March 2023 Delinquency Report

March 30, 2023

*DQ = All delinquent CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe, including specially serviced and non-specially serviced loans*
*SS = All specially serviced CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe, including current, delinquent and REO*
*DQ + SS = All distressed CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe that are delinquent, specially serviced, or a combination of both*

The CRED iQ delinquency rate for CMBS for the month of March 2023 increased for the second consecutive month to 3.77%. The delinquency rate was 19 basis points higher than the prior month’s delinquency rate of 3.58%. The increases in delinquency are congruent with headline risk related to industry-wide concerns surrounding commercial real estate debt in an economic slowdown. The delinquency rate is equal to the percentage of all delinquent specially serviced loans and delinquent non-specially serviced loans, for CRED iQ’s sample universe of $600+ billion in CMBS conduit and single asset single-borrower (SASB) loans. CRED iQ’s special servicing rate, equal to the percentage of CMBS loans that are with the special servicer (delinquent and non-delinquent), also increased month-over-month to 5.53% from 5.10%. The special servicing rate increased by approximately 40 basis points in each of the two preceding months. Aggregating the two indicators of distress – delinquency rate and special servicing rate – into an overall distressed rate (DQ + SS%) equals 5.73% of CMBS loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. In parallel with delinquency and special servicing rates, the overall distressed rate increased compared to the prior month’s distressed rate of 5.29%. Distressed rates generally track slightly higher than special servicing rates as most delinquent loans are also with the special servicer.

By property type, focus will naturally narrow on the delinquency rate for the office sector given the headwinds the property type is facing. The delinquency rate for loans secured by office properties increased to 3.09% as of March 2023, which was 78 basis points higher than February and represented a 34% month-over-month increase. The office delinquency rate has increased for four consecutive months and is at its highest level since 2020 when CRED iQ started tracking delinquency rates.

Major delinquencies continue to stress the office landscape. Last month was headlined by Columbia Property Trust’s payment default on $1.7 billion in mortgage debt secured by seven office properties located in New York, San Francisco, Boston, and Jersey City. Among this month’s newly delinquent office loans was a $350 million floating-rate mortgage secured by the Gas Company Tower in Los Angeles, CA. The loan defaulted at maturity in February 2023 and subsequently transferred to special servicing. The loan’s credit issues included additional leverage from $115 million in mezzanine debt and an interest rate cap agreement that expired in February 2023. Additionally, reported occupancy for the DTLA office tower was 73%, adding to the recipe of distress.

Delinquency rates for retail (7.86%), lodging (4.58%), office (3.09%), and multifamily (3.04%) all exhibited month-over-month increases. Delinquency rates for industrial (0.33%) and self-storage (0.05%) were relatively unchanged compared to the prior month.

Pivoting to special servicing rates, all property types besides self-storage exhibited month-over-month increases in the percentage of loans transferred to the special servicer. The retail sector has the highest specially serviced rate among all property types at 11.25%. The elevated special servicing rate for retail properties continues to be anchored by regional malls. A $242.2 million mortgage secured by a 780,000-SF portion of the Fair Oaks Mall in Fairfax, VA transferred to special servicing in late-February 2023 due to anticipated maturity default ahead of the loan’s May 2023 maturity date. Similarly, a $300 million mortgage secured by the 1.0 million-SF Bergen Town Center transferred to special servicing in March 2023 ahead of its May 2023 maturity date. Given the current refi environment, workouts for both loans may benefit from relief in the form of extension or modifications.

Aside from retail, the special servicing rate for lodging came in at 6.10%, a modest increase compared to February. The special servicing rate for office surged to 4.97%, representing a 19% month-over-month increase. Multifamily (3.78%) and industrial (0.43%) special servicing rates also exhibited increases. Special servicing inventory for loans secured by self-storage properties has been negligible for the past two months.

*DQ + SS = All distressed CMBS loans in the conduit and SASB universe that are delinquent, specially serviced, or a combination of both*

CRED iQ’s CMBS distressed rate (DQ + SS%) by property type accounts for loans that qualify for either delinquent or special servicing subsets. This month, the overall distressed rate for CMBS increased to 5.73%. The increase was 44 basis points higher than February’s distressed rate (5.29%), equal to an 8% increase. Although all property types experienced higher distress in March 2023 compared to February, the office sector was the biggest driver behind the change. Lastly, the spread between the overall delinquency rate and the special servicing rate increased in March 2023, indicating that many loans were transferred to special servicing preemptively prior to payment default or delinquency. This spread has potential to tighten as special servicing loans that are current in payment deteriorate in payment status as workouts are prolonged.

For additional information about two of this month’s largest loans that transferred to special servicing, click View Details below:

	[View Details]	[View Details]
Loan	Gas Company Tower	Fair Oaks Mall
Balance	$350 million	$242.2 million
Special Servicer Transfer Date	2/10/2023	2/28/2023

About CRED iQ

The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.

CRED-iQ-March-2023-Delinquency-Report Download

CRE CLO Interest Rate Cap Agreements: Risks and Opportunities

CRED iQ

March 23, 2023

CRED iQ sourced and analyzed interest rate cap agreements for nearly 700 floating-rate loans that have been securitized in CRE CLOs (Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligations). Interest rate cap agreements included in the analysis covered more than $30 billion in aggregate notional balance. The analysis was completed in response to an environment conditioned by rising interest rates, and corresponding benchmark indexes for floating-rate commercial real estate debt that have risen dramatically over the past year. In some ways, March 2023 marks an allegorical anniversary of this era of rising rates. One of the primary benchmarking indexes for floating-rate commercial real estate debt — SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) — has risen from ~0.5% in March 2022 to ~4.5% as of mid-March 2023. The velocity of interest rate increases has made interest rate cap agreements a timely focus point for the commercial real estate industry that heavily relies of floating-rate debt.

Key Takeaways:

CRED iQ identified and compiled key parameters for interest rate cap agreements for nearly 700 floating-rate commercial real estate loans totaling more than $30 billion in notional.
Interest rate cap agreements in the sample dataset have termination dates ranging from 2023 to 2026. Of those rate cap agreements with expiration dates in the next four years, 40% have expiration dates that occur prior to respective loans’ maturity dates.
Current note rates, absent a rate cap agreement, are approximately 200 bps higher on average than effective note rates that have been capped via agreements’ strike prices.
From a credit risk perspective, rate cap agreement expirations are a source of potential pressure on debt service coverage ratios and also present refinancing risk at loan maturity.
Rate cap expirations can also be a source of opportunities, if identified in a timely manner, to monetize in-the-money agreements as well as facilitate transaction volume.

CRED iQ’s observations included approximately 680 securitized floating-rate mortgages with an aggregate outstanding balance totaling over $25 billion. The observations do not represent an exhaustive list of the CRE CLO universe, but rather a significant subset of the CRE CLO loan population — in many cases, granular information related to interest rate cap agreements was not widely available for the entire universe of CRE CLO loans. Due to the structure of the mortgages observed, the notional balances of the interest rate cap agreements were often higher than outstanding loan balances to account for non-securitized portions of the whole loans and future funding amounts that may be available to borrowers to carry out business plans for stabilization and repositioning of loan collateral.

In the analysis, multifamily properties accounted for most of the loan collateral composition by property type. Loans secured by multifamily properties accounted for 76% of the total quantity of floating-rate mortgages in the dataset. Generally, multifamily properties serving as collateral were slated for transition to higher quality/class assets. Loans secured by office properties accounted for 9% of the total and industrial loans accounted for 6%. Often, these office and industrial properties needed stabilization in the form of lease-up or repositioning at the time of origination.

SMBC is the most prevalent provider of interest rate cap agreements. The firm provided nearly 90% of the agreements for the loans in CRED iQ’s analysis. As many as eight additional firms provided interest rate cap agreements, including US Bank (5% of total) and Goldman Sachs (4% of total). Of note, many interest rate cap providers will only provide agreements if a prior lending relationship exists, which can contribute to the counterparty concentration observed with SMBC.

The termination date of an interest rate cap agreement compared to a loan’s maturity date can be a source of credit risk. The proverbial wall of maturities — detailed in CRED iQ’s 2023 CRE Maturity Outlook — may also have arêtes of rate cap expirations on the windward side. In the chart below, interest rate cap agreements in the analysis were grouped together by expiration date. There are three quarters — Q3 2023, Q1 2024, and Q2 2024 — in which nearly $5 billion in notional rate cap agreements are set to expire. Furthermore, the dataset includes approximately 100 expiring agreements spanning five consecutive quarters, starting in Q3 2023. This visualization of expiring interest rate cap agreements shares similarities to widely circulated maturity wall data over the near to intermediate term; although timing of rate cap expirations and maturities is not commonly coterminous.

If the interest rate cap agreement expires before the loan is scheduled to mature, debt service on the mortgage could surge substantially, absent a new or extended interest rate cap agreement. To put this in perspective, current note rates, absent a rate cap agreement, are approximately 200 bps higher on average than effective notes rates that have been capped via strike prices from respective interest rate cap agreements. Of the 682 loans observed by CRED iQ, approximately 40% were structured with interest rate cap agreements that were scheduled to terminate prior to loans’ maturity dates. This is especially relevant considering all loans in the analysis benefitted from the in-place interest rate cap agreement as of February 2023. In other words, every single rate cap agreement in the analysis was activated and capping respective borrowers’ debt service.

Opportunistically, real estate professionals can view interest rate cap agreements with remaining term as a method of monetization. Keeping in mind the bridge financing attributes of loans securitized in CRE CLOs, borrowers have historically looked to lock in fixed-rate financing after the completion of a business plan or the stabilization of the collateral property. Locking in fixed-rate financing in 2023 may no longer be a palatable option given the run up in interest rates; however, the particular dynamics and attributes of individual properties’ cash flows and credit risk can still facilitate refinancing or sales transactions. Some deals are stilling closing. In these cases, if a loan prepays and the interest rate cap agreement still has term remaining, the rate cap agreement likely has value and can be monetized to the benefit of the borrower to close a transaction. Timeliness is an important factor in the monetization of interest rate cap agreements; all else equal the values of rate caps decline as the agreements approach termination dates.

We conclude the analysis with a few notable examples of interest rate cap agreements, including a time-series view of the exponential rise in the cost of capping floating-rate debt. Using rate cap pricing information from Derivative Logic, an independent hedge advisory firm, we leveraged CRED iQ’s property and loan-level data to evaluate the year-over-year change in cost for interest rate cap protection for five of the largest floating-rate mortgages in the dataset. One of the most extreme examples was a $337.5 million agreement expiring in February 2024 with a strike price of 4.00%. A year ago, the rate cap for such a deal would have cost approximately $780,000 but the cost had risen to $3.5 million as of mid-March 2023 — equal to a 348% year-over-year increase. In fact, all five sample rate caps shown in the chart and table below exhibited more than 2x growth in total costs over the course of trailing 12 months.

No matter the perspective, knowing the parameters and monetary values of interest rate cap agreements will play an integral part in facilitating commercial real estate transactions over the next year and beyond, with or without stable interest rates.
For the complete dataset featuring detailed loan information and specific attributes of individual interest rate cap agreements, please reach out to team@cred-iq.com. The dataset includes rate cap expiration dates, notional amounts, and strike prices among other data points.

Click Here to Access Rate Cap Dataset

About CRED iQ

Chart-Finance-x-CRED-iQ-CRE-CLO-Interest-Rate-Caps Download

Distressed Workouts and Payoffs – February 2023

CRED iQ

March 13, 2023

CMBS transactions incurred approximately $129 million in realized losses during February 2023 via the workout of distressed assets. CRED iQ identified 17 workouts classified as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs in February 2023. Of the 17 workouts, six were resolved without a loss. Of the 11 workouts resulting in losses, severities for the month of February ranged from 1% to 95%, based on outstanding balances at disposition. Aggregate realized losses in February 2023 were approximately 70% higher than January 2023 despite fewer distressed workouts. On a monthly basis, realized losses for CMBS transactions averaged approximately $128 million during the trailing 12 months, which was in line with this month’s aggregate total.

By property type, workouts were concentrated in lodging, accounting for six of the 17 distressed resolutions. Distressed workouts for lodging properties had the second-highest total of aggregate realized losses ($17.5 million), which accounted for 13.5% of the total for the month. The largest distressed workout featuring a lodging property was a $17.5 million loan secured by Embassy Suites Lubbock, a 156-key full-service hotel located in Lubbock, TX. The loan transferred to special servicing in June 2020 due to pandemic-related performance issues. The loan was originally set to mature in January 2023 but was ultimately resolved in February 2023 with a $16.4 million loss, equal to a 93.5% severity.

The largest workout by both outstanding debt balance and individual loss amount was the Town Center at Cobb, a 559,940-SF portion of a regional mall located in Cobb County, GA, which is approximately 25 miles northwest of Atlanta. The property became REO in February 2021 and had outstanding debt of $166.7 million at the time of liquidation. Realized losses from the REO regional mall totaled $96.5 million, equal to a 58% loss severity based on the outstanding balance prior to liquidation. The Town Center at Cobb liquidation alone accounted for 75% of the aggregate realized losses observed by CRED iQ this month.

Also notable among February’s list of distressed workouts were three multifamily properties, including two that incurred losses. Distressed workouts involving multifamily properties have been few in number over the past several months and have generally been able to be resolved without a principal loss. However, this month’s results show that even the multifamily sector is not immune from distress. Other rare property type appearances in February’s tally of distressed workouts included a co-operative housing property and a self-storage facility.

Excluding defeased loans, there was approximately $3.5 billion in securitized debt among CMBS conduit, Single-Borrower Large-Loan, and Freddie Mac securitizations that was paid off or liquidated in February 2023, which was approximately a 38% decrease compared to $5.7 billion in January 2023. In February, 8% of the loan resolutions were categorized as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs. The percentage of distressed workouts was 7% in the prior month. Approximately 6% of the loans were paid off with prepayment penalties, which was significantly less than 28% as of the prior month.

Excluding Freddie Mac securitizations, multifamily had the highest total of outstanding debt payoff in February with approximately 37% of the total by balance. Lodging and office were the property types with the next highest outstanding debt payoff with 23% and 19% of the total, respectively. Aside from Town Center at Cobb, the largest individual payoffs included a $345 million senior mortgage secured by the Rio All-Suite Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, NV and a $195 million mortgage secured by the Aruba Marriott Resort in the Caribbean.

About CRED iQ

CRED-iQ-CMBS-February-2023-Distressed-Workouts-and-Payoffs Download

Commercial Real Estate Market Delinquency Tracker – February 2023

CRED iQ

March 7, 2023

CRED iQ monitors distressed rates and market performance for nearly 400 MSAs across the United States, covering over $900 billion in outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt. Distressed rates (DQ + SS%) include loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. Distressed rates and month-over-month changes for data reported as of February 2023 are presented below for the 50 largest MSAs, broken out by property type for a granular view of distress by market-sector.

Distress became more prevalent in a majority of primary markets during February 2023. Of the 50 largest MSAs tracked by CRED iQ, 34 of those markets exhibited comparatively higher levels of distress in commercial real estate loans than one month prior. The average month-over-month increase in distressed rates for these 34 markets was approximately 21 basis points. The Birmingham, AL MSA (+1.0%) exhibited the highest month-over-month increase in distress. Other notable markets with increased levels of distress this month included Pittsburgh (+0.8%), Memphis (+0.7%), and Los Angeles (+0.7%).

There were 16 MSAs among the Top 50 that exhibited month-over-month improvements in distressed rates. These included Portland (-2.4%), Cleveland (-2.3%), and San Francisco (-1.7%). Despite this month’s improvement, Cleveland continued to have one of the highest distressed rates among all markets that were tracked with 8.4% of commercial real estate loans that were either delinquent or specially serviced.

For a more granular analysis of the Top 50 markets, CRED iQ further delineated individual markets’ distressed rates by property type for a comprehensive view by market-sector. Headline risk from office markets have dominated news cycles since year-end 2022. Thematic evidence of office distress was apparent in February 2023 data with three office markets exhibiting significant month-over-month increases in distress — Birmingham, AL (+4.6%), Columbus, OH (+4.3%), and Memphis (+4.1%). The increase in distress in the Birmingham market was impacted by a $22.5 million loan secured by Chase Corporate Center, a 211,257-SF office property. The loan defaulted at maturity in February 2023 and subsequently transferred to special servicing. Refinancing efforts may have been hindered by the relatively short remaining lease term of the property’s largest tenant, Cigna, which accounts for 34% of the property’s GLA. Cigna’s lease is scheduled to expire in November 2024, less than two years after loan maturity.

Despite heightened attention on office market-sectors, five of the 10 largest month-over-month increases in distress were associated with hotel market-sectors. The lodging sector for Birmingham, AL exhibited the sharpest increase (+9.2%) in February following the special servicing transfer of a $10.4 million loan secured by Hotel Indigo Birmingham due to imminent monetary default. Additionally, two Virginia Beach hotel loans with the same sponsor, totaling $22.2 million, became 30 days delinquent in February. The delinquencies contributed to the distressed rate for the Virginia Beach hotel market increasing by 5.0%.

The Portland retail market and the Cleveland office market were among market-sectors that exhibited the highest levels of improvement in distress this month. With regards to the Portland retail market, a $211 million loan secured by the Clackamas Town Center returned to the master servicer in January 2023 after its maturity date was extended from November 2022 to October 2024. The loan is secured by a 1.4 million-SF regional mall located in Happy Valley, OR.

The Minneapolis MSA has the highest overall distressed rate at 20.7%, which was slightly higher than the previous month. Birmingham (11.4%), Milwaukee (8.9%), Cleveland (8.4%), and Charlotte (7.9%) comprise the remaining markets with the highest rates of distress. Office and lodging distress were primary drivers in the ascension of Birmingham’s ranking of distress. The Salt Lake City MSA (0.1%) displaced Sacramento as the market with the lowest percentage of distress among the Top 50 MSAs. A modest increase in distress in the Sacramento market pushed the MSA to the fourth-lowest ranking of distress among the Top 50 markets.

For the full Market DelinQuency Tracker Report, download here:

CRED-iQ-Market-Delinquency-Tracker-February-2023 Download

MSA – Property Type	DQ/SS (millions)	DS/SS (%)	Monthly Change
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ MSA	$78.5	2.5%	0.1%
Allentown – Hotel	$1.5	4.1%	3.1%
Allentown – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Allentown – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Allentown – Office	$58.1	18.1%	0.2%
Allentown – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Allentown – Retail	$18.9	5.1%	0.0%
Allentown – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA	$544.7	2.0%	0.1%
Atlanta – Hotel	$81.9	3.3%	0.0%
Atlanta – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Office	$83.6	3.5%	0.5%
Atlanta – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Retail	$379.2	17.4%	0.0%
Atlanta – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA	$103.3	1.1%	-0.1%
Austin – Hotel	$50.2	5.7%	0.0%
Austin – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Other	$4.1	1.4%	0.1%
Austin – Retail	$48.9	6.4%	-0.7%
Austin – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA	$352.8	3.7%	0.0%
Baltimore – Hotel	$43.7	9.1%	0.1%
Baltimore – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Baltimore – Multifamily	$3.8	0.1%	0.0%
Baltimore – Office	$46.5	5.3%	-0.2%
Baltimore – Other	$11.5	6.2%	0.0%
Baltimore – Retail	$247.2	22.7%	-0.2%
Baltimore – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA	$354.6	11.4%	1.0%
Birmingham – Hotel	$10.4	9.2%	9.2%
Birmingham – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Multifamily	$63.2	4.5%	0.0%
Birmingham – Office	$116.8	23.5%	4.6%
Birmingham – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Retail	$164.2	23.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA	$122.9	0.6%	0.0%
Boston – Hotel	$19.3	1.2%	0.0%
Boston – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Office	$14.5	0.2%	0.0%
Boston – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Retail	$89.1	5.0%	-0.1%
Boston – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT MSA	$200.4	4.9%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Hotel	$39.4	26.3%	2.0%
Bridgeport – Industrial	$17.8	15.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Office	$133.3	11.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Other	$9.8	3.3%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC MSA	$600.4	7.9%	0.4%
Charlotte – Hotel	$47.4	5.3%	1.3%
Charlotte – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Charlotte – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Charlotte – Office	$354.7	38.4%	0.0%
Charlotte – Other	$114.9	36.3%	5.2%
Charlotte – Retail	$83.5	9.0%	-0.2%
Charlotte – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA	$2,326.5	7.7%	-0.1%
Chicago – Hotel	$749.5	32.1%	1.1%
Chicago – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Chicago – Multifamily	$62.8	0.7%	0.1%
Chicago – Office	$1,082.8	12.5%	0.1%
Chicago – Other	$208.3	8.2%	0.0%
Chicago – Retail	$223.1	7.0%	-0.9%
Chicago – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA	$137.3	3.6%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Hotel	$87.1	30.2%	0.2%
Cincinnati – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Other	$6.8	2.6%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Retail	$43.4	7.9%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA	$354.2	8.4%	-2.3%
Cleveland – Hotel	$84.7	46.5%	0.1%
Cleveland – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cleveland – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cleveland – Office	$89.7	10.1%	-11.2%
Cleveland – Other	$172.2	43.0%	0.1%
Cleveland – Retail	$7.7	1.1%	0.0%
Cleveland – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH MSA	$185.2	2.7%	0.4%
Columbus, OH – Hotel	$20.0	7.1%	0.3%
Columbus, OH – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Office	$57.5	9.1%	4.3%
Columbus, OH – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Retail	$107.7	12.9%	-0.1%
Columbus, OH – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA	$221.3	0.6%	0.0%
Dallas – Hotel	$69.9	2.0%	-0.2%
Dallas – Industrial	$2.4	0.2%	0.2%
Dallas – Multifamily	$8.5	0.0%	0.0%
Dallas – Office	$109.8	3.8%	0.6%
Dallas – Other	$4.9	0.2%	0.0%
Dallas – Retail	$25.8	1.3%	-0.5%
Dallas – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Denver-Aurora, CO MSA	$839.8	5.4%	0.2%
Denver – Hotel	$19.2	2.5%	-1.6%
Denver – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Denver – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Denver – Office	$680.3	32.9%	0.6%
Denver – Other	$94.1	10.0%	2.9%
Denver – Retail	$46.2	3.4%	0.0%
Denver – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA	$268.2	2.6%	0.0%
Detroit – Hotel	$84.0	11.7%	0.3%
Detroit – Industrial	$20.4	3.3%	0.0%
Detroit – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Detroit – Office	$21.0	0.8%	0.1%
Detroit – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Detroit – Retail	$142.8	9.8%	0.2%
Detroit – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA	$195.6	7.5%	-1.4%
Hartford – Hotel	$44.3	37.7%	-4.7%
Hartford – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Office	$25.0	9.2%	0.0%
Hartford – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Retail	$126.3	42.6%	-5.2%
Hartford – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA	$1,146.9	4.5%	0.1%
Houston – Hotel	$463.1	46.0%	1.0%
Houston – Industrial	$32.7	5.2%	-3.7%
Houston – Multifamily	$12.1	0.1%	0.0%
Houston – Office	$491.9	14.0%	-0.4%
Houston – Other	$62.8	10.8%	5.7%
Houston – Retail	$84.2	2.1%	-0.1%
Houston – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA	$175.6	3.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Hotel	$110.0	18.1%	0.9%
Indianapolis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Office	$60.0	10.3%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Retail	$5.6	1.6%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville, FL MSA	$111.9	2.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Retail	$111.9	28.6%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS MSA	$82.6	1.4%	0.0%
Kansas City – Hotel	$30.3	12.6%	1.1%
Kansas City – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Multifamily	$3.8	0.1%	0.0%
Kansas City – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Retail	$48.4	8.5%	0.0%
Kansas City – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA	$245.3	1.1%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Retail	$245.3	6.5%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA	$1,336.9	2.5%	0.7%
Los Angeles – Hotel	$84.2	1.5%	0.1%
Los Angeles – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Los Angeles – Multifamily	$270.0	1.3%	0.0%
Los Angeles – Office	$34.3	0.3%	0.0%
Los Angeles – Other	$89.3	2.7%	1.0%
Los Angeles – Retail	$859.1	13.6%	6.8%
Los Angeles – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA	$70.7	2.3%	0.0%
Louisville – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Retail	$70.7	14.4%	0.1%
Louisville – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA	$89.9	3.7%	0.7%
Memphis – Hotel	$13.7	6.2%	0.8%
Memphis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Office	$10.5	4.1%	4.1%
Memphis – Other	$5.3	18.0%	18.0%
Memphis – Retail	$60.4	16.6%	-0.1%
Memphis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA	$267.6	1.1%	0.0%
Miami – Hotel	$40.5	0.8%	0.0%
Miami – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami – Office	$4.1	0.2%	0.0%
Miami – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami – Retail	$223.1	4.3%	0.2%
Miami – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA	$219.1	8.9%	0.2%
Milwaukee – Hotel	$16.6	11.2%	0.8%
Milwaukee – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Office	$96.7	17.7%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Other	$0.0	0.0%	-0.2%
Milwaukee – Retail	$105.9	23.2%	0.1%
Milwaukee – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA	$1,736.6	20.7%	0.3%
Minneapolis – Hotel	$247.4	41.6%	2.5%
Minneapolis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Minneapolis – Multifamily	$20.5	0.7%	0.0%
Minneapolis – Office	$64.5	3.3%	0.1%
Minneapolis – Other	$4.1	0.8%	0.0%
Minneapolis – Retail	$1,400.0	74.9%	0.7%
Minneapolis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA	$64.8	1.1%	-0.4%
Nashville – Hotel	$51.8	3.5%	-0.1%
Nashville – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Office	$0.0	0.0%	-4.9%
Nashville – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Retail	$13.1	1.8%	0.0%
Nashville – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA MSA	$131.9	3.7%	0.0%
New Orleans – Hotel	$59.9	5.2%	0.2%
New Orleans – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
New Orleans – Multifamily	$8.3	0.9%	0.0%
New Orleans – Office	$27.1	5.3%	-0.2%
New Orleans – Other	$14.7	9.6%	0.0%
New Orleans – Retail	$21.9	3.3%	0.0%
New Orleans – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA	$6,450.8	4.8%	-0.2%
New York City – Hotel	$751.6	19.6%	-3.6%
New York City – Industrial	$120.4	3.0%	0.7%
New York City – Multifamily	$564.7	1.4%	0.7%
New York City – Office	$1,462.4	3.0%	-0.8%
New York City – Other	$1,507.6	6.6%	0.3%
New York City – Retail	$2,044.0	15.7%	0.6%
New York City – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA	$114.0	1.1%	0.0%
Orlando – Hotel	$27.8	1.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Office	$57.7	13.5%	0.0%
Orlando – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Retail	$28.4	3.1%	0.0%
Orlando – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA	$840.4	4.0%	0.1%
Philadelphia – Hotel	$102.0	11.4%	0.7%
Philadelphia – Industrial	$10.4	0.3%	0.0%
Philadelphia – Multifamily	$41.1	0.4%	0.0%
Philadelphia – Office	$274.4	7.1%	0.4%
Philadelphia – Other	$389.0	31.6%	1.0%
Philadelphia – Retail	$23.5	1.1%	0.2%
Philadelphia – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA	$232.4	1.2%	0.1%
Phoenix – Hotel	$33.5	2.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Office	$55.7	2.5%	0.0%
Phoenix – Other	$8.6	0.9%	0.9%
Phoenix – Retail	$134.6	6.2%	0.0%
Phoenix – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh, PA MSA	$296.1	6.3%	0.8%
Pittsburgh – Hotel	$26.7	12.8%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Multifamily	$36.3	1.6%	1.6%
Pittsburgh – Office	$104.2	10.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Other	$116.2	33.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Retail	$7.8	1.3%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Self Storage	$4.8	4.1%	4.1%
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA	$321.4	3.6%	-2.4%
Portland – Hotel	$296.1	33.2%	-0.8%
Portland – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Portland – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Portland – Office	$25.2	5.1%	-0.3%
Portland – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Portland – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	-43.0%
Portland – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA	$32.5	0.9%	0.2%
Raleigh – Hotel	$15.3	6.7%	0.2%
Raleigh – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Other	$6.6	3.6%	3.6%
Raleigh – Retail	$10.6	3.9%	0.0%
Raleigh – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond, VA MSA	$158.4	4.8%	0.0%
Richmond – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Other	$12.9	8.8%	0.0%
Richmond – Retail	$145.5	31.1%	0.4%
Richmond – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA	$302.1	2.9%	-0.1%
Riverside – Hotel	$52.8	11.7%	0.4%
Riverside – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Retail	$249.3	12.3%	-0.6%
Riverside – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA MSA	$17.0	0.3%	0.2%
Sacramento – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Office	$6.1	0.8%	-0.1%
Sacramento – Other	$10.9	2.8%	2.8%
Sacramento – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City, UT MSA	$6.1	0.1%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Hotel	$6.1	2.1%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio, TX MSA	$132.9	2.1%	0.0%
San Antonio – Hotel	$17.7	6.9%	0.7%
San Antonio – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	-0.2%
San Antonio – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – Retail	$115.2	14.7%	0.0%
San Antonio – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA	$46.4	0.4%	0.0%
San Diego – Hotel	$39.4	2.0%	-1.3%
San Diego – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego – Multifamily	$4.1	0.1%	0.0%
San Diego – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego – Retail	$2.9	0.2%	0.0%
San Diego – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA	$261.4	1.0%	-1.7%
San Francisco – Hotel	$100.7	3.3%	0.9%
San Francisco – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Francisco – Multifamily	$11.9	0.2%	-5.7%
San Francisco – Office	$47.8	0.5%	-0.4%
San Francisco – Other	$38.6	1.4%	0.0%
San Francisco – Retail	$62.4	5.3%	1.0%
San Francisco – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA	$58.8	0.3%	0.0%
San Jose – Hotel	$35.4	0.5%	0.0%
San Jose – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Office	$23.4	0.3%	0.0%
San Jose – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA	$61.4	0.3%	0.0%
Seattle – Hotel	$61.4	4.3%	-0.1%
Seattle – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
St. Louis, MO-IL MSA	$209.2	4.9%	-0.2%
St. Louis – Hotel	$1.7	0.5%	-0.1%
St. Louis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
St. Louis – Multifamily	$3.2	0.2%	0.0%
St. Louis – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
St. Louis – Other	$14.0	2.8%	-1.1%
St. Louis – Retail	$190.3	20.3%	-0.4%
St. Louis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	$116.4	1.1%	-0.9%
Tampa – Hotel	$58.9	8.2%	0.0%
Tampa – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Office	$19.7	2.6%	-0.5%
Tampa – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Retail	$37.8	5.1%	-9.5%
Tampa – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson, AZ MSA	$157.3	4.6%	0.3%
Tucson – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Retail	$157.3	18.9%	3.6%
Tucson – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA	$203.8	4.1%	0.5%
Virginia Beach – Hotel	$35.8	8.0%	5.0%
Virginia Beach – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Other	$4.5	3.4%	3.4%
Virginia Beach – Retail	$163.6	19.2%	0.3%
Virginia Beach – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA	$652.4	2.0%	0.2%
Washington, DC – Hotel	$37.0	3.2%	0.1%
Washington, DC – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Washington, DC – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Washington, DC – Office	$501.5	6.6%	0.5%
Washington, DC – Other	$38.7	2.7%	0.6%
Washington, DC – Retail	$75.3	2.2%	0.0%
Washington, DC – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Grand Total	$23,236.4	3.2%	0.0%

About CRED iQ

February 2023 Delinquency Report

CRED iQ

March 1, 2023

The CRED iQ delinquency rate for CMBS for the month of February 2023 increased to 3.58%. The delinquency rate was 33 basis points higher than the prior month when it stood at 3.25%. The month-over-month increase in delinquency pushed the rate to its highest level since April 2022. The delinquency rate is equal to the percentage of all delinquent specially serviced loans and delinquent non-specially serviced loans, for CRED iQ’s sample universe of $600+ billion in CMBS conduit and single asset single-borrower (SASB) loans. CRED iQ’s special servicing rate, equal to the percentage of CMBS loans that are with the special servicer (delinquent and non-delinquent), also increased month-over-month to 5.10% from 4.71%. Aggregating the two indicators of distress – delinquency rate and special servicing rate – into an overall distressed rate (DQ + SS%) equals 5.29% of CMBS loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. In parallel with delinquency and special servicing rates, the overall distressed rate increased compared to the prior month’s distressed rate of 4.84%. Distressed rates generally track slightly higher than special servicing rates as most delinquent loans are also with the special servicer.

Congruent with prior months’ trends and recent headline risk, loans secured by office properties exhibited the sharpest month-over-month increase in delinquency. The delinquency rate for office increased to 2.31% in February 2023, compared to 2.16% as of January 2023. Office delinquency has increased for four consecutive months and is at its highest level since January 2022. One of the largest loans to be reported as delinquent this month was a $66 million loan secured by 375 Pearl Street, a 573,083-sf office tower located near City Hall in Manhattan, NY. The loan was previously reported delinquent in 2021 on multiple occasions. CBD office towers were not the only office sub-types showing increases in delinquency. A $31.3 million loan secured by an eight-property medical office portfolio owned by Global Medical REIT was also reported as 30 days delinquent in February 2023.

Retail had the highest delinquency rate among all property types, equal to 7.78%, as of February 2023. Over the trailing 12 months, retail delinquency was at its lowest point in July 2022 (5.38%) but consistently trended higher throughout the second half of 2022. The delinquency rate for lodging loans exhibited a modest month-over-month increase to 4.38%. The multifamily (1.57%) and industrial (0.34%) delinquency rates declined in February compared to January 2023.

Special servicing rates were impacted by several new transfers this month, including two notable regional malls. The $295 million Shops at Mission Viejo loan transferred to special servicing after a maturity default on February 1, 2023. Additionally, the Pyramid Management Group’s Crossgates Mall transferred to special servicing due to its $245 million mortgage facing imminent default ahead of the loan’s May 2023 maturity date. The retail special servicing rate was 10.74% as of February 2023, highest among all property types. The special servicing rate for lodging was second highest at 5.94% and was followed by office (4.18%), multifamily (2.07%), and industrial (0.42%).

CRED iQ’s CMBS distressed rate (DQ + SS%) by property type accounts for loans that qualify for either delinquent or special servicing subsets. This month, the overall distressed rate for CMBS increased to 5.29%. The increase was driven by increases in delinquency rates for loans secured by office, retail, and lodging properties that became delinquent but have not yet transferred to special servicing. As such, the spread between the delinquency rate and special servicing rate widened modestly in February, compared to the prior month.

For additional information about two of this month’s largest loans that transferred to special servicing, click View Details below:

	[View Details]	[View Details]
Loan	Shops at Mission Viejo	Crossgates Mall
Balance	$295 million	$245 million
Special Servicer Transfer Date	2/1/2023	2/2/2023

About CRED iQ

CRED-iQ-February-2023-Delinquency-Report Download

Multifamily Distress and the New York MSA

CRED iQ

February 23, 2023

A point of interest among multifamily investors reviewing February 2023 reporting data for CMBS securitizations was the special servicing transfer of a $270.3 million floating-rate mortgage secured by a 637-unit, 11-property multifamily portfolio owned by Blackstone. CRED iQ anticipates the special servicing transfer to elevate the distressed rate for CMBS loans secured by multifamily properties within the New York City MSA. Prior to February 2023, CRED iQ’s distressed rate for NYC Multifamily was 0.71%. Distressed Rate is defined as the percentage of loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. Although the distressed rate for NYC multifamily appears nominal at first glance, the New York MSA still ranked as the sixth-highest for multifamily distress among the Top 50 markets tracked by CRED iQ. Other notable distressed properties in the New York MSA include 1209 Dekalb, a 127-unit mid-rise property in Brooklyn. The property secures a $46 million mortgage that has been specially serviced since October 2020. Among multifamily markets with higher distress than New York were San Francisco (5.83%) and Los Angeles (1.24%).

To be fair, the New York MSA is by far the largest multifamily market in the U.S and is expected to continue to attract multifamily investment given vacancy rates that trend below national levels and favorable demographics. These positives are balanced by headwinds such as negative net migration away from the metro and geographical resident deterrence stemming from remote working alternatives.

Reframing our view of distress to a historical perspective, the New York MSA has improved on an absolute basis compared to 12 months prior when the multifamily distressed rate for the market was 1.41%. However, the distressed rate appears to have reached its apex in October 2022 when the distressed rate declined as low as 0.51%. After October 2022, the New York MSA multifamily distressed rate increased for three consecutive months, without yet accounting for the latest $270.3 million addition to the distressed bucket.

Compared to the overall CMBS distressed rate for multifamily loans, historical trends for the New York MSA have exhibited similar patterns over the past year. The multifamily distressed rate for CMBS has been trending higher for six months. The low-point for distress in CMBS multifamily loans over the past year occurred in July 2022 when the distressed rate was 1.41%. Notable, there were spikes in distress in August and November caused maturity defaults that were worked out by the next month. The multifamily distressed rate for CMBS has nearly doubled since July 2022.

Overall, the performance of the CMBS multifamily sector can be put into perspective when considering other property types and the broader multifamily market. Multifamily, along with industrial, have been the two best performing property types in recent history. Other property types like retail, lodging and more recently office have faced secular headwinds due to shifting usage trends. For comparison, Fannie Mae’s multifamily delinquency rate — defined as loans that are 60+ days delinquent – has consistently and steadily declined from its February 2022 mark of 0.40%. The Freddie Mac K-deal multifamily delinquency rate has barely registered with a delinquency rate – defined as loan that are 30+ days delinquent — of just eight basis points as of year-end 2022. CMBS multifamily collateral tends to have more idiosyncrasies than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collateral, partially explaining the variation in distressed rates. Additional idiosyncrasies and pockets of distress, such as the New York multifamily default, may materialize market by market as maturity balloon payments come due and floating-rate debt service continues to pressure coverage ratios.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.

The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.

Chart-Finance-x-CRED-iQ-NYC-Multifamily-and-Distress Download

Distressed Workouts and Payoffs – January 2023

CRED iQ

February 10, 2023

CMBS transactions incurred approximately $76 million in realized losses during January 2023 via the workout of distressed assets. CRED iQ identified 24 workouts classified as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs in January 2023. Of the 24 workouts, nine were resolved without a loss. Of the 15 workouts resulting in losses, severities for the month of January ranged from 4% to 100%, based on outstanding balances at disposition. Aggregate realized losses in January 2023 were approximately 42% lower than December 2022 despite nearly three times as many distressed workouts. The number of distressed workouts was the third-highest over the past year while aggregate realized losses ranked as one of the three-lowest totals over the same period. On a monthly basis, realized losses for CMBS transactions averaged approximately $133.1 million during the trailing 12 months.

By property type, workouts were evenly concentrated in lodging, office, and retail, each accounting for six distressed resolutions. The six office workouts had the highest total of aggregate realized losses ($29.3 million), which accounted for 39% of total losses for the month. The largest individual realized loss from CRED iQ’s observations was from Marriott Galleria, a 301-key full-service hotel located in Houston, TX. The property had been REO since June 2021 and was sold via auction in August 2022 for approximately $28 million, equal to $93,000 per key. The sale price was significantly higher than the property’s July 2022 appraised value of $18.4 million, equal to $61,000 per key. The asset had outstanding debt of $29.1 million, which incurred a $13 million loss upon liquidation this month accounting for expenses, equal to a 45% severity.

The largest workout by outstanding debt balance was a $75.4 million mortgage secured by The Collection at Forsyth, a 523,535-SF lifestyle center located 30 miles north of Atlanta, GA. The loan transferred to special servicing in early-December 2022 just prior to maturity default. The loan collateral was sold shortly thereafter to CTO Realty Growth Inc. for $96 million ($183/SF), allowing for sale proceeds to retire the outstanding mortgage without incurring a loss. This was a relatively encouraging resolution as the loan was able to be worked out swiftly and without a loss.

Excluding defeased loans, there was approximately $5.7 billion in securitized debt among CMBS conduit, Single-Borrower Large-Loan, and Freddie Mac securitizations that was paid off or liquidated in January 2023, which was approximately an 18% decrease compared to $7 billion in December 2022. In January, 7% of the loan resolutions were categorized as dispositions, liquidations, or discounted payoffs. The percentage of distressed workouts was only 2% in the prior month. Approximately 28% of the loans were paid off with prepayment penalties, which was less than 36% as of the prior month.

Excluding Freddie Mac securitizations, retail had the highest total of outstanding debt payoff in January with approximately 34% of the total by balance. Multifamily and office were the property types with the next highest outstanding debt payoff with 23% and 16% of the total, respectively. Among the largest individual payoffs was a $237.4 million mortgage secured by the Green Acres Mall, a 1.8 million-SF regional mall owned by Macerich and located on Long Island, NY.

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform designed to unlock investment, financing, and leasing opportunities. CRED iQ provides real-time property, loan, tenant, ownership, and valuation data for over $2.0 trillion of commercial real estate.

CRED-iQ-CMBS-January-2023-Distressed-Workouts-and-Payoffs Download

Commercial Real Estate Market Delinquency Tracker – January 2023

CRED iQ

February 7, 2023

CRED iQ monitors distressed rates and market performance for nearly 400 MSAs across the United States, covering over $900 billion in outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt. Distressed rates (DQ + SS%) include loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. Distressed rates and month-over-month changes for data reported as of January 2023 are presented below for the 50 largest MSAs, broken out by property type for a granular view of distress by market-sector.

Of the 50 largest MSAs tracked by CRED iQ, 27 of those markets exhibited month-over-month declines in the percentage of distressed CRE loans. The average decline among the 27 markets with lower distressed rates was -0.2%. Notable markets with decreased levels of distress this month included Portland (-2.2%), Washington, DC (-0.8%) and Birmingham, AL (-0.7%).

There were 23 markets with month-over-month increases in the percentage of distressed CRE loans. The average increase for these markets was +0.4%. The Charlotte MSA had the highest increase in overall distress this month (+3.7%), which was driven by adverse developments in the office sector. The Denver MSA additionally had a notable increase in distress (+1.9%) driven primarily by the office sector.

For a more granular analysis of the Top 50 markets, CRED iQ further delineated individual markets’ distressed rates by property type for a comprehensive view by market-sector. For a second consecutive month, deterioration in the office sector was a primary factor in increases in distress by market-sector. Metrics continue to worsen for the Denver office market. Last month’s Market Delinquency Tracker detailed the special servicing transfer of the $243.6 million Republic Plaza office loan. More recently, a $277.1 senior mortgage secured by Wells Fargo Center transferred to special servicing. These two credit developments pushed CRED iQ’s Denver office distressed rate to 14.2%, which compares to 7.3% just two months ago as of November 2022. Aside from Denver, the Charlotte office market exhibited a swiftly elevated increase in distress after a $160 million mortgage secured by 301 South College Street transferred to special servicing and a $120 million loan secured by Charlotte Plaza defaulted at maturity.

Another market-sector that was impacted by increased distress was the Tampa retail market. A $72.4 million loan secured by The Shops at Wiregrass, a 729,324-SF lifestyle center became 30 days delinquent as of January 2023. The property was 80% occupied as of September and has been adversely impacted by in-line tenant turnover since 2020.

Several hotel and retail markets continued to improve in January 2023. Three of the five largest percentage declines in distressed rates across market-sectors this month were lodging markets. Four of the 10 largest percentage declines were in retail markets. The Portland lodging market exhibited one of the sharpest declines in distress following a modification of a $51.9 million mortgage secured by the 205-key Westin Portland. The loan had been with the special servicer since June 2020 due to pandemic-related distress but returned to the master servicer in December 2022.

The Minneapolis MSA has the highest overall distressed rate at 20.4%, which was slightly higher than the previous month. Cleveland (10.7%), Birmingham (10.4%), Hartford (8.9%), and Milwaukee (8.7%) comprise the remaining markets with the highest rates of distress. For the second consecutive month, the Sacramento MSA (0.1%) is the market with the lowest percentage of distress among the Top 50 MSAs.

For the full Market DelinQuency Tracker Report, download here:

The-CRED-DQ-Market-Delinquency-Tracker-January-2023 Download

MSA – Property Type	DQ/SS (millions)	DS/SS (%)	Monthly Change
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ MSA	$77.5	2.4%	0.0%
Allentown – Hotel	$0.4	1.0%	-0.9%
Allentown – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Allentown – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Allentown – Office	$58.2	17.9%	0.0%
Allentown – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Allentown – Retail	$19.0	5.1%	0.0%
Allentown – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA	$525.6	1.9%	0.0%
Atlanta – Hotel	$82.1	3.2%	-0.1%
Atlanta – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Office	$63.9	3.0%	0.4%
Atlanta – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Atlanta – Retail	$379.7	17.4%	-1.4%
Atlanta – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Austin-Round Rock, TX MSA	$109.8	1.2%	0.0%
Austin – Hotel	$50.3	5.6%	-1.0%
Austin – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Austin – Other	$4.1	1.3%	0.1%
Austin – Retail	$55.4	7.1%	0.7%
Austin – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Baltimore – Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA	$356.0	3.7%	-0.2%
Baltimore – Hotel	$43.8	9.1%	-0.4%
Baltimore – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Baltimore – Multifamily	$3.8	0.1%	0.0%
Baltimore – Office	$46.6	5.5%	0.3%
Baltimore – Other	$11.5	6.2%	1.3%
Baltimore – Retail	$250.3	22.8%	0.3%
Baltimore – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Birmingham-Hoover, AL MSA	$321.8	10.4%	-0.7%
Birmingham – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Multifamily	$63.2	4.5%	0.0%
Birmingham – Office	$94.5	18.9%	0.6%
Birmingham – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Birmingham – Retail	$164.2	23.0%	-2.7%
Birmingham – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA	$123.1	0.6%	0.0%
Boston – Hotel	$19.3	1.2%	0.0%
Boston – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Office	$14.5	0.2%	0.0%
Boston – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Boston – Retail	$89.3	5.1%	-0.4%
Boston – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT MSA	$199.3	4.8%	-0.2%
Bridgeport – Hotel	$38.0	24.3%	-5.6%
Bridgeport – Industrial	$17.8	15.0%	15.0%
Bridgeport – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Office	$133.6	11.1%	-2.9%
Bridgeport – Other	$9.8	3.3%	0.8%
Bridgeport – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Bridgeport – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Charlotte – Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC MSA	$573.3	7.4%	3.7%
Charlotte – Hotel	$35.3	4.0%	-0.3%
Charlotte – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Charlotte – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Charlotte – Office	$355.1	38.4%	30.4%
Charlotte – Other	$99.5	31.1%	-0.3%
Charlotte – Retail	$83.5	9.1%	-1.1%
Charlotte – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Chicago – Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI MSA	$2,384.2	7.8%	0.5%
Chicago – Hotel	$747.4	31.0%	0.2%
Chicago – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Chicago – Multifamily	$53.8	0.6%	0.0%
Chicago – Office	$1,121.7	12.5%	1.0%
Chicago – Other	$208.4	8.2%	0.0%
Chicago – Retail	$252.8	7.9%	0.9%
Chicago – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN MSA	$137.2	3.6%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Hotel	$86.9	30.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Other	$6.8	2.6%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Retail	$43.5	7.9%	0.0%
Cincinnati – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cleveland – Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH MSA	$450.2	10.7%	0.4%
Cleveland – Hotel	$84.8	46.4%	0.0%
Cleveland – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Cleveland – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	-0.1%
Cleveland – Office	$185.2	21.3%	2.5%
Cleveland – Other	$172.5	42.9%	0.0%
Cleveland – Retail	$7.7	1.1%	0.0%
Cleveland – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Columbus, OH MSA	$158.4	2.3%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Hotel	$19.4	6.8%	-0.2%
Columbus, OH – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Office	$31.0	4.8%	-0.1%
Columbus, OH – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Columbus, OH – Retail	$107.9	13.1%	-1.4%
Columbus, OH – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Dallas – Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA	$228.2	0.7%	-0.1%
Dallas – Hotel	$76.2	2.2%	-0.1%
Dallas – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	-0.1%
Dallas – Multifamily	$8.5	0.0%	0.0%
Dallas – Office	$101.0	3.2%	-0.3%
Dallas – Other	$4.9	0.2%	0.0%
Dallas – Retail	$37.7	1.8%	-1.5%
Dallas – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Denver – Denver-Aurora, CO MSA	$820.2	5.2%	1.9%
Denver – Hotel	$31.6	4.1%	1.5%
Denver – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Denver – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Denver – Office	$675.9	32.4%	14.2%
Denver – Other	$66.4	7.0%	0.1%
Denver – Retail	$46.2	3.4%	-0.1%
Denver – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Detroit – Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA	$265.5	2.5%	0.3%
Detroit – Hotel	$84.0	11.4%	-0.4%
Detroit – Industrial	$20.4	3.3%	3.3%
Detroit – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Detroit – Office	$18.2	0.8%	0.6%
Detroit – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Detroit – Retail	$142.8	9.5%	-0.6%
Detroit – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA	$237.9	8.9%	-0.1%
Hartford – Hotel	$56.7	42.3%	-1.0%
Hartford – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Office	$25.1	9.2%	0.0%
Hartford – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Hartford – Retail	$156.1	47.9%	1.2%
Hartford – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Houston – Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA	$1,177.3	4.4%	-0.1%
Houston – Hotel	$463.6	44.9%	-2.9%
Houston – Industrial	$58.8	8.9%	8.9%
Houston – Multifamily	$12.1	0.1%	-0.1%
Houston – Office	$505.4	14.4%	1.4%
Houston – Other	$32.4	5.1%	5.1%
Houston – Retail	$105.0	2.1%	-1.4%
Houston – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Indianapolis-Carmel, IN MSA	$175.8	2.9%	0.2%
Indianapolis – Hotel	$110.2	17.2%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Office	$60.1	10.3%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Indianapolis – Retail	$5.6	1.6%	-0.1%
Indianapolis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Jacksonville, FL MSA	$111.9	2.0%	-0.1%
Jacksonville – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Retail	$111.9	28.6%	0.0%
Jacksonville – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Kansas City, MO-KS MSA	$81.2	1.4%	0.1%
Kansas City – Hotel	$28.9	11.4%	-1.0%
Kansas City – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Multifamily	$3.8	0.1%	0.1%
Kansas City – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas City – Retail	$48.4	8.4%	0.4%
Kansas City – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Las Vegas-Paradise, NV MSA	$258.4	1.2%	-0.1%
Las Vegas – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Office	$0.0	0.0%	-0.5%
Las Vegas – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Las Vegas – Retail	$258.4	6.6%	0.2%
Las Vegas – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Los Angeles – Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA	$1,009.2	1.8%	0.2%
Los Angeles – Hotel	$84.3	1.4%	-1.3%
Los Angeles – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Los Angeles – Multifamily	$270.0	1.2%	1.2%
Los Angeles – Office	$34.3	0.3%	-0.3%
Los Angeles – Other	$56.5	1.6%	0.0%
Los Angeles – Retail	$564.2	6.8%	-2.3%
Los Angeles – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN MSA	$70.4	2.3%	0.0%
Louisville – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Louisville – Retail	$70.4	14.3%	-0.4%
Louisville – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Memphis, TN-AR-MS MSA	$72.9	3.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Hotel	$12.4	5.4%	-0.6%
Memphis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Memphis – Retail	$60.6	16.7%	0.0%
Memphis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami – Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA	$267.7	1.0%	0.0%
Miami – Hotel	$40.5	0.8%	0.0%
Miami – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	-0.4%
Miami – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami – Office	$4.0	0.2%	0.0%
Miami – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Miami – Retail	$223.1	4.1%	0.2%
Miami – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI MSA	$219.8	8.7%	0.1%
Milwaukee – Hotel	$16.6	10.3%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Office	$96.8	17.7%	0.8%
Milwaukee – Other	$0.2	0.2%	0.0%
Milwaukee – Retail	$106.1	23.0%	-0.6%
Milwaukee – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Minneapolis – Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA	$1,728.9	20.4%	0.1%
Minneapolis – Hotel	$239.7	39.0%	0.3%
Minneapolis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Minneapolis – Multifamily	$20.5	0.7%	0.7%
Minneapolis – Office	$64.6	3.2%	-0.1%
Minneapolis – Other	$4.1	0.8%	-0.2%
Minneapolis – Retail	$1,400.0	74.2%	-2.9%
Minneapolis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN MSA	$88.5	1.4%	0.5%
Nashville – Hotel	$51.9	3.6%	0.0%
Nashville – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Office	$23.5	4.9%	4.9%
Nashville – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Nashville – Retail	$13.1	1.8%	0.5%
Nashville – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
New Orleans – New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA MSA	$132.1	3.7%	0.0%
New Orleans – Hotel	$59.9	5.1%	-0.1%
New Orleans – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
New Orleans – Multifamily	$8.3	0.9%	0.0%
New Orleans – Office	$27.1	5.5%	0.5%
New Orleans – Other	$14.7	9.5%	0.0%
New Orleans – Retail	$22.0	3.2%	0.2%
New Orleans – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
New York City – New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA	$6,843.7	5.0%	0.0%
New York City – Hotel	$907.4	23.2%	-1.4%
New York City – Industrial	$98.7	2.3%	-0.1%
New York City – Multifamily	$261.5	0.7%	0.1%
New York City – Office	$1,921.6	3.8%	0.8%
New York City – Other	$1,563.7	6.3%	-1.3%
New York City – Retail	$2,090.8	15.2%	-0.8%
New York City – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA	$114.0	1.1%	-0.2%
Orlando – Hotel	$27.9	1.0%	-0.9%
Orlando – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Office	$57.7	13.5%	0.5%
Orlando – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando – Retail	$28.5	3.1%	0.0%
Orlando – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Philadelphia – Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA	$832.6	3.9%	0.2%
Philadelphia – Hotel	$98.9	10.7%	3.0%
Philadelphia – Industrial	$10.4	0.3%	0.0%
Philadelphia – Multifamily	$41.2	0.4%	-0.4%
Philadelphia – Office	$285.0	6.7%	1.2%
Philadelphia – Other	$378.0	30.6%	0.6%
Philadelphia – Retail	$19.2	0.9%	0.0%
Philadelphia – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA	$222.5	1.1%	-0.1%
Phoenix – Hotel	$32.0	1.9%	-0.1%
Phoenix – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Office	$55.8	2.5%	-0.1%
Phoenix – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix – Retail	$134.7	6.1%	-2.3%
Phoenix – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh, PA MSA	$256.2	5.5%	0.3%
Pittsburgh – Hotel	$26.7	12.8%	4.1%
Pittsburgh – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Multifamily	$0.1	0.0%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Office	$104.5	10.0%	0.4%
Pittsburgh – Other	$117.1	33.1%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Retail	$7.8	1.3%	0.0%
Pittsburgh – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Portland – Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA	$532.5	6.0%	-2.2%
Portland – Hotel	$296.3	34.0%	-4.3%
Portland – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Portland – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	-0.2%
Portland – Office	$25.3	5.4%	2.3%
Portland – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Portland – Retail	$211.0	43.0%	0.2%
Portland – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA	$25.9	0.7%	0.0%
Raleigh – Hotel	$15.3	6.6%	-0.6%
Raleigh – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Raleigh – Retail	$10.6	3.9%	-0.2%
Raleigh – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Richmond, VA MSA	$158.5	4.8%	-0.4%
Richmond – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Richmond – Office	$0.0	0.0%	-2.6%
Richmond – Other	$12.9	8.9%	0.0%
Richmond – Retail	$145.7	30.7%	-1.5%
Richmond – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA	$311.5	3.0%	0.2%
Riverside – Hotel	$51.3	11.2%	-0.2%
Riverside – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Riverside – Other	$0.0	0.0%	-2.5%
Riverside – Retail	$260.3	12.9%	1.5%
Riverside – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA MSA	$6.1	0.1%	0.0%
Sacramento – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Office	$6.1	0.8%	0.0%
Sacramento – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Sacramento – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Salt Lake City, UT MSA	$6.1	0.1%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Hotel	$6.1	2.1%	-0.1%
Salt Lake City – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Salt Lake City – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – San Antonio, TX MSA	$140.1	2.1%	0.0%
San Antonio – Hotel	$16.7	6.2%	-0.1%
San Antonio – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – Multifamily	$7.9	0.2%	0.0%
San Antonio – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Antonio – Retail	$115.5	14.7%	0.5%
San Antonio – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego – San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA	$46.4	0.4%	-0.1%
San Diego – Hotel	$39.4	3.3%	-0.1%
San Diego – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego – Multifamily	$4.2	0.1%	0.0%
San Diego – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Diego – Other	$0.0	0.0%	-1.3%
San Diego – Retail	$2.9	0.2%	0.0%
San Diego – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Francisco – San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA	$733.0	2.7%	0.0%
San Francisco – Hotel	$100.7	2.5%	-1.0%
San Francisco – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Francisco – Multifamily	$459.5	5.8%	0.0%
San Francisco – Office	$86.8	0.9%	0.6%
San Francisco – Other	$38.6	1.4%	-0.6%
San Francisco – Retail	$47.4	4.3%	0.2%
San Francisco – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA MSA	$59.0	0.3%	0.0%
San Jose – Hotel	$35.5	0.5%	0.0%
San Jose – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Office	$23.5	0.3%	0.0%
San Jose – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA	$61.5	0.3%	0.1%
Seattle – Hotel	$61.5	4.4%	1.8%
Seattle – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Retail	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Seattle – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
St. Louis – St. Louis, MO-IL MSA	$215.1	5.1%	0.0%
St. Louis – Hotel	$1.7	0.6%	0.1%
St. Louis – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
St. Louis – Multifamily	$3.2	0.2%	0.0%
St. Louis – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
St. Louis – Other	$19.5	3.9%	0.0%
St. Louis – Retail	$190.7	20.7%	0.1%
St. Louis – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	$192.5	2.0%	0.7%
Tampa – Hotel	$59.0	8.2%	-0.3%
Tampa – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Office	$23.3	3.1%	-0.3%
Tampa – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tampa – Retail	$110.2	14.6%	9.5%
Tampa – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Tucson, AZ MSA	$157.7	4.3%	-0.4%
Tucson – Hotel	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Tucson – Retail	$157.7	15.3%	-4.1%
Tucson – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA	$177.3	3.6%	0.2%
Virginia Beach – Hotel	$13.6	3.1%	3.1%
Virginia Beach – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Office	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Other	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Virginia Beach – Retail	$163.7	18.9%	-1.2%
Virginia Beach – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Washington, DC – Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA	$606.5	1.8%	-0.8%
Washington, DC – Hotel	$35.7	3.1%	-0.2%
Washington, DC – Industrial	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Washington, DC – Multifamily	$0.0	0.0%	-1.5%
Washington, DC – Office	$463.5	6.1%	0.0%
Washington, DC – Other	$32.9	2.1%	-0.1%
Washington, DC – Retail	$74.3	2.2%	-0.1%
Washington, DC – Self Storage	$0.0	0.0%	0.0%
Grand Total	$24,060.9	3.2%	0.1%

About CRED iQ

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers to CRED iQ use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion of CMBS, CRE CLO, SBLL, Ginnie Mae, FHA/HUD, and Freddie Mac loan and property data.

January 2023 Delinquency Report

CRED iQ

February 2, 2023

The CRED iQ delinquency rate for CMBS started 2023 with a downswing compared to the previous month. The delinquency rate for the January 2023 reporting period was 3.25%, which was approximately a 7% decline compared to 3.49% as of December 2022. The delinquency rate is equal to the percentage of all delinquent specially serviced loans and delinquent non-specially serviced loans, for CRED iQ’s sample universe of $600+ billion in CMBS conduit and single asset single-borrower (SASB) loans. CRED iQ’s special servicing rate, equal to the percentage of CMBS loans that are with the special servicer (delinquent and non-delinquent), also declined month-over-month to 4.71% from 5.16%. Aggregating the two indicators of distress – delinquency rate and special servicing rate – into an overall distressed rate (DQ + SS%) equals 4.84% of CMBS loans that are specially serviced, delinquent, or a combination of both. In parallel with the delinquency rate and special servicing rate, the overall distressed rate decreased compared to the prior month’s distressed rate of 5.33%. Distressed rates generally track slightly higher than special servicing rates as most delinquent loans are also with the special servicer.

By property type, loans secured by office properties exhibited the sharpest jump in delinquency. The delinquency rate for office increased to 2.16%, compared to 1.76% as of December 2022. The surge was equal to a 23% month-over-month increase. Office delinquency as of January 2023 is at its highest level over the past 12 months. One of the largest loans to become delinquent this month was a $120 million mortgage secured by Charlotte Plaza, a 632,283-SF office tower in Charlotte, NC. The loan defaulted at maturity in January 2023 after multiple years of occupancy struggles.

Retail maintained its position as the property type with the highest delinquency rate, equal to 7.43% as of January 2023. The delinquency rate for lodging was second-highest, equal to 4.32%. Both retail and lodging delinquency rates exhibited month-over-month declines. The delinquency rate for multifamily (1.87%) declined compared to December 2022 while the delinquency rate for industrial (0.38%) increased modestly.

Focusing on special servicing rates by property type, loans secured by office (4.24%) exhibited the largest month-over-month increase among all property types. As of January 2023, the special servicing rate for office was at a 12-month high. The sharp increase in the percentage of specially serviced loans was driven by a $277.1 million senior floating-rate mortgage secured by the Wells Fargo Center, a 52-story, 1.2 million-SF office tower located in Denver, CO. The loan had an initial maturity date in December 2021, but the borrower exercised one of its three, one-year extension options at the time, which pushed maturity to December 2022. The extended December 2022 maturity date was synchronous with the expiration of an interest rate cap agreement. The interest rate expiration may have contributed to the borrower’s decision not to move forward with a second maturity extension given the relatively high costs of one in a rising rate environment. The loan went into maturity default in December 2022 and transferred to special servicing. This is the second consecutive month with a high-profile maturity default reported for a loan secured by a Denver office tower. Last month, CRED iQ’s December 2022 Delinquency Report detailed the special servicing transfer of Republic Plaza, which was also caused by maturity default.

The special servicing rates for multifamily (2.68%) and industrial (0.41%) increased compared to last month. Retail (10.99%) and lodging (5.47%) exhibited declines in respective percentages of specially serviced loans.

CRED iQ’s CMBS distressed rate (DQ + SS%) by property type accounts for loans that qualify for either delinquent or special servicing subsets. This month, the overall distressed rate for CMBS declined to 4.71%, which was aided by lower distress in lodging and retail. However, the distressed rate for office increased by 14% to 4.37% this month following the aforementioned maturity defaults of loans secured by Charlotte Plaza and Wells Fargo Center. For additional information about these two loans, click View Details below:

	[View Details]	[View Details]
Loan	Wells Fargo Center	Charlotte Plaza
Balance	$243,621,128	$120,000,000
Special Servicer Transfer Date	12/21/2022	–

About CRED iQ

CRED-iQ-January-2023-Delinquency-Report Download

2023 Multifamily Maturities by Market

CRED iQ

January 26, 2023

CRED iQ is tracking approximately $25 billion of securitized debt secured by multifamily properties that is scheduled to mature in 2023. Exploring upcoming CRE loan maturities can be beneficial for constituents in the commercial real estate industry looking to make more informed decisions to identify potential opportunities for growth. Lenders and mortgage originators can develop a better understanding of market positions while capital providers and distressed investors can dial in on targeted deployments.

Serving as a more extensive analysis and supplement to CRED iQ’s year-end 2023 CRE Maturity Outlook report, we took the opportunity to focus on near-term maturing loans with multifamily collateral. Although some multifamily metrics, such as rent growth, have been softening, multifamily still remains among the top-performing CRE property types in 2023. CRED iQ’s distressed rate for multifamily CMBS, which includes both delinquent and special serviced loans, was 2.72%, which was lower than retail, lodging, and office.

Altogether, CRED iQ identified more than 2,300 multifamily loans with a 2023 maturity date, totaling approximately $25 billion by aggregate balance. Outstanding debt figures comprise all securitized mortgages in CRED iQ’s $2 trillion commercial real estate database, including CMBS, Freddie Mac, Fannie, Mae, and Ginnie Mae loans. Looking ahead, the multifamily maturity wave picks up in 2024 with $49 billion in scheduled maturities. Aggregate scheduled multifamily maturities remain relatively flat between $30 and $40 billion from 2025 through 2027 and then surge to north of $80 billion in 2028, towards $100 billion a year by 2029.

Stratifying 2023 multifamily loans by the underlying properties’ geographical area gives a sense of which markets have elevated opportunity for refinancing activity. Examining the Top 20 markets with the highest amount of multifamily debt coming due in 2023, we observed that New York City leads all Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with $2.3 billion. The NYC MSA accounts for 9% of 2023 multifamily maturities. The Dallas-Fort Worth MSA comes in a close second-place with $1.9 billion of multifamily mortgage debt that is scheduled to mature in 2023. Other MSAs with more than $1 billion of multifamily loans due to mature in 2023 include Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Austin.

Overlaying distressed rates for each market, we find that 12 of the Top 20 markets with 2023 multifamily maturities, or 60% in total, have nominal levels of distress. Only two of these markets – Washington, DC and San Francisco – have distressed rates greater than 1%

Finally, we also cross-paneled 2023 multifamily loan maturities by securitization type and total maturing debt by market. This table gives a view of which markets have the highest outstanding maturing balances in 2023 by securitization vehicle. For example, the majority of 2023 multifamily loan maturities are securitized in CRE CLOs and Single-Borrower Large-Loan transactions. NYC is the market with the highest amount of maturing debt among CRE CLOs, but the Atlanta MSA has the highest multifamily maturing debt amount for Single-Borrower Large-Loan securitizations. It is also worth noting that most loans in the CRE CLO and Single-Borrower subsets have embedded maturity extension options that can push refinancing beyond 2023. Los Angeles claims the highest ranking for 2023 multifamily loan maturities for Fannie Mae securitizations and Dallas-Fort Worth has the highest rank for Freddie Mac securitizations.

About CRED iQ

Chart-Finance-x-CRED-iQ-Multifamily-Maturities-by-MSA-1 Download

1...232425...39 Page 24 of 39