Liam Mulcahy as Senior Product Manager, CRE Data & Applied AI

By

Michael Haas

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July 16, 2026

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Data scientist and CRE technology leader to drive the company’s next generation of AI-powered data products

PHILADELPHIA, PA — CRED iQ, a leading commercial real estate data and analytics platform, today announced the appointment of Liam Mulcahy as Senior Product Manager, CRE Data & Applied AI. In the role, Mulcahy will lead the development of new data and analytics products that pair CRED iQ’s proprietary distress and loan-level intelligence with applied artificial intelligence.

Mulcahy brings a rare combination of data engineering, applied AI, and commercial real estate experience to CRED iQ. He most recently co-founded an AI analytics venture focused on helping commercial real estate firms compete in AI search, where he built multi-model data pipelines spanning the major large language model platforms and a broker-facing analytics dashboard. Earlier, he led revenue and pricing strategy across a 3,500-plus unit multifamily portfolio at Post Brothers, and spent several years at CoStar Group building data automation, business intelligence, and machine learning tools while working directly with brokers, owners, and investors. He holds a Master of Science in Data Science from the University of Virginia.

“The CRE market is moving faster than the tools most firms use to read it, and we don’t close that gap by hiring product managers, we hire people who’ve lived the problem,” said Michael Haas, Founder and CEO of CRED iQ. “Liam has built data systems at CoStar, run revenue for a 3,500-unit portfolio, and shipped AI analytics for CRE. He joins us to pair that experience with our proprietary distress and loan-level data so our clients see risk and opportunity before anyone else does.”

In his new role, Mulcahy will own data and analytics products end to end, partnering across engineering, sales, and customer success. His early focus will include smarter trigger-event detection and new AI-driven ways for CRED iQ customers to work with the company’s data.

“CRED iQ has built something the market genuinely relies on, and the data underneath it is exceptional, and customers want to bring this data into their AI workflows.” said Mulcahy. “The opportunity to apply AI to that foundation, and to build tools that help our customers act faster and with more confidence, is exactly the work I want to be doing. I’m thrilled to join the team.”

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data and analytics platform serving CMBS analysts, special servicers, lenders, brokers, and investors. The company’s proprietary distress and loan-level data gives clients a differentiated, real-time view of the market, powering research, underwriting, and origination workflows. CRED iQ is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

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Bank Multifamily Loan Delinquencies Rise to 1.47% in Q1 2026: CRED iQ Analysis of Bank Data

By

Michael Haas

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July 10, 2026

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CRED iQ Research | Q1 2026 | Multifamily Bank Loan Performance

The overall multifamily delinquency rate at FDIC-insured banks climbed to 1.47% in Q1 2026, up 5 basis points from 1.42% at year-end 2025, according to CRED iQ analysis of the latest Banking data. Delinquent multifamily balances reached $9.78 billion, the largest dollar amount since Q1 2011, even as bank multifamily portfolios continued to expand to a record $665.3 billion.

What Do Banks’ Q1 2026 Numbers Show for Multifamily?

CRED iQ tracks bank multifamily performance across three measures. Loans 30-89 days past due rose to 0.40% of balances, or $2.66 billion, up from 0.38% in Q4 2025. Loans 90+ days past due or in nonaccrual status, the seriously delinquent bucket, rose 3 basis points to 1.07%, with dollar volume increasing to $7.12 billion from $6.86 billion. Combined, the overall delinquency rate of 1.47% matches the Q1 2025 reading and marks the joint-highest level of this cycle. The Banking Report itself flagged multifamily past-due and nonaccrual rates as remaining elevated in its Q1 2026 release.

How Does 1.47% Compare Historically?

Outside of the matching Q1 2025 print, banks have not reported multifamily delinquency this high since Q2 2013, when the industry was still working down Global Financial Crisis credit. Today’s rate remains far below the GFC peak of 5.90% set in Q1 2010, when $12.68 billion was delinquent against a much smaller loan base. The more telling comparison is the cycle low: multifamily delinquency bottomed at just 0.21% in Q3 2019, meaning the current rate is seven times its pre-pandemic trough.

Are Banks Still Growing Their Multifamily Books?

Yes. Multifamily loans outstanding at FDIC-insured institutions rose 0.9% quarter over quarter and 4.1% year over year to $665.3 billion, roughly 3.5 times the $192 billion held in early 2007. Growing denominators have masked some of the dollar deterioration: delinquent balances are up $415 million in a single quarter and now sit at 15-year highs even while the rate itself appears moderate.

What Are Losses Telling Us?

Realized pain remains limited. The multifamily net charge-off rate ran at just 0.11% annualized in Q1 2026, down from 0.13% for full-year 2025. The gap between rising delinquency and muted charge-offs suggests banks are still resolving troubled multifamily credit through extensions and workouts rather than write-downs, a dynamic CRED iQ also observes across CMBS loan modifications.

The Bottom Line

Bank multifamily credit is deteriorating gradually, not collapsing. With $9.78 billion delinquent and balance growth still outpacing resolutions, Q2 2026 data will show whether the seasonal Q1 bump fades or compounds. Explore the full interactive tracker and request the underlying data at cred-iq.com.

Source: CRED iQ analysis of all FDIC-insured institutions, multifamily residential real estate loans, Q1 2007 through Q1 2026.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is the enterprise data and intelligence platform powering the securitized commercial real estate market — spanning CMBS, SASB, CRE CLO, and GSE/Agency Multifamily. Delivered via web platform, API, bulk feeds, and MCP server, CRED iQ is the data provider of choice for institutional market participants and the canonical data layer for AI-driven CRE workflows. Learn more at www.cred-iq.com.

Freddie Mac K-Series Underwriting in 2026: What Eight New Multifamily Securitizations Reveal About Credit Discipline and the Road Ahead

By

Michael Haas

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June 26, 2026

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CRED iQ Research | Proprietary Multifamily & CMBS Loan Analytics

Across eight Freddie Mac multifamily securitizations priced in early 2026, underwriting has tightened decisively: weighted-average debt service coverage on the conduit K-series sits at 1.41x against a 63.9% loan-to-value, with full-term or partial interest-only structures attached to roughly 95% of balance.

CRED iQ analyzed the loan-level annexes behind FREMF 2026-K179, K180, K561, K562, K563, K766, the floating-rate KF172, and the small-balance Q040, representing 472 loans and more than $7.2 billion in unpaid principal. The picture that emerges is a market that has repriced risk without abandoning leverage, leaning on interest-only relief to keep coverage above water while the rate curve stays elevated. Below we walk the dominant underwriting themes, the originators driving the volume, three loans that bring those themes to life, and where the second half of 2026 is likely headed.

What are the dominant underwriting themes in the 2026 Freddie K-series?

Coverage is being manufactured through structure, not cash flow. Fixed-rate K-deals cleared with weighted DSCRs between 1.35x and 1.51x, but those figures lean heavily on interest-only periods. Full-term IO carried about 30% of K-series balance and partial IO another 65%, meaning amortizing dollars are now the exception rather than the rule. Strip the IO benefit away and several loans underwrite near or below 1.20x on a fully amortizing basis.

Leverage held, pricing did the adjusting. Weighted LTVs clustered in the low-to-mid 60s across the fixed-rate book, in line with historical Freddie discipline. What moved was coupon: gross rates ranged from roughly 4.9% on the cleanest refinances to 5.66% on the floating KF172 pool. Acquisition activity made up about 40% of K-series balance, a healthy sign that transaction volume is returning even as borrowers absorb higher carry.

The floating-rate pool is where the stress concentrates. KF172 underwrote to a 1.21x weighted DSCR and a 68.7% LTV, the thinnest and most levered of the group, with every loan carrying SOFR-based pricing and mandatory rate caps. This is the segment to watch: coverage that looks adequate on an IO basis compresses fast if SOFR stays sticky into refinancing windows.

Who are the top originators in the 2026 K-series?

Origination is concentrated among a handful of agency specialists. CBRE Capital Markets leads with roughly $1.42 billion across the eight deals, about 20% of pooled balance, followed by Berkadia at $1.05 billion and Walker & Dunlop at $680 million. Those three alone account for more than 43% of issuance. JPMorgan Chase ranks fourth by balance but first by loan count, driven by its 228 small-balance loans in the Q040 pool. JLL, PNC Bank, Capital One, Lument, KeyBank, and PGIM round out the top ten.

The credit signal is in the spread between shops. PNC Bank’s book carries the strongest weighted coverage among large originators at 1.61x, while Lument’s sits at 1.29x, reflecting a more leveraged, IO-heavy mix. CBRE and Berkadia, the two largest, underwrite near the pool average at 1.43x and 1.35x respectively. The takeaway: balance leadership and credit conservatism are not the same thing, and the originators pushing the most paper are not always the ones pushing the thinnest coverage.

Which loans best illustrate how 2026 deals are being underwritten?

Three loans capture the spread of risk appetite in these pools, from conservative refinance to leveraged value-add acquisition.

Centerpointe II (K179)	Rodgers Forge (K180)	Canterbury Green (KF172)
Irvine, CA — refinance	Baltimore, MD — acquisition	Fort Wayne, IN — acquisition
$140.1M balance	$78.9M balance	$159.9M balance
1.48x DSCR / 64.9% LTV	1.28x DSCR / 73.4% LTV	1.17x DSCR / 74.1% LTV
Full-term IO, 5.11% fixed	Partial IO, 5.20% fixed	Floating, 30-day SOFR + 1.87%
Built 2015, 372 units	Built 1945, 498 units	Built 1970, 2,000 units

Centerpointe II is the template for a clean 2026 refinance. A 2015-vintage Irvine asset at 95.4% occupancy, it carries a full-term interest-only loan at a 1.48x DSCR and a conservative 64.9% LTV against a $216 million appraisal. The borrower is not stretching; the IO simply preserves cash flow at a 5.11% coupon. This is the kind of credit Freddie can underwrite all day.

Rodgers Forge shows the cost of acquiring older product. The 1945-built, 498-unit Baltimore property was renovated in 2010 and trades at a 73.4% LTV with a partial-IO structure that lifts coverage to 1.60x during the IO window but settles to 1.28x once amortization begins. At a $158,000 balance per unit it is reasonably priced, yet the amortizing coverage leaves little room if expenses on a 1940s asset surprise to the upside.

Canterbury Green is the pool’s pressure point. At $159.9 million it is the single largest loan across all seven deals, a 2,000-unit Fort Wayne acquisition underwritten to just 1.17x amortizing coverage and a 74.1% LTV on floating-rate debt indexed to 30-day SOFR. The interest-only DSCR of 1.42x masks how thin the amortizing math is. A rate cap is required, but cap protection expires, and refinancing 2,000 units of 1970s garden product into a higher-for-longer curve is precisely the scenario that keeps credit officers up at night.

What does this mean for the second half of 2026?

We expect interest-only reliance to peak and then retreat. Lenders cannot keep pushing coverage uphill on IO alone; as the curve normalizes, look for amortizing structures to creep back into K-deals and for full-term IO to fall below a quarter of balance by year-end.

The floating-rate book will define the next distress cycle, if there is one. CRED iQ’s view is that fixed-rate K-series credit is sound, but pools like KF172 concentrate the refinancing and cap-expiry risk. Watch the sub-1.25x amortizing coverage loans in Florida and the Midwest garden segment; that is where any 2026 deterioration shows up first.

Acquisition volume keeps building. With acquisitions already near 40% of K-series balance and refinances pricing cleanly in the high-4% to low-5% range, transaction activity should accelerate into the back half of the year. Our bold call: by Q4 2026, acquisition share of new K-series issuance crosses 50% for the first time since the rate shock, signaling that multifamily price discovery has finally caught up to the cost of capital.

The bottom line: Freddie’s 2026 underwriting is disciplined on leverage, aggressive on structure, and quietly concentrating its real risk in the floating-rate corner of the program. The fixed-rate book should perform. The floating-rate book is the one to model loan by loan.

Data attributed to CRED iQ proprietary loan analytics. Figures are balance-weighted across loan-level annex disclosures for FREMF 2026-K179, K180, K561, K562, K563, K766, KF172, and Q040. cred-iq.com

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is the enterprise data and intelligence platform powering the securitized commercial real estate market — spanning CMBS, SASB, CRE CLO, and GSE/Agency Multifamily. Delivered via web platform, API, bulk feeds, and MCP server, CRED iQ is the data provider of choice for institutional market participants and the canonical data layer for AI-driven CRE workflows. Learn more at www.cred-iq.com.

CMBS Distress Rate Climbs to 11.86% in May 2026

By

Michael Haas

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June 18, 2026

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CRED iQ’s overall CMBS distress rate rose to 11.86% in May 2026, up from 11.08% in April, as both special servicing and delinquency moved higher across the Conduit and SASB universe. The reversal erased April’s brief improvement and pushed distress back toward the cyclical highs observed across the trailing twelve months. Viewed over a longer horizon, the trajectory is unmistakable: the overall distress rate has more than doubled since mid-2022, when it sat near 5%, underscoring that resolution activity is not yet keeping pace with new transfers into distress.

What is the CRED iQ distress rate?

CRED iQ defines its overall distress rate as the balance-weighted share of loans that are either delinquent, in special servicing, or both. This combined lens captures stress that headline delinquency figures alone can miss, because a loan can transfer to a special servicer for imminent default, maturity default, or covenant breaches well before it misses a payment. Measured across the full Conduit and SASB universe, the May 2026 reading reflects a broad, balance-weighted view of credit performance rather than a simple loan count.

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How did the three distress metrics move in May 2026?

All three core measures CRED iQ tracks turned higher month-over-month:

Overall distress rate: 11.86%, up 78 basis points from 11.08% in April.
Special servicing rate: 11.25%, up 64 basis points from 10.61%.
Delinquency rate: 9.53%, up 58 basis points from 8.95%.

The persistent gap between the special servicing rate and the delinquency rate — roughly 170 basis points in May — signals that a meaningful share of distressed balance is being actively worked out by servicers before, or instead of, becoming payment-delinquent. For investors and lenders, that spread is a leading indicator worth monitoring as 2026 and 2027 maturities approach.

Which property types are driving CMBS distress?

Office remains the clear epicenter of distress at a 17.11% distress rate — the most troubled major segment. Mixed-use follows at 16.12%, while lodging (12.27%) sits above the overall average. Multifamily distress reached 10.95% as elevated rates continue to pressure floating-rate and bridge financing. At the opposite end, the resilience leaders are striking: self storage (0.15%), industrial (1.04%), and manufactured housing (1.19%) all remain near-pristine, reflecting durable demand fundamentals and stable, granular cash flows.

Property Type	Distress	Special Servicing	Delinquency
Office	17.11%	16.83%	13.91%
Mixed Use	16.12%	14.41%	14.23%
Lodging	12.27%	10.18%	9.49%
Multifamily	10.95%	10.36%	8.67%
Retail	9.97%	9.75%	7.32%
Warehouse	1.83%	1.83%	1.62%
Manufactured Housing	1.19%	0.00%	1.19%
Industrial	1.04%	0.98%	0.95%
Self Storage	0.15%	0.15%	0.15%

Balance-weighted rates, Conduit + SASB, May 2026 reporting period. Source: CRED iQ proprietary loan analytics.

Why CRED iQ data matters

CRED iQ’s analytics program is built on granular, loan-level data spanning the full Conduit, SASB, Freddie Mac, and CRE CLO universe, refreshed every reporting period and resolvable down to individual loans, properties, and metropolitan markets. Because every metric is balance-weighted and traceable to the underlying collateral, market participants can move beyond headline averages to underwrite distress by property type, vintage, servicer, and geography. For CRE and CMBS investors, brokers, and lenders, that level of transparency turns distress monitoring into an actionable edge — identifying troubled credits, surfacing workout opportunities, and benchmarking portfolios against the broader market in real time.

Source: CRED iQ proprietary loan analytics | Reporting period: May 2026 | cred-iq.com

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is the enterprise data and intelligence platform powering the securitized commercial real estate market — spanning CMBS, SASB, CRE CLO, and GSE/Agency Multifamily. Delivered via web platform, API, bulk feeds, and MCP server, CRED iQ is the data provider of choice for institutional market participants and the canonical data layer for AI-driven CRE workflows. Learn more at www.cred-iq.com.

The Negative Leverage Divide: What 2026’s Newest CMBS Loans Reveal About Cap Rates, Coupons, and Credit

By

Michael Haas

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June 12, 2026

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CRED iQ analyzed $26.1 billion of the most recently issued loans securitized in 2026 across CMBS conduit, single-asset/single-borrower (SASB), Freddie Mac, and CRE CLO transactions — and the data exposes a market split cleanly in two. On a balance-weighted basis, the average cap rate on newly originated collateral now sits almost exactly on top of the average mortgage coupon, meaning the typical 2026 borrower is financing at roughly zero positive leverage. Where a property sits relative to that line depends almost entirely on property type.

What Are Cap Rates on New CMBS Loans in 2026?

Cap rates on 2026 new-issue collateral range from 5.41% to 8.02% by property type, according to CRED iQ’s proprietary loan analytics. The balance-weighted rankings:

Hospitality — 8.02% (coupon 6.78%)
Office — 7.45% (coupon 6.50%)
Retail — 6.81% (coupon 6.61%)
Mixed Use — 6.10% (coupon 6.53%)
Industrial — 6.03% (coupon 6.33%)
Self Storage — 5.70% (coupon 6.05%)
Multifamily — 5.45% (coupon 5.64%)
Manufactured Housing — 5.41% (coupon 6.27%)

Within subtypes, the dispersion widens further. Super-regional malls priced at an 8.94% weighted cap rate — nearly 250 basis points above anchored retail centers at 6.48% — while garden multifamily (5.51%) and multifamily cooperatives (4.89%) anchored the low end.

Which Property Types Are Financing at Negative Leverage?

Every “favored” income sector is now borrowing through its cap rate. Manufactured housing (−86 bps), mixed use (−43 bps), self storage (−35 bps), industrial (−30 bps), and multifamily (−19 bps) all carry coupons above their going-in yields. Sponsors are explicitly underwriting NOI growth — or betting on lower refinancing rates — to make the math work. In contrast, hospitality (+124 bps), office (+95 bps), and retail (+20 bps) are the only sectors still delivering positive leverage, compensation for the credit risk lenders perceive there.

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How Conservative Is 2026 Office and Hotel Underwriting?

Extremely. Office loans that cleared the securitization market in 2026 carry a 13.8% weighted NCF debt yield and just 55.4% cut-off LTV — the most conservative credit profile of any major sector. Hospitality runs nearly identical at a 13.8% debt yield. Only well-leased, low-leverage office is getting financed; everything else remains shut out. Multifamily, by comparison, prices at a 9.6% debt yield and 62.9% LTV, with Freddie Mac executions averaging a 4.98% coupon — roughly 145 basis points inside conduit multifamily at 6.44%, a powerful agency funding advantage.

What Does Zero Positive Leverage Mean for CRE Investors?

Three takeaways from CRED iQ’s 2026 new-issue data stand out. First, 56% of new-issue balance is full-term interest-only — borrowers are maximizing cash flow to offset thin leverage spreads. Second, the cap-rate floor has been set by debt costs, not buyer optimism: until coupons fall, multifamily and industrial cap rates have little room to compress. Third, the wide positive leverage in hotels, office, and malls signals where repricing is complete — and where opportunistic credit is being paid to take risk.

All figures are balance-weighted and sourced from the CRED iQ Proprietary Loan Analytics Platform.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is the enterprise data and intelligence platform powering the securitized commercial real estate market — spanning CMBS, SASB, CRE CLO, and GSE/Agency Multifamily. Delivered via web platform, API, bulk feeds, and MCP server, CRED iQ is the data provider of choice for institutional market participants and the canonical data layer for AI-driven CRE workflows. Learn more at www.cred-iq.com.