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2023 Multifamily Maturities by Market

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CRED iQ
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CRED iQ is tracking approximately $25 billion of securitized debt secured by multifamily properties that is scheduled to mature in 2023. Exploring upcoming CRE loan maturities can be beneficial for constituents in the commercial real estate industry looking to make more informed decisions to identify potential opportunities for growth. Lenders and mortgage originators can develop a better understanding of market positions while capital providers and distressed investors can dial in on targeted deployments.

Serving as a more extensive analysis and supplement to CRED iQ’s year-end 2023 CRE Maturity Outlook report, we took the opportunity to focus on near-term maturing loans with multifamily collateral. Although some multifamily metrics, such as rent growth, have been softening, multifamily still remains among the top-performing CRE property types in 2023. CRED iQ’s distressed rate for multifamily CMBS, which includes both delinquent and special serviced loans, was 2.72%, which was lower than retail, lodging, and office.

Altogether, CRED iQ identified more than 2,300 multifamily loans with a 2023 maturity date, totaling approximately $25 billion by aggregate balance. Outstanding debt figures comprise all securitized mortgages in CRED iQ’s $2 trillion commercial real estate database, including CMBS, Freddie Mac, Fannie, Mae, and Ginnie Mae loans. Looking ahead, the multifamily maturity wave picks up in 2024 with $49 billion in scheduled maturities. Aggregate scheduled multifamily maturities remain relatively flat between $30 and $40 billion from 2025 through 2027 and then surge to north of $80 billion in 2028, towards $100 billion a year by 2029.

Stratifying 2023 multifamily loans by the underlying properties’ geographical area gives a sense of which markets have elevated opportunity for refinancing activity. Examining the Top 20 markets with the highest amount of multifamily debt coming due in 2023, we observed that New York City leads all Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with $2.3 billion. The NYC MSA accounts for 9% of 2023 multifamily maturities. The Dallas-Fort Worth MSA comes in a close second-place with $1.9 billion of multifamily mortgage debt that is scheduled to mature in 2023. Other MSAs with more than $1 billion of multifamily loans due to mature in 2023 include Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Austin.

Overlaying distressed rates for each market, we find that 12 of the Top 20 markets with 2023 multifamily maturities, or 60% in total, have nominal levels of distress. Only two of these markets – Washington, DC and San Francisco – have distressed rates greater than 1%

Finally, we also cross-paneled 2023 multifamily loan maturities by securitization type and total maturing debt by market. This table gives a view of which markets have the highest outstanding maturing balances in 2023 by securitization vehicle. For example, the majority of 2023 multifamily loan maturities are securitized in CRE CLOs and Single-Borrower Large-Loan transactions. NYC is the market with the highest amount of maturing debt among CRE CLOs, but the Atlanta MSA has the highest multifamily maturing debt amount for Single-Borrower Large-Loan securitizations. It is also worth noting that most loans in the CRE CLO and Single-Borrower subsets have embedded maturity extension options that can push refinancing beyond 2023. Los Angeles claims the highest ranking for 2023 multifamily loan maturities for Fannie Mae securitizations and Dallas-Fort Worth has the highest rank for Freddie Mac securitizations.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

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CMBS – December 2022 Distressed Workouts and Payoffs

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CRED iQ
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CMBS conduit transactions incurred approximately $130 million in realized losses during December 2022 via the workout of distressed assets. CRED iQ identified nine workouts classified as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs in December 2022. All nine workouts were resolved with losses to respective CMBS trusts, which contrasted with prior months when at least some workouts were able to be resolved without losses. Loss severities for the month of December ranged from 7% to 100%, based on outstanding balances at disposition. Aggregate realized losses in December 2022 were approximately 12% higher than November despite fewer workouts. On a monthly basis, realized losses for CMBS transactions averaged approximately $135.9 million during 2022.

By property type, workouts were concentrated in retail, accounting for five of the nine distressed resolutions. Distressed workouts for retail properties had the highest total of aggregate realized losses ($104 million), which accounted for 74% of total losses for the month. The largest individual realized loss from CRED iQ’s observations was from a note sale of an $84.7 million mortgage secured by Blackpoint Puerto Rico Portfolio, a six-property portfolio of retail properties located in Puerto Rico. Prior to its distressed workout, the properties had been in special servicing for 11 years. The loan’s resolution resulted in a loss severity of 100% based on outstanding balance at disposition. The workout also represented the largest individual loss severity and largest individual workout by outstanding debt amount in December 2022.

The second- and third-highest individual loss amounts for CMBS workouts this month were associated with lodging properties. Lodging was the only other property type besides retail with multiple distressed workouts in December. An REO 303-key hotel, Hilton College Station, with $30.6 million in outstanding debt was liquidated in late-November 2022. The property transferred to special servicing in August 2019, became REO in June 2020, and was ultimately auctioned for sale in September 2022 for a price slightly higher than the asset’s December 2021 appraisal value of $20.7 million ($68,317 per key). The liquidation resulted in $14.9 million in principal losses, equal to a 49% loss severity. The second lodging distressed workout was also a liquidation of an REO hotel — Hampton Inn Suites – Yonkers. The property had outstanding debt of $22.1 million and was liquidated with a 38% loss severity after more than five years in special servicing.

Excluding defeased loans, there was approximately $7 billion in securitized debt among CMBS conduit, Single-Borrower Large-Loan, and Freddie Mac securitizations that was paid off or liquidated in December 2022, which was approximately a 4% decrease compared to $8.2 billion in November 2022. In December, 2% of the loan resolutions were categorized as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs. The percentage of distressed workouts was 6% in the prior month. Approximately 36% of the loans were paid off with prepayment penalties, which was in line with the prior month.

Excluding Freddie Mac securitizations, multifamily had the highest total of outstanding debt payoff in December with approximately 37% of the total by balance. Retail and office were the next property types with the highest outstanding debt payoff with 20% and 18% of the total, respectively. Among the largest individual payoffs was a $481 million mortgage secured by a 43-property portfolio located across 10 states and owned by the Chetrit Group.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

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Market Delinquency Tracker – December 2022

By
CRED iQ
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CRED iQ monitors distressed rates and market performance for nearly 400 MSAs across the United States, covering over $900 billion in outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt. Distressed rates (DQ + SS%) include loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. Distressed rates and month-over-month changes for data reported as of December 2022 are presented below for the 50 largest MSAs, broken out by property type for a granular view of distress by market-sector.

Of the 50 largest MSAs tracked by CRED iQ, half exhibited month-over-month increases in the percentage of distressed CRE loans with an average monthly increase of 0.7%. The other half of the 50 largest MSAs had an average improvement in distress of 0.2%. Notable markets with increased levels of distress this month included Pittsburgh (+4.0%), Birmingham, AL (+2.4%), and Cleveland (+1.9%). The Memphis, TN market (-0.5%) exhibited the sharpest percentage decline in distressed commercial real estate loans during December 2022.

For a more granular analysis of the Top 50 markets, CRED iQ further delineated individual market distressed rates by property type for a comprehensive view by market-sector. The office sector accounted for three of the five-largest month-over-month increases in distress by market-sector. Multiple large-balance office loans transferred to special servicing in December 2022, including a $243.6 million mortgage secured by Republic Plaza in Denver, CO, a $53.9 million mortgage secured by Belk Headquarters in Charlotte, NC, and a $41.7 million mortgage secured by Parkway Center in Pittsburgh, PA. As noted, the Pittsburgh MSA exhibited the highest increase in distress this month among primary markets. Much of the increase in distress can be attributed to a $98.2 million loan secured by a 1.5 million-sf mixed-use (office and retail) building located at 3 Gateway Center. The loan transferred to special servicing in late-November 2022 ahead of its January 2023 maturity date. Imminent maturity default was cited as the reason for distress. The office tower, which has a retail component, has had issues attaining occupancy levels above 80% for several years.

The lodging sector was associated with five of the 10 largest percentage declines in distressed rates across market-sectors during December 2022, including the Chicago hotel market-sector (-1.7%). A $20.7 million loan secured by the IHG-flagged EVEN Hotel Chicago – Tinley Park returned to the master servicer this month after initially transferring to special servicing in October 2021.

The Minneapolis MSA has the highest overall distressed rate at 20.3%, which was in line with previous months. Birmingham (11.0%), Cleveland (10.3%), Hartford (9.0%), and Milwaukee (8.6%) comprise the remaining markets with the highest rates of distress. The Sacramento MSA (0.1%) displaced Jacksonville this month as the market with the lowest percentage of distress among the Top 50 MSAs after favorable workouts in the retail and lodging sectors.

For the full Market DelinQuency Tracker Report, download here:

The-CRED-DQ-Market-Delinquency-Tracker-December-2022Download
MSA – Property Type  DQ/SS
(millions) 		DS/SS
(%)		Monthly
Change
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ MSA$78.02.5%-0.1%
Allentown – Hotel$0.71.9%-0.2%
Allentown – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Allentown – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Allentown – Office$58.317.9%-1.2%
Allentown – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Allentown – Retail$19.05.1%0.0%
Allentown – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Atlanta – Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA$519.51.9%0.2%
Atlanta – Hotel$82.23.4%-0.4%
Atlanta – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Atlanta – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.1%
Atlanta – Office$56.32.6%-0.7%
Atlanta – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Atlanta – Retail$381.118.8%2.7%
Atlanta – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Austin – Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA$111.51.2%-0.4%
Austin – Hotel$58.26.6%0.8%
Austin – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Austin – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.6%
Austin – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Austin – Other$4.21.2%-1.4%
Austin – Retail$49.16.5%-0.4%
Austin – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Baltimore – Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA$356.43.9%0.1%
Baltimore – Hotel$43.99.4%-0.5%
Baltimore – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Baltimore – Multifamily$3.80.1%0.0%
Baltimore – Office$46.75.2%0.4%
Baltimore – Other$11.64.9%-4.4%
Baltimore – Retail$250.522.6%0.0%
Baltimore – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Birmingham – Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA$342.211.0%2.4%
Birmingham – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Birmingham – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Birmingham – Multifamily$63.24.5%4.4%
Birmingham – Office$94.718.3%-0.7%
Birmingham – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Birmingham – Retail$184.425.7%-0.2%
Birmingham – Self Storage$0.00.0%-2.6%
Boston – Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA$123.30.6%-0.1%
Boston – Hotel$19.31.2%-0.5%
Boston – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Boston – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Boston – Office$14.50.2%0.0%
Boston – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Boston – Retail$89.55.5%-0.2%
Boston – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Bridgeport – Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT MSA$198.95.0%0.4%
Bridgeport – Hotel$38.629.9%-1.1%
Bridgeport – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Bridgeport – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Bridgeport – Office$150.514.0%1.1%
Bridgeport – Other$9.82.5%-0.1%
Bridgeport – Retail$0.00.0%0.0%
Bridgeport – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Charlotte – Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC MSA$279.13.7%0.7%
Charlotte – Hotel$35.44.3%-1.2%
Charlotte – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Charlotte – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Charlotte – Office$75.38.1%8.1%
Charlotte – Other$85.031.4%-5.7%
Charlotte – Retail$83.510.2%0.8%
Charlotte – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Chicago – Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA$2,187.67.3%-0.2%
Chicago – Hotel$748.430.8%-1.7%
Chicago – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Chicago – Multifamily$52.90.5%0.0%
Chicago – Office$962.111.4%0.4%
Chicago – Other$208.68.2%0.0%
Chicago – Retail$215.77.0%-2.1%
Chicago – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Cincinnati – Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA$137.63.6%0.7%
Cincinnati – Hotel$87.130.0%0.5%
Cincinnati – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Cincinnati – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.1%
Cincinnati – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Cincinnati – Other$6.82.6%0.0%
Cincinnati – Retail$43.67.9%5.6%
Cincinnati – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Cleveland – Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA$442.510.3%1.9%
Cleveland – Hotel$84.946.4%-1.1%
Cleveland – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Cleveland – Multifamily$1.10.1%-0.2%
Cleveland – Office$175.918.8%8.9%
Cleveland – Other$172.842.9%0.2%
Cleveland – Retail$7.71.1%-0.1%
Cleveland – Self Storage$0.00.0%-1.7%
Columbus, OH – Columbus, OH MSA$159.02.3%-0.2%
Columbus, OH – Hotel$19.77.0%-2.7%
Columbus, OH – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Columbus, OH – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.2%
Columbus, OH – Office$31.14.9%0.8%
Columbus, OH – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Columbus, OH – Retail$108.214.4%-0.6%
Columbus, OH – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Dallas – Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA$258.30.8%0.0%
Dallas – Hotel$77.52.2%-0.3%
Dallas – Industrial$1.70.1%0.0%
Dallas – Multifamily$7.10.0%0.0%
Dallas – Office$101.13.4%0.0%
Dallas – Other$4.90.2%0.0%
Dallas – Retail$65.93.3%-0.2%
Dallas – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Denver – Denver-Aurora, CO MSA$508.93.2%1.5%
Denver – Hotel$18.32.6%-0.6%
Denver – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Denver – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Denver – Office$377.918.1%11.0%
Denver – Other$66.46.9%-3.1%
Denver – Retail$46.23.5%2.5%
Denver – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Detroit – Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA$231.82.2%-0.3%
Detroit – Hotel$84.111.8%-0.1%
Detroit – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Detroit – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Detroit – Office$3.70.2%-0.6%
Detroit – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Detroit – Retail$143.910.1%-0.9%
Detroit – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Hartford – Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA$239.59.0%1.1%
Hartford – Hotel$58.243.4%20.0%
Hartford – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Hartford – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Hartford – Office$25.19.2%-1.0%
Hartford – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Hartford – Retail$156.246.7%-0.1%
Hartford – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Houston – Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA$1,081.14.5%0.2%
Houston – Hotel$512.347.8%5.7%
Houston – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Houston – Multifamily$22.30.1%0.0%
Houston – Office$441.213.0%-0.7%
Houston – Other$0.00.0%-6.6%
Houston – Retail$105.23.6%0.9%
Houston – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Indianapolis – Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA$176.12.7%-0.5%
Indianapolis – Hotel$110.417.2%2.0%
Indianapolis – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Indianapolis – Multifamily$0.00.0%-1.2%
Indianapolis – Office$60.210.2%-0.2%
Indianapolis – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Indianapolis – Retail$5.61.7%-0.1%
Indianapolis – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Jacksonville – Jacksonville, FL MSA$111.92.1%0.0%
Jacksonville – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Jacksonville – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Jacksonville – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.1%
Jacksonville – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Jacksonville – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Jacksonville – Retail$111.928.6%-0.5%
Jacksonville – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Kansas City – Kansas City, MO-KS MSA$77.91.3%-0.2%
Kansas City – Hotel$29.512.5%-0.5%
Kansas City – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Kansas City – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Kansas City – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Kansas City – Other$0.00.0%-10.3%
Kansas City – Retail$48.58.0%2.0%
Kansas City – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Las Vegas – Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA$250.91.2%0.2%
Las Vegas – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Las Vegas – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Las Vegas – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Las Vegas – Office$4.10.5%0.5%
Las Vegas – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Las Vegas – Retail$246.86.4%0.8%
Las Vegas – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Los Angeles – Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA$849.81.6%-0.4%
Los Angeles – Hotel$156.12.7%-1.1%
Los Angeles – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Los Angeles – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.1%
Los Angeles – Office$72.90.6%-0.6%
Los Angeles – Other$56.51.6%-1.3%
Los Angeles – Retail$564.39.1%-0.4%
Los Angeles – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Louisville – Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA$71.12.3%-0.3%
Louisville – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Louisville – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Louisville – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Louisville – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Louisville – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Louisville – Retail$71.114.8%0.1%
Louisville – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Memphis – Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA$73.53.0%-0.5%
Memphis – Hotel$12.86.0%-0.1%
Memphis – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Memphis – Multifamily$0.00.0%-0.5%
Memphis – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Memphis – Other$0.00.0%-15.9%
Memphis – Retail$60.716.6%-0.2%
Memphis – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Miami – Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA$262.81.0%0.0%
Miami – Hotel$40.60.8%0.6%
Miami – Industrial$1.90.4%0.4%
Miami – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Miami – Office$4.00.2%0.0%
Miami – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Miami – Retail$216.33.9%-0.7%
Miami – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Milwaukee – Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA$216.68.6%-0.4%
Milwaukee – Hotel$16.710.4%0.0%
Milwaukee – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Milwaukee – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Milwaukee – Office$93.416.9%-1.2%
Milwaukee – Other$0.20.2%-0.4%
Milwaukee – Retail$106.323.6%-1.3%
Milwaukee – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Minneapolis – Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA$1,717.320.3%0.1%
Minneapolis – Hotel$242.338.8%-5.0%
Minneapolis – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Minneapolis – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Minneapolis – Office$70.93.4%1.3%
Minneapolis – Other$4.11.0%-0.1%
Minneapolis – Retail$1,400.077.1%-0.3%
Minneapolis – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Nashville – Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA$61.31.0%0.1%
Nashville – Hotel$52.03.6%0.5%
Nashville – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Nashville – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Nashville – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Nashville – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Nashville – Retail$9.41.3%0.0%
Nashville – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
New Orleans – New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA MSA$132.23.6%0.1%
New Orleans – Hotel$60.05.2%0.1%
New Orleans – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
New Orleans – Multifamily$8.30.9%0.9%
New Orleans – Office$27.15.0%0.0%
New Orleans – Other$14.79.5%0.0%
New Orleans – Retail$22.03.1%-0.3%
New Orleans – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
New York City – New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA$6,421.45.0%0.1%
New York City – Hotel$941.424.6%-1.3%
New York City – Industrial$98.82.4%0.8%
New York City – Multifamily$208.80.6%-0.6%
New York City – Office$1,418.53.1%0.1%
New York City – Other$1,675.27.6%-0.3%
New York City – Retail$2,078.716.0%2.6%
New York City – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Orlando – Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA$138.51.3%0.0%
Orlando – Hotel$52.21.9%0.0%
Orlando – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Orlando – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Orlando – Office$57.713.0%0.1%
Orlando – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Orlando – Retail$28.53.2%0.1%
Orlando – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Philadelphia – Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA$780.93.7%-0.2%
Philadelphia – Hotel$69.47.7%-3.8%
Philadelphia – Industrial$10.40.3%0.3%
Philadelphia – Multifamily$75.20.8%-0.8%
Philadelphia – Office$221.65.4%1.3%
Philadelphia – Other$385.130.1%0.5%
Philadelphia – Retail$19.20.9%0.0%
Philadelphia – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Phoenix – Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA$234.21.2%0.2%
Phoenix – Hotel$32.52.0%-0.1%
Phoenix – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Phoenix – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Phoenix – Office$55.92.6%0.7%
Phoenix – Other$0.00.0%-1.0%
Phoenix – Retail$145.88.4%1.2%
Phoenix – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh, PA MSA$245.65.2%4.0%
Pittsburgh – Hotel$15.88.7%0.0%
Pittsburgh – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Pittsburgh – Multifamily$0.10.0%0.0%
Pittsburgh – Office$104.69.6%6.7%
Pittsburgh – Other$117.333.1%30.5%
Pittsburgh – Retail$7.81.3%1.3%
Pittsburgh – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Portland – Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA$583.38.2%1.6%
Portland – Hotel$348.438.3%7.2%
Portland – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Portland – Multifamily$11.00.2%0.3%
Portland – Office$12.93.1%0.0%
Portland – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Portland – Retail$211.042.7%0.5%
Portland – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Raleigh – Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA$25.90.7%0.1%
Raleigh – Hotel$15.37.2%-0.2%
Raleigh – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Raleigh – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Raleigh – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Raleigh – Other$0.00.0%-4.4%
Raleigh – Retail$10.74.1%4.1%
Raleigh – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Richmond – Richmond, VA MSA$175.05.2%0.4%
Richmond – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Richmond – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Richmond – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Richmond – Office$16.32.6%2.6%
Richmond – Other$12.98.9%0.0%
Richmond – Retail$145.832.2%-5.9%
Richmond – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Riverside – Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA$289.92.8%0.0%
Riverside – Hotel$51.911.5%-0.2%
Riverside – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Riverside – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Riverside – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Riverside – Other$9.72.5%0.0%
Riverside – Retail$228.411.4%-0.1%
Riverside – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Sacramento – Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA MSA$6.10.1%-0.4%
Sacramento – Hotel$0.00.0%-2.4%
Sacramento – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Sacramento – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Sacramento – Office$6.10.8%0.8%
Sacramento – Other$0.00.0%-2.9%
Sacramento – Retail$0.00.0%-1.6%
Sacramento – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Salt Lake City, UT MSA$6.10.1%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Hotel$6.12.1%-0.1%
Salt Lake City – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Retail$0.00.0%0.0%
Salt Lake City – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
San Antonio – San Antonio, TX MSA$140.72.2%0.2%
San Antonio – Hotel$17.16.3%3.1%
San Antonio – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
San Antonio – Multifamily$7.90.2%0.2%
San Antonio – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
San Antonio – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
San Antonio – Retail$115.814.2%0.0%
San Antonio – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
San Diego – San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA$55.60.5%-0.1%
San Diego – Hotel$39.43.4%1.5%
San Diego – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
San Diego – Multifamily$4.20.1%0.0%
San Diego – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
San Diego – Other$9.21.3%-1.6%
San Diego – Retail$2.90.2%0.0%
San Diego – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
San Francisco – San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA$694.92.7%-0.2%
San Francisco – Hotel$100.73.4%-0.7%
San Francisco – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
San Francisco – Multifamily$460.95.8%-0.3%
San Francisco – Office$32.10.3%0.0%
San Francisco – Other$53.72.0%0.0%
San Francisco – Retail$47.44.0%-0.8%
San Francisco – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
San Jose – San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA$55.60.3%0.0%
San Jose – Hotel$32.00.5%0.0%
San Jose – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
San Jose – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
San Jose – Office$23.60.3%0.0%
San Jose – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
San Jose – Retail$0.00.0%0.0%
San Jose – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Seattle – Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA$36.10.2%-0.2%
Seattle – Hotel$36.12.6%-2.6%
Seattle – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Seattle – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Seattle – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Seattle – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Seattle – Retail$0.00.0%0.0%
Seattle – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
St. Louis – St. Louis, MO-IL MSA$215.65.1%-0.2%
St. Louis – Hotel$1.70.5%-0.1%
St. Louis – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
St. Louis – Multifamily$3.20.2%0.0%
St. Louis – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
St. Louis – Other$19.53.9%0.0%
St. Louis – Retail$191.220.6%-0.9%
St. Louis – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Tampa – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL$120.21.2%0.0%
Tampa – Hotel$59.08.5%0.1%
Tampa – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Tampa – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Tampa – Office$23.43.4%-0.3%
Tampa – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Tampa – Retail$37.95.1%-0.1%
Tampa – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Tucson – Tucson, AZ MSA$158.94.7%-0.2%
Tucson – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Tucson – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Tucson – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Tucson – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Tucson – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Tucson – Retail$158.919.4%-3.6%
Tucson – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Virginia Beach – Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA$163.73.4%0.2%
Virginia Beach – Hotel$0.00.0%0.0%
Virginia Beach – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Virginia Beach – Multifamily$0.00.0%0.0%
Virginia Beach – Office$0.00.0%0.0%
Virginia Beach – Other$0.00.0%0.0%
Virginia Beach – Retail$163.720.1%-0.2%
Virginia Beach – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Washington, DC – Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA$835.82.6%1.1%
Washington, DC – Hotel$36.23.3%-0.2%
Washington, DC – Industrial$0.00.0%0.0%
Washington, DC – Multifamily$228.61.5%1.5%
Washington, DC – Office$463.76.1%1.8%
Washington, DC – Other$32.92.2%0.0%
Washington, DC – Retail$74.52.3%0.0%
Washington, DC – Self Storage$0.00.0%0.0%
Grand Total$22,640.63.2%0.3%

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers to CRED iQ use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion of CMBS, CRE CLO, SBLL, Ginnie Mae, FHA/HUD, and Freddie Mac loan and property data.

December 2022 Delinquency Report

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DQ = All delinquent CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe, including specially serviced and non-specially serviced loans
SS = All specially serviced CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe, including current, delinquent and REO
DQ + SS = All distressed CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe that are delinquent, specially serviced, or a combination of both

The CRED iQ delinquency rate for CMBS closed out year-end 2022 with a rate of 3.49% for the December 2022 reporting period. The delinquency rate marginally increased throughout Q4 2022 but was down overall compared to the start of the year. The delinquency rate (3.49%) is equal to the percentage of all delinquent specially serviced loans and delinquent non-specially serviced loans, for CRED iQ’s sample universe of $500+ billion in CMBS conduit and single asset single-borrower (SASB) loans. CRED iQ’s special servicing rate, equal to the percentage of CMBS loans that are with the special servicer (delinquent and non-delinquent), increased month-over-month to 5.16% from 4.95%. Aggregating the two indicators of distress – delinquency rate and special servicing rate – into an overall distressed rate (DQ + SS%) equals 5.33% of CMBS loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. The overall distressed rate increased compared to the prior month’s distressed rate of 5.15%. These distressed rates typically track slightly higher than special servicing rates as most delinquent loans are also with the special servicer.

DQ = All delinquent CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe, including specially serviced and non-specially serviced loans
SS = All specially serviced CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe, including current, delinquent and REO
DQ + SS = All distressed CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe that are delinquent, specially serviced, or a combination of both

By property type, retail ended the year with the highest delinquency rate. The delinquency rate for retail increased 13% to 7.91%, compared to 7.00% as of November 2022. Retail started 2022 with the second-highest delinquency rate behind lodging; however, a lack of meaningful and sustained delinquency cures caused retail to be a laggard among property types for most of the year.

December’s delinquency retail rate was pushed higher in December by several maturity defaults. As one example, a $162.9 million loan secured by West County Center in Des Peres, MO defaulted on its December 1, 2022 maturity date. The collateral is a 743,945-sf portion of a regional mall owned by CBL Properties. The loan had been in special servicing since the onset of the pandemic in April 2020 but remained current in payment until its maturity default.

In addition to retail, delinquency rates for multifamily (2.61%), office (1.76%), and industrial (0.17%) also exhibited month-over-month increases during December 2022. Conversely, the delinquency rate for loans secured by lodging properties (4.63%) was lower compared to the prior month. Over the course of 2022, the delinquency rate for lodging has declined by more than 50% as part of a significant sector recovery from pandemic-related distress.

Switching focus to special servicing rates by property type, loans secured by office properties have exhibited the largest month-over-month increase among all property types. The office special servicing rate for December 2022 was 3.77%, compared to 3.31% as of the prior month. One of the largest office loans to transfer to special servicing was the $243.6 million Republic Plaza loan, which is secured by a 1.3 million-sf tower located in the CBD of Denver, CO. The loan defaulted on its December 1, 2022 maturity date.

Maturity defaults also stressed the special servicing rate for retail. The retail special servicing rate increased to 11.04% as of December 2022. One of the larger retail maturity defaults was a $75.4 million mortgage secured by Avenue Forsyth, a 523,535-sf retail center located in Cumming, GA. The special servicing rates for lodging, multifamily, and industrial commercial real estate loans declined compared to the prior month.

DQ + SS = All distressed CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe that are delinquent, specially serviced, or a combination of both

CRED iQ’s CMBS distressed rate (DQ + SS%) by property type accounts for loans that qualify for either delinquent or special servicing subsets. This month, the overall distressed rate for CMBS increased to 5.33%, which followed a relatively sharp increase in the overall delinquency rate. The increase in the overall CMBS distressed rate was primarily caused by loans entering maturity default such as the aforementioned West County Center and Republic Plaza loans. For additional information about these two loans, click View Details below:

[View Details][View Details]
LoanRepublic PlazaWest County Center
Balance$243,621,128$161,887,620
Special Servicer Transfer Date11/22/20224/6/2020

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

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CRED iQ’s Most-Read Posts of 2022

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As we prepare to turn the page to a new year, we decided to take one final look at 2022.

The CRED iQ team made the most out of 2022 for our clients by providing market constituents with commercial real estate analytics, loan and property data as well as fresh takes on commercial real estate trends and new cycles.

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Here are the stories that attracted the most attention in 2022:

#1    2023 CRE Maturity Outlook: The Year Ahead – Dec ’22:  Read here
#2    January 2022 Delinquency Report – Jan ’22:  Read here
#3    Top 20 Markets – Multifamily Revenue per Unit – Nov ’22:  Read here
#4    CMBS and CRE: Implications of Kohl’s Takeover – March’22:  Read here
#5    Aronson Joins CRED iQ as Chief Commercial Officer – Dec ’22:  Read here
#6    Starwood Mall Portfolio – March’22:  Read here
#7    Bed Bath & Beyond Closures – Jan ’22:  Read here
#8    Commercial Real Estate Auctions – March 2022 – March ’22:  Read here
#9    Lease Expirations – April ’22:  Read here  
#10  Rising Interest Rates for CMBS Loans –June ’22:  Read here

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.

The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.

If you would like to learn more about CRED iQ’s products and services, please contact team@cred-iq.com or (215) 220-6776.

Aronson Joins CRED iQ as Chief Commercial Officer

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Chris Aronson Joins CRED iQ as the new Chief Commercial Officer

Former EDR and Compstak Executive joins CRE data firm CRED iQ


“CRED iQ is the platform that the CRE world has been begging for—I have never witnessed this level of client enthusiasm,” said Aronson. “It is an honor to join this exceptional team as we enter an exciting new chapter of growth and innovation.”

Chris Aronson

NEW YORK and PHILADELPHIA:  CRED iQ, the fastest growing provider of commercial real estate (CRE) data, analytics and valuation is pleased to announce that Chris Aronson has joined the company as Chief Commercial Officer.

Chris brings deep leadership experience serving CRE investors, owners, and financial institutions. As CEO of EDR, he oversaw the delivery of CRE loan underwriting workflow/risk management software and data to over one thousand lenders globally. He then led the sale of the business for $205 Million. Chris also served as CEO of eDiligence, as well as Chief Commercial Officer at CompStak, both CRE data and analytics firms. Throughout his career, he has delivered strong growth and liquidity to investors, colleagues and stakeholders, including three successful exits.

“CRED iQ is the platform that the CRE world has been begging for—I have never witnessed this level of client enthusiasm,” said Aronson. “It is an honor to join this exceptional team as we enter an exciting new chapter of growth and innovation.”

“Chris is a world-class executive with a proven track record of launching & growing several data & tech businesses throughout his career, and I couldn’t be more thrilled to be working with him,” said Michael Haas, CRED iQ’s Co-Founder & CEO. “Chris’s leadership and operational experience will be invaluable as we launch new products next year and continue servicing our growing enterprise customer base.” 

CRED iQ provides actionable data to commercial real estate lenders, brokers, and investors. CRED iQ’s customers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities. Additionally, CRED iQ’s proprietary technology & valuation platform allows for the seamless integration of third-party data vendors to streamline workflows and improve business decisions.

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About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. The data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, SBLL, and all of the loans securitized within the GSE/Agency universe. 

CMBS – November 2022 Loan Dispositions and Payoffs

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CMBS conduit transactions incurred approximately $116 million in realized losses during November 2022 via the workout of distressed assets. CRED iQ identified 16 workouts classified as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs in November 2022. Of the 16 workouts, seven were resolved without a loss. One resolution — Ocean East Mall — was reported as having excess proceeds available after its disposition. Of the nine workouts resulting in losses, severities for the month of November ranged from 12% to 89%, based on outstanding balances at disposition. Aggregate realized losses in November 2022 were approximately 20% lower than October despite a similar number of workouts. On a monthly basis, realized losses for CMBS transactions averaged approximately $136.4 million year-to-date.

By property type, workouts were concentrated in retail, accounting for five of the 16 distressed resolutions. Lodging properties accounted for the next highest number of distressed workouts with four. Distressed workouts for office properties had the highest total of aggregate realized losses (approximately $70 million) and the highest average loss severity (50%) across all property types. The largest individual realized loss from CRED iQ’s observations was from the liquidation of two REO midwestern office properties with approximately $72.9 million of outstanding debt prior to disposition. The properties were part of the nine-property IRET Portfolio and had been specially serviced since 2016. All nine properties became REO and were subsequently liquidated over a workout period that spanned more than eight years, including the final two liquidations in November. Losses from the resolution totaled $64.7 million, equal to a loss severity of 89% based on the assets’ outstanding debt. The outstanding debt amount and loss severity from the IRET Portfolio were both the largest among this month’s distressed workouts.

The second-largest workout by outstanding debt amount was a note sale of a $72 million mortgage secured by the Bellis Fair Mall in Bellingham, WA. The note was secured by a 538,226-sf portion of the 776,136-sf regional mall. The note was sold for less than the collateral property’s April 2022 appraisal of $49.1 million, equal to $91/sf. The loan transferred to special servicing in February 2022 due to maturity default and was resolved eight months later with a 36% loss severity.

Excluding defeased loans, there was approximately $8.2 billion in securitized debt among CMBS conduit, SBLL, and Freddie Mac securitizations that was paid off or liquidated in November 2022, which was approximately an 11% increase compared to $7.3 billion in October 2022. In November, 6% of the loan resolutions were categorized as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs. The percentage of distressed workouts was 4.7% in the prior month. Approximately 35% of the loans were paid off with prepayment penalties, which was slightly higher than the prior month.

By property type, multifamily had the highest total of outstanding debt pay off in November with approximately half of the total by balance. Office had the next highest outstanding debt pay off with 18% of the total. Among the largest individual payoffs was a $265 million mortgage secured by the Chrysler East Building located at 666 Third Avenue in Manhattan, NY.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

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Workforce Reductions in NYC Impact Commercial Real Estate

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CRED iQ tracked major workforce reductions for the New York City metropolitan area through year-to-date 2022. A major workforce reduction is defined as a closing or layoff event that impacts 25 or more employees from a business that has more than 50 full-time employees. CRED iQ identified approximately 130 of these events, which have impacted nearly 8,000 employees from January 2022 through the first week of December 2022.

Most notable from our observations is a significant surge in workforce reductions in November 2022, when more than 1,600 employees were affected. On average, about 700 employees were impacted by workforce reductions per month. As such, the month of November exhibited activity that was more than two times greater than the monthly average. Overall, the number of employees impacted by workforce reductions is significantly higher when accounting for business with less than 50 full-time employees and events affecting less than 25 employees.

Large reductions in workforce are often sources of headline risk with the likes of Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, and Snap all making similar announcements in 2022 regarding a reduced workforce. However, the impacts of these events may not be evident through high-level labor statistics. The US unemployment rate, often considered a lagging indicator, has declined from 4% in January 2022 to 3.7% as of November 2022. On a more granular level, the unemployment rate for the New York City MSA has declined 25% from January 2022 (5.6%) through October (4.2%). With a large workforce reduction in September 2022 and the surge of reduction events in November 2022, it remains to be seen if the activity is enough to soften the unemployment rate for New York City MSA over time. Often, separation or closing dates are delayed by a few months and permanent reductions take time to bake into high-level statistics.

A more immediate impact may be seen in the commercial real estate industry. In theory, a reduction in workforce by a company can be followed by a reduction in the need for commercial space. CRED iQ identified notable CMBS properties that have been impacted, including 225 Park Avenue. Facebook occupied 266,460 sf of space at 225 Park Avenue, equal to 39% of NRA at the property, but the firm terminated its lease agreement in October 2022, five years prior to lease expiration in October 2027. The property secures a $235 million mortgage that matures in June 2027.

Another notable workforce event was Warner Media’s shuttering of its CNN+ platform in April 2022. CNN+ operated as a segment of Turner Broadcasting under the Warner Media umbrella with operations based out of 30 Hudson Yards. Warner Media occupies the entirety of the 1.4 million-sf office condo with a lease that expires in June 2034. The CNN+ business segment took up at least one of Time Warner’s 26 floors of space as well as additional studio space.

Most common among property uses that were impacted by workforce reductions were hotels and restaurants. Some hotels were permanently closed while other lodging properties lost contracts to provide temporary housing for COVID quarantines during the year. One hotel in CMBS that was impacted was the Mr. C Seaport Hotel. The 66-key hotel secures a $30.9 million mortgage that transferred to special servicing in August 2022. Reports indicate that the borrower is working to sell the hotel to another party. As year-end 2022 comes to a close, a close eye on the possibility of tenants downsizing can foreshadow implications for associated commercial real estate properties.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

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Maturing Loans in 2023: Video Recording

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During our recent webinar, CRED iQ’s Co-Founder and CEO discussed the record CRE loan maturities on deck for 2023. $162 Billion! Each maturity is an opportunity for Investors, Lenders and Brokers. The webinar dives deep into the following topics:

  • Building a list of Maturing Loans
  • How Brokers, Lenders and Investors can Find Opportunities
  • Contacting Borrowers/Owners & Lenders with CRED iQ
  • High Interest Rates & Maturity Risk
  • CRE Valuations in Today’s Market

If you happened to miss the live webinar, don’t worry! We have a video recording that’s available here:

Watch Video Recording Now

Zoom Video Passcode: CW^%24#U

CRED iQ gets you ahead of the market.  Identify and track all maturities and then explore the existing terms, performance, status and market analytics for each property securing the loan.  You can even run valuation scenarios and review comps right on the platform. We have the industry’s best ownership data and contact information—putting you directly in touch with the decision makers for your targeted opportunities.  

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

2023 CRE Maturity Outlook: The Year Ahead

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CRED iQ prepared for the year ahead in commercial real estate by examining securitized commercial mortgages with maturity dates scheduled in 2023. CRED iQ’s database has approximately $162 billion in commercial mortgages that are scheduled to mature in 2023, including loans securitized in CMBS conduit trusts, single-borrower large-loan securitizations (SBLL) and CRE CLOs, as well as multifamily mortgages securitized through government-sponsored entities. The next 12 months have the highest volume of scheduled maturities for securitized CRE loans over a period of 10 years ending 2032.

By securitization type, the SBLL securitization subset of nearly $100 billion comprises the majority (61%) of scheduled maturities in 2023; however, approximately 94% of that balance is tied to floating-rate loans that have extension options available, providing no assurances of refinancing or new origination opportunities.

Explore Loans Maturing in 2023

CMBS conduit loans account for the second-highest total of loans with 2023 maturity dates with approximately $29 billion in 2023 scheduled maturities, accounting for 18% of total scheduled maturities. This group of loans provides for diverse observation across property type, building class, and geographic location. Breaking down 2023 conduit maturities by property type, retail has the highest concentration with 42% of outstanding debt and is followed by office with 22%. Lodging has the third-highest concentration with 14% of the outstanding balance of scheduled maturities in 2023.

From a monthly perspective, CMBS conduit loan maturities are dispersed fairly evenly throughout the year. May 2023 has the highest total of scheduled maturities out of any month with $3.9 billion. September 2023 has the second-highest total with $2.9 billion in scheduled maturities and is followed by January 2023, also with $2.9 billion. The January 2023 subtotal of maturities has potential to drop significantly over the next few weeks as refinances close ahead of yearend. Loans generally have three to four-month open periods so lenders often have the opportunity to provide refinancing earlier than stated maturity dates.

Approximately 12% of the 2023 scheduled maturity debt for CMBS conduits is already delinquent or in special servicing, foreshadowing potential maturity defaults, delayed payoffs, or extended workouts.

Multifamily

The multifamily sector is the only property type represented across all various securitization structures in the 2023 maturity analysis, which includes Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae mortgage debt. Aside from single-borrower large-loan multifamily loans with relatively higher probabilities of being extended, Freddie Mac securitizations accounted for the second-highest outstanding balance of scheduled maturities in 2023 with approximately $7.7 billion. Following close behind, there is about $7.5 billion in multifamily loans securitized in CRE CLOs that are scheduled to mature in 2023. Many multifamily loans securitized in CRE CLO vehicles are secured by transitional apartment properties moving up in building class through value-add initiatives. Although many of these loans have floating rates, the idea of locking in fixed-rate financing after completion of value adds may be an optimal completion of properties’ business plans. Fannie Mae multifamily loans also account for a considerable portion of 2023 maturities with $7.3 billion in outstanding debt coming due over the next year.

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Retail

Among CMBS conduit debt, retail is the property type with the highest volume of schedule maturities in 2023. There is over $12 billion in retail loans coming due in 2023, accounting for 42% of total scheduled 2023 maturities. Loans secured by retail properties have had the highest delinquency rates among all properties times for most of 2022. CRED iQ’s delinquency rate for retail was 7.06% as of October 2022 and has potential to rise throughout 2023 as maturity defaults occur in the process of sorting out payoff resolutions.

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Office

Perhaps one of the highest concerns from lenders is refinancing office loans. In the CMBS conduit environment, there is approximately $6.3 billion in loans secured by office properties scheduled to mature in 2023. This accounts for 22% of the total 2023 CMBS conduit maturities. CRED iQ’s special servicer rate for office loans has increased for three consecutive months from July 2022 through October 2022. Recessionary pressures, downsizing from tech firms and others, and the evolution of workplace dynamics from the fallout of the pandemic have all been encompassing forces have had an adverse impact on office loan originations.

Explore Office Loans

Looking Back and Looking Forward

Aside from a focus on 2023 maturities, the year ahead brings plenty of opportunities within the CRE industry. Looking back — there is over $35 billion in outstanding debt with a past due scheduled maturity date that still needs to be worked out as well as several billion dollars in REO assets that are on track to be liquidated. Looking ahead to 2024 — CRED iQ’s early estimates indicated nearly $155 billion in scheduled maturities; however, the aggregate total is fluid when considering loan extensions and potential prepayments throughout 2023.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

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