The CRED iQ research team analyzed the payment status of approximately $61.1 billion in CMBS loans as part of our monthly distress reporting. Our latest print saw the CRED iQ distress rate climb by 70 basis points to 11.78%, the second consecutive increase. CMBS distress rates exceed the previous record high of 11.5%, set in January, establishing a new historic high in August.
With these new record highs following increases during 3 of the 4 last months, we wanted to understand if this foretells an upward trajectory as we move into the fall months. Let’s dive in and see what the data tells us.
Distress Rate Trends
The commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”) distress rate added 70 basis points reaching a new record high of 11.8% in August according to CRED iQ’s latest analysis.
This second consecutive increase was matched by increases across the underlying metrics for the second month in a row. The delinquency rate saw a 78 BPS increase to reach 9.44%, while the special servicing rate increased from 10.33% to 10.95%.
Payment Terms
Our team explored each payment status reason from a historical perspective.
We wanted to understand the trending/evolution of each category dating back to March of 2024. Our team built a heat map which reveals trends for each category, to potential argument current forecasting models.
Current Loans: $8.4 billion (13.7%) of CMBS loans were current in August, down $721 million from the July print of $9.1 billion (15.5%), notching the third consecutive decrease in this fundamental metric
Late Loans: $3.8 billion (6.2%) of loans are late but not yet delinquent, down slightly from 6.4% last month
Delinquent Loans: $10.2 billion (16.6%) of CMBS loans are 30+ days delinquent, down from $10.3 billion (17.5%) in July
Matured Loans: $38.8 billion (63.5%) in CMBS loans have passed their maturity date (up from $35.8 billion last month). Of these, 22.8% are performing (up from 21.7%), while 40.7% are non-performing (up from 38.9%)
Loan Highlight
Estates at Palm Bay is a 300-unit multifamily property in Fort Walton Beach, part of the Florida panhandle. The garden style property is backed by a $61 million loan that fell 30 days delinquent in August 2025. The interest only loan is scheduled to mature in September 2029. The asset was most recently performed with a DSCR of 1.43 and 88% occupancy.
CRED iQ’s Methodology: A Comprehensive Approach
CRED iQ’s distress rate provides a holistic view of CMBS performance by combining delinquency (30+ days past due) and special servicing activity, including both performing and non-performing loans that fail to pay off at maturity. Our analysis focuses on conduit and single-borrower large loan structures, while separately tracking Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and CRE CLO metrics. This granular approach ensures CRE professionals have a clear, actionable understanding of market dynamics.
Informed with CRED iQ
As the CRE sector continues to adapt to macroeconomic shifts, CRED iQ’s comprehensive analytics offer a critical resource for decision-makers. For a deeper dive into our data or to discuss how these trends impact your portfolio, contact our team today. Stay tuned for our next update, where we’ll continue to track the metrics driving the CMBS market.
For more information, visit CRED-iQ.com or reach out to our research team at Team@CRED-iQ.com.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a market data provider that offers a robust suite of data and software solutions tailored for commercial real estate and finance professionals.
With over $2.3 trillion of CRE loans, CRED iQ delivers instant access to a comprehensive range of financial data and analytics for millions of properties in every market. CRED iQ’s data and analytical capabilities are instrumental in helping investors, lenders and brokers make informed and strategic decisions critical to their business.
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