About 30 Questions with CRED

Introducing CRED iQ’s Fireside Chat & Q&A Blog Series, an engaging new platform designed to spark meaningful conversations and deliver actionable insights for commercial real estate professionals. Please enjoy this fireside Q&A with Jordan Cailliarec.

Quick Background on Jordan:

Meet Jordan Cailliarec, a seasoned principal at Pantigo Advisors, where he’s been driving opportunistic real estate investments since 2009. With over 15 years in thematic real estate finance, Jordan specializes in debt asset management and credit risk mitigation, transforming high-risk loan portfolios into high-performing assets for maximum returns. 

His hands-on approach has made him a go-to expert for CRE investors navigating Northeast submarkets, from spotting undervalued opportunities to executing sharp repositioning strategies. Currently, Jordan serves as Portfolio Manager at Habitat Portfolio Management, overseeing diverse real estate debt and equity plays since 2021.  He previously managed assets for a confidential private fund, honing his skills in risk assessment and value enhancement. 

At Pantigo Advisors—a firm he helped shape since its founding—Jordan leverages deep local expertise to build lasting relationships and mitigate market volatilities, focusing on inventive, pragmatic investments that deliver for stakeholders. Whether discussing distressed debt workouts or emerging CRE trends on podcasts, Jordan’s insights blend street-smart tactics with strategic foresight, making him an invaluable voice for investors eyeing resilient portfolios in today’s dynamic market. Connect with him to unlock your next big opportunity.

Also, here was one of Jordan’s guest blogs from May 2024 about CRE CLOs: Structural Considerations When Analyzing Distress & Searching for Opportunity Using CRED iQ Analytics

1. What do you think of the trends in office properties?

I think there are still many further opportunities for valuations to step down meaningfully. Recently we have the Worldwide Plaza sasb deal in the news for all the wrong reasons, but there have been several situations in the last 18-24 months where opportunistic purchasers of previously distressed office properties in NY metro are now in distress themselves. We had looked at a NPL in Q1 with a judgment pending for a midtown east loft style office just outside of the MSMX zone, $6.8m UPB against a claimed $7.5m appraised value, and when it came up on the auction block several months later the upset was approximately $5.5m which was 10% or so lower than the loan sale whisper. So obviously some eleventh hour second guessing by the lender in that specific scenario to avoid OREO, but I think there are a lot of losses yet to be fully realized.

Despite positive recent leasing activity data for core midtown, I’m also extremely wary of the notion that demand will necessarily spill over to adjacent submarkets.

2. Has the current market caused you to think differently about any property types?

NYC rent stabilized MF, but that’s for a whole host of reasons beyond just the current market.

3. The CRE CLO ecosystem has shown some impressive growth with the demand of shorter-term loans being in heavy demand. How do you think about the CMBS market outlook over the next 12-24 months?

Doom and gloom makes for good headlines, but I’m most interested in monitoring that subset of cmbs that is both in the money to refinance and has remaining extension options; how cmbs borrowers in that scenario choose to behave will prove to be a bit of a representative tell I think.

4. What is keeping you up at night?

I tend to be a bit sanguine about these sorts of concerns; we can only react to that which is out of our control and there is a healthy middle ground between apocalyptic doom and naivete in the face of objective concerns. So, nothing specific keeping me up and night but I do believe there are sufficient issues to give rise to opportunities for those with the gumption in the next 18-24 months.

5. Any thoughts with respect to how AI will impact CRE and CRE Finance?

I think it will be helpful in simplifying certain processes at this point; screening, data scraping, things of that nature just from an efficiency standpoint. I’m sure its role in real estate and real estate finance will continue to evolve and use cases will expand. For me, it seems to be a promising yet incomplete tool at this juncture.

6. Where do you think interest rates will be at year-end.

Bit of a fools errand to try to predict with specificity, but incrementally lower, which after the last 24 months very well may have more of an outsize effect on transaction activity than otherwise warranted.

7. How do we solve the housing crisis? Does the federal government need to play a key role?

I’m going to offer a bit of a fatalistic take on this one; from a policy standpoint, all just window dressing. Housing is going to be an ongoing pain point for the country for the foreseeable future, and there are realistically few solutions. Banging on about specific actions that in a vacuum won’t effectuate a material change doesn’t seem productive.

8. What is your outlook on traditional malls as a potential investment?

As far as the stereotypical suburban mall replete with an Auntie Anne’s and Hot Topic, I think for the most part there isn’t much left to suck out of what remains on a national level.  A handful of groups specialized in wringing out the last bits of value from the dying suburban mall; acquisition velocity by those groups has slowed in the last couple years and they have started moving onto other asset classes, which I take as an indication there isn’t much juice left to squeeze.

9. What is your 12 month outlook on deal volumes?

Obviously I assume they’re going to be elevated from todays levels. At this point I believe the impact of just a nominal rate cut in terms of market stimulation will be relatively meaningful.

10. With Apartment construction at a decade low, how do you feel about multifamily unit pricing trends over the coming 18 months?

Positive. But I’ve always been more positive about this question than what seems to be the prevailing industry sentiment.  People seemed so drawn to the ridiculous syndications of several years ago and seemed so emotionally committed to the schadenfreude of seeing the syndicators go down in flames that their analysis often missed the forest through the trees. I chuckled to myself while reading a lot of the commentary as absorption remained strong.

Fun Facts About Jordan Cailliarec

1. Favorite food? I’m a steak guy. NY Strip, rare
2. Best Sports movie of all time? Moneyball
3. What’s your favorite band? Blink 182
4. What is your favorite quote from the movie Airplane? “Flying a plane is no different than riding a bicycle, just a lot harder to put baseball cards in the spokes”
5. What should be a new Olympic Sport? Dodgeball. Such a beautifully simple and adversarial concept that’s bigger than any one nation or culture; you throw the ball, you try and hit somebody with the ball. You hit them, you’re out, they catch it, you’re out.
6. What was your first aol screen name or email? jordyc13. I guess some other people are using that handle nowadays elsewhere, but I was the first.
7. Who’s the best person to follow on Twitter / X? @CECL_Allowance and @iBladesi for niche credit commentary
8. Top Golf Course ever played? Maidstone. Definitely not the best course I’ve played or even close, and frankly an objectively unremarkable course, but what is special about it can’t be measured.
9. Costar or CRED iQ? CredIQ, obviously
10. Name the person (present, historical or even fiction) you’d love to have dinner with? Henry Kissinger.  Just an incredible breath of geopolitical knowledge from a time of massive world upheaval and was respected by leaders of all political inclinations alike.
11. What’s your go-to Karaoke song? Mr. Brightside
12. What’s the best city in the USA? New York, only right answer
13. What’s the best trip you’ve been on? I wouldn’t necessarily say there is any specific “best”, but I’ve gotten the most satisfaction over the last several out of last minute trips to northern Vermont to chase snow with my girlfriend.
14. What is a really solid life lesson that you’d teach others? “Yesterday you were clever so you wanted to change the world. Today you are wise so you’re changing yourself” -Rumi
15. Insta, LinkedIn, twitter, facebook or old school texts or phone calls? Phone calls first. Texts are old school now I guess, those are second preference.
16. What’s the best meal you can cook? I make a mean porcini risotto
17. What’s your favorite professional sports team? Second favorite? Yankees then Rangers
18. Did you get a higher verbal or math score on your SAT and why? Verbal, 20 point delta as I recall. Why? No idea. I was always a decent test taker and didn’t prep much.
19. What’s your favorite fast food restaurant? I love fast food, McDonalds and Wendys specifically. Big Mac and Chili are my go-tos
20. Favorite quote from Happy Gilmore, Billy Madison or Zoolander? You pay the quarter, you get on the horse, it goes up and down, and around. It’s circular. Circle, with the music, the flow. All good things.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.

With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.