CRED iQ in the News – July 16, 2025
A CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis
DATA HEREIN PROVIDED TO CRED IQ IS FROM A PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS AND MAY BE AMENDED OR SUPPLEMENTED PRIOR TO TIME OF SALE
Deal Overview
The MSBAM 2025-C35 CMBS deal is a new issuance securitization for the CMBS market, with a total pooled balance of $597.8 million. The deal is jointly managed by prominent financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Citigroup. The deal is collateralized by 40 loans and secured by 65 properties across a variety of sectors, including office, retail, and mixed-use properties. The strategic geographic distribution of these properties ensures balanced exposure across major markets. The deal’s weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 54.5%, and the weighted average mortgage interest rate is 6.52%.
Key Metrics
The loan pool for MSBAM 2025-C35 is structured to include a mix of amortizing and interest-only loans, with 23.8% of the mortgage pool having scheduled amortization. The remainder of the pool (76.2%) consists of interest-only payments throughout the loan term, offering investors a steady income stream. The pool boasts a weighted average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.94. The weighted average net operating income (NOI) debt yield is 14.0%.
Geography & Property Types
A key strength of the MSBAM 2025-C35 CMBS deal is its diverse property type distribution, which enhances portfolio resilience. Office properties constitute 22.3% of the total balance, while retail properties account for 19.4% of the balance. The geographic distribution of the properties across prime markets, including high-growth areas in New York City, Boston, and Washington, DC.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) distress rate shaved 20 basis points to 10.8% in June, according to CRED iQ’s latest analysis. The latest print, albeit modest, represents the fourth distress rate reduction in the past five months.
The underlying metrics also saw decreases as well. Our delinquency rate was reduced by 30 basis points to 8.1% and our special service rate shaved 10 BPS to 10.1%.
A blip on an otherwise positive distress trend, or a sign of more volatility to come. Let’s dig unpack the data for answers.
Distress Rate Trends
CRED iQ’s distress rate, a composite metric capturing loans 30+ days delinquent (or worse) and those in special servicing, came in at 10.8% in the latest reporting period. This follows last month’s 70 BPS increase, which snapped a three-month trend of distress rate reductions.
The CRED iQ research team analyzed the payment status of approximately $58 billion in distressed CMBS loans. The core objective of our research was to achieve a clear view of the current state of payment status reasons and associated near-term trending.
Payment Terms
Our team then explored each payment status reason from a historical perspective. We wanted to understand the trending/evolution of each category dating back to February of 2024. Our team built a heat map which reveals trends for each category, to potential argument current forecasting models.
Current Loans: $9.4 billion in loans were current in June –that is down by ~$1 billion from the May print (17.9% to 16.2%)—partially offsetting the gain of ~$2.1 billion last month.
Delinquent Loans: $16.5 billion (28.3%) of loans are delinquent, including those within grace periods, up from $14.7 billion (25.3%) last month
Matured Loans: $32.4 billion in CMBS loans have passed their maturity date (largely flat from last month). Of these, 18.5% are performing (up from 18.1%), while 37.0% are non-performing (down from 38.6%).
Loan Highlight
The $463 million 5 Bryant Park loan, backed by a 682,988 SF office property in the Times Square South market failed to payoff at the adjusted June 2025 maturity. Originally slated to mature in June 2020, closing documents indicate the loan was subject to five 12-month extension options. The borrower has exercised all five extension periods. Year end 2024 financials reported a DSCR of 0.83 and 81% occupancy.
CRED iQ’s Methodology: A Comprehensive Approach
CRED iQ’s distress rate provides a holistic view of CMBS performance by combining delinquency (30+ days past due) and special servicing activity, including both performing and non-performing loans that fail to pay off at maturity. Our analysis focuses on conduit and single-borrower large loan structures, while separately tracking Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and CRE CLO metrics. This granular approach ensures CRE professionals have a clear, actionable understanding of market dynamics.
Informed with CRED iQ
As the CRE sector continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, CRED iQ’s comprehensive analytics offer a critical resource for decision-makers. For a deeper dive into our data or to discuss how these trends impact your portfolio, contact our team today. Stay tuned for our next update, where we’ll continue to track the metrics driving the CMBS market.
For more information, visit CRED iQ or reach out to our research team.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
A CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis
DATA HEREIN PROVIDED TO CRED IQ IS FROM A PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS AND MAY BE AMENDED OR SUPPLEMENTED PRIOR TO TIME OF SALE
Deal Overview
The WFCM 2025-5C5 CMBS deal is a new issuance securitization for the CMBS market, with a total pooled balance of $596 million. The deal is jointly managed by prominent financial institutions including Wells Fargo, BMO, Citigroup, and UBS. The deal is collateralized by 32 loans and secured by 46 properties across a variety of sectors, including multifamily, industrial, and office. The strategic geographic distribution of these properties ensures balanced exposure across major markets. The deal’s weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 55.3%, and the weighted average mortgage interest rate is 6.74%.
Key Metrics
The loan pool for WFCM 2025-5C5 is structured to include a mix of amortizing and interest-only loans, with 13.6% of the mortgage pool having scheduled amortization. The remainder of the pool (86.4%) consists of interest-only payments throughout the loan term, offering investors a steady income stream. The pool boasts a weighted average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.66. The weighted average net operating income (NOI) debt yield is 12.2%.
Geography & Property Types
A key strength of the WFCM 2025-5C5 CMBS deal is its diverse property type distribution, which enhances portfolio resilience. Multifamily properties constitute 29.3% of the total balance, while industrial properties account for 24.2% of the balance. The geographic distribution of the properties across prime markets, including high-growth areas in New York City, Los Angeles, and Dallas.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
At CRED iQ, our mission is to provide commercial real estate (CRE) professionals with the data and insights needed to navigate an ever-evolving market. This week, our research team took a deep dive into loan delinquency trends, expanding our lens from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) to the present day. By focusing on FDIC-insured commercial banking and savings institutions, which includes community banks, we’ve uncovered critical patterns in CRE loan performance, offering a clearer perspective on today’s marketplace.
A Broader Perspective on CRE Loan Delinquencies
Our analysis spans from March 2007 to March 2025, shifting focus from securitized and agency markets to FDIC-insured institutions. We examined two key segments: Multifamily properties and Core CRE, which includes office, retail, hotel, industrial, self-storage, and other property types. This approach builds on our earlier research, providing a comprehensive view of delinquency trends and their implications for the CRE industry.
Key Findings from Q1 2025
Our analysis revealed several notable trends in loan performance:
Five-Year Comparison: March 2020 to March 2025
To contextualize recent trends, we compared delinquency metrics from March 2020 to March 2025:
These shifts underscore the increasing pressures on CRE loan performance, particularly in the Multifamily sector, where rising delinquencies and losses signal heightened risk.
Why These Insights Matter
For CRE professionals—lenders, investors, brokers, and property managers—understanding delinquency trends is critical for managing risk and identifying opportunities. CRED iQ’s granular data and advanced analytics empower clients to:
CRED iQ: Your Partner in CRE Intelligence
At CRED iQ, we go beyond data aggregation to deliver actionable insights tailored to your needs. Our platform provides comprehensive, real-time data on loan performance, property financials, and market trends, all validated for accuracy and accessible through an intuitive interface. Whether you’re navigating rising delinquencies or seeking growth opportunities, CRED iQ equips you with the tools to stay ahead.
Explore the Data with CRED iQ
Ready to dive deeper into CRE market trends? Visit CRED iQ to explore our platform and discover how our data-driven insights can transform your approach to commercial real estate.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
A CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis
DATA HEREIN PROVIDED TO CRED IQ IS FROM A PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS AND MAY BE AMENDED OR SUPPLEMENTED PRIOR TO TIME OF SALE
Deal Overview
The BANK5 2025-5YR15 CMBS deal is a new issuance securitization for the CMBS market, with a total pooled balance of $556.3 million. The deal is jointly managed by prominent financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America. The deal is collateralized by 31 loans and secured by 68 properties across a variety of sectors, including retail, office, and mixed use. The strategic geographic distribution of these properties ensures balanced exposure across major markets. The deal’s weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 53.5%, and the weighted average mortgage interest rate is 6.54%.
Key Metrics
The loan pool for BANK5 2025-5YR15 is structured to include a mix of amortizing and interest-only loans, with 10.9% of the mortgage pool having scheduled amortization. The remainder of the pool (89.1%) consists of interest-only payments throughout the loan term, offering investors a steady income stream. The pool boasts a weighted average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 2.00. The weighted average net operating income (NOI) debt yield is 13.9%.
Geography & Property Types
A key strength of the BANK5 2025-5YR15 CMBS deal is its diverse property type distribution, which enhances portfolio resilience. Retail properties constitute 34.0% of the total balance, while office properties account for 30.4% of the balance. The geographic distribution of the properties across prime markets, including high-growth areas in New York City, Miami, and Minneapolis.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
Following a dramatic reduction, the commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation (CRE CLO) market saw its distress rate rise by 80 basis points to 13.2% in our latest print. Originations in the sector continue to be robust, so a clear picture is murky at best. Let’s dig in into the data.
Investors hoping for a third consecutive reduction in the CRE CLO distress rate are left a bit disappointed as the benchmark added 80 basis points to close at 13.2% in the May print.
The underlying metrics were mixed with the special serving rate shaving 30 BPS to 7.1% while the all-important delinquency rate added 130 BPS reaching 11.0%.
Sector Velocity
Similar to last month, our research team widened the aperture a bit to examine the velocity of the CRE CLO sector over the past year. Here are some metrics from our study:
Total year-to-date CRE CLO issuance totals $10.5 billion across 11 deals. As a comparison, during the first four months in 2024, CRE CLO volume only totaled $2.2 billion (3 deals), meaning CRE CLO issuance velocities have increased 377% when compared to last year. Indeed, it could be argued that CRE CLO is already hot!
Payment Status
Looking across a wider analysis of payment status reveals ongoing challenges. 64.4% of CRE CLO loans have surpassed their maturity date (up from 63.1% last month). 36.6% are classified as “performing matured –down from 37.3%. This suggests that many borrowers are exercising extension options or negotiating month-to-month arrangements to avoid default.
Precisely half (50.0%) of CRE CLO loans have surpassed their maturity date and are not performing, a new record. This metric was 25.6% in our January print.
14.3% of CRE CLO loans are current—down from 16.8% last month.
Delinquent Loans (Pre-Maturity): Account for 21.3% which is the third consecutive month-over-month increase.
These figures reflect a market grappling with the aftermath of loans originated in 2021-2022, when cap rates were compressed, valuations were elevated, and interest rates were historically low. Many of these loans, structured with floating rates and three-year terms, are now hitting maturity walls in a dramatically different economic environment.
Case Study: Norterra Canyon Apartments
A real-world example illustrates the pressures facing CRE CLO borrowers. The $58.6 million Norterra Canyon Apartments loan, backed by a 426-unit multifamily property in Las Vegas, highlights maturity-related challenges. The loan was added to the servicer’s watchlist in November 2024 due to pending loan maturity. Set to mature in May 2025, the loan transitioned to non-performing mature status in May 2025.
or more information, visit CRED iQ or reach out to our research team.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
A CRED iQ Preliminary Analysis
DATA HEREIN PROVIDED TO CRED IQ IS FROM A PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS AND MAY BE AMENDED OR SUPPLEMENTED PRIOR TO TIME OF SALE
Deal Overview
The BMO 2025-5C11 CMBS deal is a new issuance securitization for the CMBS market, with a total pooled balance of $698.1 million. The deal is jointly managed by prominent financial institutions including BMO, Starwood, Societe Generale, KeyBank, and Greystone. The deal is collateralized by 37 loans and secured by 63 properties across a variety of sectors, including multifamily, retail, and mixed use. The strategic geographic distribution of these properties ensures balanced exposure across major markets. The deal’s weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 61.7%, and the weighted average mortgage interest rate is 6.70%.
Key Metrics
The loan pool for BMO 2025-5C11 is structured to include a mix of amortizing and interest-only loans, with 1.9% of the mortgage pool having scheduled amortization. The remainder of the pool (98.1%) consists of interest-only payments throughout the loan term, offering investors a steady income stream. The pool boasts a weighted average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.43. The weighted average net operating income (NOI) debt yield is 10.1%.
Geography & Property Types
A key strength of the BMO 2025-5C11 CMBS deal is its diverse property type distribution, which enhances portfolio resilience. Multifamily properties constitute 47.3% of the total balance, while retail properties account for 20.8% of the balance. The geographic distribution of the properties across prime markets, including high-growth areas in New York City, Dallas, and Houston.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
CRED iQ analyzed underwriting metrics for the latest 10 transactions that have been packaged into CMBS securitizations. Our analysis examined cap rates, interest rates, and debt yields. We further broke down these statistics by property type and then compared our results to CRED iQ’s previous report issued in February.
Cap Rate Analysis
Office cap rates ranged from 4.31% to 10.63% with an average of 7.34%, down 10 BPS February print (7.44%). Multifamily cap rates ranged from 2.65% to 8.61% with an average of 5.70%, which is down from an average of 5.91% from February. Retail cap rates ranged from 5.13% to 9.19% with an average of 6.28%, down 41 BPS.
Cap Rates for industrial assets ranged from 3.67% to 7.50% with an average of 5.74%, which is down from 6.38% in the February print. Self storage cap rates ranged from 4.50% to 8.20% with an average of 5.81%, which is down 41 basis points from our previous February print. Hospitality cap rates ranged from 5.85% to 9.49% with an average of 7.95%, which is up from 7.31% in Q1. Hospitality was the only segment with a upward trajectory on average cap rates.
Interest Rate Analysis
Office interest rates ranged from 5.49% to 8.05 % with an average of 6.61%, which is down 5 BPS from 6.66% in Q3 2024. Interest rates for multifamily loans in CMBS deals ranged from 5.24% to 7.52% with an average of 6.50%, which is also down 8 basis points from 6.58%. Retail interest rates ranged from 5.23% to 7.60% with an average of 6.67%, which is up from an average of 6.51% in the February print.
Average interest rates for industrial assets ranged from 6.12% to 7.51% with an average of 6.81%, up from 6.38% in mid-Q1. Self storage interest rates ranged from 5.50% to 7.09% with an average of 6.47%, up 18 BPS. Hospitality rates ranged from 5.54% to 8.50% with an average of 7.30%, up from 6.89% in the February print.
Debt Yield Analysis
Debt yield trends for offices ranged from 10.2% to 36.2% with an average of 13.9%, which is up from 13.0% in February. Average debt yields for multifamily loans in CMBS deals ranged from 7.5% to 45.1% with an average of 12.9%, which is up 340 basis points from an average of 9.50% in the prior quarter. Retail debt yields ranged from 8.3% to 21.5% with an average of 12.0%, which is up from an average of 11.6% in mid-Q1.
Macro Takeaways
Comparing loan volumes to our February report, the office segment saw a 123% increase in properties –the highest of all property types. Multifamily came in second with a 71% increase. Meanwhile hospitality and industrial notched the greatest decrease in property/loan volumes at -78% and -76%, respectively. From a deal balance perspective, office saw the greatest increase since February (+92%), while industrial (-58%) logged the biggest decrease.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
THE DATA, INFORMATION AND/OR RELATED MATERAL (“DELIVERABLES”) IS BEING OFFERED AS-IS/WHERE-AS CONDITION. CRED-IQ MAKES NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY AS TO QUALITY OR ACCURACY OF SUCH DELIVERABLES BEING PURCHASED, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, EITHER IN FACT OR BY OPERATION OF LAW, STATUTE, OR OTHERWISE, AND CRED-IQ SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED OR STATUTORY WARRANTIES INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE, AND NON-INFRINGEMENT. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, YOU AS CUSTOMER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE NOT AND ARE NOT RELYING UPON ANY IMPLIED WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR OTHERWISE, OR UPON ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY WHATSOEVER AS TO THE DELIVERABLES IN ANY REGARDS WHATSOEVER, AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CRED-IQ MAKES NO, AND HEREBY DISCLAIMS ANY, REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR GUARANTEE THAT THE PURCHASE, USE OR COMMERCIALIZATION OF ANY DELIVERABLES WILL BE USEFUL TO YOU OR FREE FROM INTERFERENCE. BY ACCEPTANCE OF THE DELIVERABLES, YOU HEREBY RELEASE CRED-IQ AND ITS AFFILIATES AND AGENTS FROM ALL CLAIMS, DAMAGES AND LIABILITY ARISING HEREUNDER.
The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) distress rate increased from 10.3% in April to 11.0% in May, according to CRED iQ’s latest analysis. The latest print reverses a three-month trend of distress rate reductions.
The underlying metrics saw increases as well with the delinquency rate rising by 40 basis points to 8.4% and our special service rate notched a 30-basis point increase to 10.2%.
Below, we unpack the trends shaping the CMBS landscape and their implications for investors, lenders, and property owners.
Distress Rate Trends: A Reversal
CRED iQ’s distress rate, a composite metric capturing loans 30+ days delinquent (or worse) and those in special servicing, increased by 70 basis points to 11.0% in the latest reporting period. The trend reversal, which is further supported by increases in delinquencies and special servicing underscores the heightened volatility of CRE sector. These upticks highlight the need for vigilance as underlying pressures persist.
Payment Status Breakdown: Some Positive Signs
The CRED iQ research team analyzed the payment status of approximately $58 billion in distressed CMBS loans. The core objective of our research was to achieve a clear view of the current state of payment status reasons and associated near-term trending.
Our team then explored each payment status reason from a historical perspective. We wanted to understand the trending/evolution of each category dating back to February of 2024. Our team built a heat which reveals trends for each category, to potential argument current forecasting models.
Current Loans: Encouragingly, $10.4 billion (17.9%) are current, up from $8.3 billion (15.7%) in the prior month.
Delinquent Loans: $14.7 billion (25.3%) are delinquent, including those within grace periods, holding steady month-over-month –a 40 BPS decrease from a percentage basis
Matured Loans: $33 billion of CMBS loans have passed their maturity date. Of these, 18.1% are performing (up from 16.6%), while 38.6% are non-performing (down from 42%), indicating a notable swing toward non-performance.
Loan Highlight
The $39.9 million Encino Financial Center loan, backed by a 227,223 SF office property in the Los Angeles market highlights maturity-related challenges. Set to mature in May 2025, the loan defaulted to non-performing mature status and transferred to the special servicer. Year end 2024 financials reported a DSCR of 1.67 and 87% occupancy.
CRED iQ’s Methodology: A Comprehensive Approach
CRED iQ’s distress rate provides a holistic view of CMBS performance by combining delinquency (30+ days past due) and special servicing activity, including both performing and non-performing loans that fail to pay off at maturity. Our analysis focuses on conduit and single-borrower large loan structures, while separately tracking Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and CRE CLO metrics. This granular approach ensures CRE professionals have a clear, actionable understanding of market dynamics.
Stay Informed with CRED iQ
As the CRE sector continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, CRED iQ’s comprehensive analytics offer a critical resource for decision-makers. For a deeper dive into our data or to discuss how these trends impact your portfolio, contact our team today. Stay tuned for our next update, where we’ll continue to track the metrics driving the CMBS market.
For more information, visit CRED iQ or reach out to our research team.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
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