CRED iQ prepared for the year ahead in commercial real estate by analyzing securitized commercial mortgages with maturity dates scheduled in 2024 and 2025. CRED iQ’s database has approximately $210 billion in commercial mortgages that are scheduled to mature in 2024, with an additional $111 billion of CRE debt maturing in 2025. In total, CRED iQ has aggregated and organized a total of $320 billion of commercial mortgages slated to mature within the next 24 months.
The dataset included is comprised of loans securitized in CMBS conduit trusts, single-borrower large-loan securitizations (SBLL) and CRE CLOs, as well as multifamily mortgages securitized through government-sponsored entities.
The next 12 months have the highest volume of scheduled maturities for securitized CRE loans over a period of 10 years ending 2033. Let’s dive into the details.
Commercial Mortgages Maturing
- Includes CMBS, Insurance, Bank/Balance Sheet, Agency, and Debt Funds
- In 2024, $659 billion in commercial loans are slated to mature
- In 2025, $539 billion in commercial loans are slated to mature
- In total, $1.2 Trillion will mature in the next 24 months
Maturity by Year: Active Loan Balances of Securitized Universe
- CRED iQ’s securitized universe includes CMBS, SBLL, CRE CLO, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Ginnie Mae
- 2024 and 2025 have the largest aggregate balances of maturing loans
- In 2024, $210 billion of CRE debt will mature.
- In 2025, $111 billion of CRE debt will mature.
CMBS Issuance Trends
- Since 2012, CMBS issuance has averaged $76 billion per year
- The market significantly slowed down in 2008-2010 due to the Great Financial Crisis
- In 2021, CMBS issuance totaled $111 billion as the market rebounded after the Covid shutdown.
Property Type Analysis
- Multifamily represents the largest asset class of maturing loans. $113 billion (35%) of multifamily will mature these next 24 months.
- The second-largest sector is office ($46.6 billion) then hotel with $42.3 billion.
- Retail loans coming due over the next 24 months total $31 billion.
- Industrial loans totaling $30 billion are slated to mature in 2024 or 2025.
- Self-storage loans have approximately $5.3 billion coming due over the next two years.
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Origination Dates
- Approximately $100 billion of upcoming maturing loans were originated in 2014 or 2015 as 10-year loans.
- Over $80 billion of 2021 originated loans are set to expire in the next 24 months.
Market Analysis – Top 25 MSAs
Second-Tier Market Analysis (Top 26 to 50)
- The New York MSA has the largest amount of maturing loans in the next 24 months.
- LA, Dallas, San Francisco and Atlanta are in the Top 5 markets with the highest totals of CRE debt coming due.
- Charlotte, NC ranks in the top of the second tier of markets with $1.8 billion of CRE debt maturing by 2025.
- Nashville, Detroit, Raleigh, and Allentown round out the Top 5 largest markets with maturing loans within the second tier.
Current Interest Rates
- Of the $320 billion set to mature in 2024 or 2025, 43% have current interest rates below 5.00%.
- 14.7% of maturing loans in the next two years have an existing interest rate under 4.00%.
Original Cap Rates
- 35% of the maturing loans had an original cap rate of less than 4.0% at the time of loan origination.
- 18% of the maturing loans in the next two years had a cap rate between 4.0% and 5.0%.
- Most of the maturing loans were originated in 2014 and 2015, during a period of lower cap rates.
- Multifamily had the lowest average cap rate with 5.48%.
- The second-lowest average cap rate was 5.81% for the self storage sector.
- Average office cap rates at the time of loan origination was 6.84% for the loans that are coming due in the next 24 months.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a data & analytics platform used by commercial real estate brokers, lenders, investors, and appraisers. It provides an easy-to-use interface, comprehensive and official loan data, true borrower and owner contact information, and a built-in valuation tool. As an official data provider, CRED iQ’s precise and audited data includes across all property types and geographies, all of which help CRE professionals leverage CRED iQ for a wide spectrum of use cases such as uncovering acquisition and lending opportunities, market analysis, underwriting, & risk management.
