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CRED iQ is a proud data sponsor for this exceptional program!
The CRED iQ research team focused upon the underwriting of the latest market transactions. We wanted to understand they key loan metrics across this universe to get a real-time sense of the new issues marketplace.
CRED iQ analyzed underwriting metrics for the latest 8 CMBS conduit transactions. We reviewed 500 properties associated with 302 new loans totaling $6.4 billion in loan value. All of the loans were originated within the past 4 months. Our analysis examined interest rates, loan-to-values (“LTV”), DSCR (NCF), debt yields, and cap rates. We further broke down these statistics to show a minimum, maximum and average for each metric and by property type.

Office
In total, 41 properties (of the 500 total in our analysis) were secured by office assets, comprising a total loan balance of $673.5 million. Average interest rates were 7.5% and ranged from 6.9% to 8.3. Cap rates ranged from 5.5% to 9.3% and had an average of 7.1% for the office sector. Debt yields and DSCRs averaged 13.3% and 1.54, respectively. Office LTVs were 54.2% on average.

Multifamily
There were 105 properties secured by multifamily properties totaling $1.3 billion in new loan originations. Interest rates ranged from 4.7% to 8.3% with an average of 6.9%. Cap rates ranged from 4.3% to 10.8% and had an average of 6.0% for the multifamily sector. Average debt yields and DSCRs were the lowest across all property types at 9.6% and 1.49 respectively. Meanwhile, the multifamily LTV average was the highest value across property types at 59.5%.

Retail
By loan value, retail was the most popular asset type with $2.3 billion. In total, 128 properties were secured by retail properties. Interest rates ranged from 6.2% to 9.0% with an average of 7.2%. Cap rates ranged from 4.8% to 12.3% with an average of 6.7% for the retail sector. The average debt yield was 15.2%. The average DSCR of 2.06 was the highest of any sector, while the LTV of 45.5% was the lowest.

Other Notable Findings
Hotels had the highest average interest rate (7.7%), cap rate (8.1%), and debt yield (17.1%) across the sectors.
Manufactured housing represented the smallest property type with only 12 properties backing $59.9 million. Self storage properties had the lowest average cap rate at 5.8%.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.
CRED iQ’s research team continues to examine the CRE CLO ecosystem from multiple perspectives and CRED iQ’s latest loan information from the March 2024 reporting period. In this report we explore and breakdown the distress levels for CRE CLO during the first quarter of this year. CRED iQ excludes CRE CLO deals from our monthly delinquency reports and so we continue our examination of this important sector on a stand-alone basis.
Some of the largest issuers of CRE CLO debt over the past five years include MF1, Arbor, LoanCore, Benefit Street Partners, Bridge Investment Group, FS Rialto, and TPG. CRED iQ consolidated all of the loan-level performance data for every outstanding CRE CLO loan to measure the underlying risks associated with these transitional assets. Many of these loans were originated in 2021 at times where cap rates were low, valuations high, low interest rates, and are starting to run into maturity issues given the spike in rates.

CRED iQ’s research finds the distress rate for CRE CLO climbed from 7.4% as published in our 2023 summary report to 10.2% at the close of Q1continuing the upward trend that commenced last summer – leading to a 440% increase in 2023. This metric includes any loan that reported 30 days delinquent or worse as well as any loan that is with the special servicer.
Breaking down CRE CLO distress rates by property type, the office sector lead all other categories at 16.2%. Multifamily and retail round out the top three at 11.1% and 7.5% respectively. Industrial, hotel and self-storage all operating below 3% – with self-storage at 0% in this print.
When examining distressed rates by loan payment status, it is interesting to note that 44.6% of the distressed loans have passed their maturity and have not paid off, in breach of their loan terms (combining performing and noon-performing loans). Clear indications here that the momentum in CRE loan modifications is likely to continue.

Outstanding CRE CLO loans amount to approximately $75 billion in loans. The vast majority of these CRE CLO loans are structured with floating rate loans with 3-year loan terms equipped with loan extension options if certain financial hurdles are met.
The sudden spike in CRE CLO commenced in in July and August 2023 when distressed rates were around 1.7%, increasing by an average of 1.2% each month. That continued into 2024. The latest distressed levels total 10.2% for all of CRE CLO loans at the close of Q1.

Office Loan
Pacific Building, a 138,252 SF office property in the Pioneer Sq / Waterfront submarket of Seattle is backed by a $36.5 million loan that is over 120 days delinquent. The loan transferred to the special servicer in July 2023 due to delinquency. The current interest rate of the loan (9.618%) more than doubled the 4.809% rate at issuance. The loan is scheduled to mature in January 2025 with a potential fully extended maturity date in January 2027. The property value drastically declined from $69.0 million at underwriting in November 2021 to $36.2 million in September 2023. The asset was most recently performing with 41.9% occupancy and a 0.29 DSCR.
Multifamily Loan
A $39.9 million loan backed by the Tribeca Apartments in Washington, DC, fell 60 days delinquent in March. The loan has a current interest rate of 9.268% and is scheduled to mature in July 2024 with three, one-year extension options. The high-rise apartment building consists of 90-units and is in the Capitol Hill submarket. Constructed in 2021, the asset was valued at $63.6 million at underwriting in May 2022. The asset was performing with a 0.24 DSCR at 88.9% occupancy as of year-end 2023.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.
The CRED iQ research team completed its monthly top-down evaluation of payment statuses reported for each loan, along with special servicing status to compute our distress rate
CRED iQ’s distress rate for all property types increased 26 basis points in March from 7.35% to 7.61%, a new all-time high. Following modest decreases in 3 of the last 4 months (net reduction of 18 basis points during that period). The latest print seems to counter that trend.

Retail’s distress rate earned the largest monthly increase with 108 basis points—the largest such increase in that sector since December 2023. A key factor was the $158 million loan backed by the Miami International Mall which failed to payoff at its February 2024 maturity date, thus impacting the rise of retail distressed rates. Servicer commentary indicates a forbearance agreement for one-year through February 2025 has been established. The 306,855-SF super-regional mall is located in the Miami Airport submarket reported a 2.34 DSCR for yearend 2023.
The Hotel segment distress rate increased to 7.7% from 6.9% in February, earning them second highest increase in this print. Partially driving the increased hotel distress rate is the 164-room, Hilton Garden Inn Cupertino limited-service hotel in the San Jose market. The asset is backed by a $32.0 million interest-only loan that transferred to the special servicer in March due to imminent monetary default prior to its December 2024 maturity date. The nine-month financials from September 2023 reported the hotel was performing at a 63.7% occupancy and a 1.27 DSCR.

The Office sector notched its fourth consecutive distress rate increase and continued its status as the property type with the highest distress rate
Within the self-storage sector, as previously reported, the overall distress rate declined primarily due to a large self-storage portfolio ($2.1B) loan’s payment status became current in February. This explains the wild temporary swing in this normally low distress property type.
Underlying CRED iQ’s distress rate, the CRED iQ Specially Serviced rate rose 34 basis points to 7.38% while the Delinquent print shaved 1 basis point.
CRED iQ’s distress rate aggregates the two indicators of distress – delinquency rate and specially serviced rate – yielding the Distress rate This includes any loan with a payment status of 30+ days or worse, any loan actively with the special servicer, and includes non-performing and performing loans that have failed to pay off at maturity.

Distressed Loan Payment Status
About a quarter of the distressed loans are non-delinquent with 21.1% being current and 8.0% being within the grace period or less than 30 days late.
A majority of the distressed loans (37.1%) are past their maturity dates and have stopped making monthly payments. On the other side, 10.3% are past their maturity dates, but still make their monthly mortgage payments on time. Measuring delinquency during loan terms prior to maturity dates, CRED iQ calculated 23.6% of the distressed loans are reporting between 30 days to 120+ days delinquent.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.
CRED iQ’s research team has been closely monitoring loan modifications during this period of significantly elevated interest rates. Loan modifications surged in 2023 as borrowers worked with lenders to achieve loan extensions and other alterations to the loan covenants.

The number of modifications in 2023 more than doubled compared to 2022. Of the $162 billion in securitized commercial mortgages which matured in 2023, 542 loans were modified with cumulative balances just over $20 billion, which is a 150% increase from the amount of modifications that occurred in 2022. According to CRED iQ’s 2024 CRE Maturity Outlook, 2024 will see $210 billion in securitized maturities. CRED iQ predicts that the modification trend will continue to surge as more special servicers decide to “pretend and extend” versus foreclose on these commercial properties.
For example, within the office sector only 26% of the $35.8 billion of office CMBS loans that matured in 2023 was actually paid off in full, as borrowers struggled to get refinancing or to sell their properties. CRED iQ’s analyzed 593 office loans that transferred to the special servicer since February 2022. Out of these specially serviced office loans, approximately 13.7% were modified, 14.0% returned to the master servicer as corrected, 8.4% paid off, and the remaining 63.9% are still with the special servicer.

Extending the loan term has been the most popular modification type in 2023 and so far in 2024 (excluding grouping categories Other and Combination). By deal type, CRE CLO deal led all categories and comprised nearly half of all loan modifications, followed by SBLL deals.
Some of the largest loan modifications thus far in 2024 include:
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE/Agency.
CRED iQ’s research team set out to explore CRE distress from a fresh perspective. We were interested in examining special servicer loan transfers over the past year. Our team wanted to understand trends by deal type and reason over time.

As a starting point we broke down each month’s transfers by deal type and plotted these along a timeline which seems to reveal some noteworthy trends.
February saw a spike in agency deal filings –with 36 loans transferring. Apart from February, Conduit loans dominated all other classes in loan filings –consistent with the proportional size of the conduit universe.
In August of 2023, the highest number of loans transferred to the special servicer. August marked the beginning of a trend of substantial distress in the CRE CLO arena. Following months of 1 or two loan transfers, August saw 31 CRE CLO loans sent to special service. 41 more CRE CLO loans would transfer for the balance of 2023 and that trend continues to be a major focus in 2024.

Over this past 12-month period, Imminent Monetary Default was the leading transfer reason. The data breaks down this category into two separate groupings. When combined, roughly half of the leans in our study were transferred for Imminent Monetary Default.

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE/Agency.
CRED iQ monitors distressed rates and market performance for nearly 400 MSAs across the United States, covering over $900 billion in outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt. Distressed rates include loans that are specially serviced, delinquent (30 days past due or worse), or a combination of both.
CRED iQ’s research team set out to examine the distress in today’s securitized CRE ecosystem. We wanted to explore geographic trends as well as the causes or triggers that earned the distressed designation. We focused upon the top 50 MSAs for this analysis.

Across the top 50 MSAs, our team calculated CRED iQ Distress Rate for each market (which combines Delinquent and/or Specially Serviced loans). Hartford logged the highest level of distress at 36.5%, followed by Charlotte (22.4%), Birmingham (20.2%), San Francisco (19.2%) and Portland (17.4%) –rounding out the top 5 MSAs with the highest levels of distress. To provide perspective, the overall distress rate for all loans across every market was 7.35% as of February 2024.
Some of the strongest performing MSAs include Salt Lake City operating at 0% distress today, while San Diego, Sacramento, Seattle, and Boston have less than 1% of their loans in distress.
Among the scope of distressed loans in our analysis, one of the largest is the $384.0 million Nema San Francisco. The loan is backed by a 754-unit multifamily property in San Francisco. Cash flow at the high-rise property was unable to cover expenses, leading to imminent default. Consequently, the loan transferred to the special servicer in August 2023. The asset value decreased from $534.6 million ($720,955/unit) at underwriting to $328.8 million ($436,074/unit) in October 2023. Despite 91.9% occupancy, DSCR was reported below breakeven at 0.81.
With the geographic concentrations in mind, our team took a step back and evaluated the triggers/causes that landed each loan in distress. 16% of all the loans are current with another 7% within the grace period or 30 days late. Meanwhile a whopping 40% are past their maturity dates and have stopped making monthly payments. On the other side, 13.4% are past their maturity dates, but still make their monthly mortgage payments on time. Measuring delinquency during loan terms prior to maturity dates, CRED iQ calculated 23.7% of the distressed loans are reporting between 30 days to 120+ days delinquent.

CRED iQ’s early signals of upcoming distress include loans that have been added to the servicer’s watchlist for credit-related issues. Issues include weak financial performance, low occupancy, high tenant rollover, upcoming maturity risk among other reasons to be flagged as possible troubles. Some notable loans that were added to the watchlist in February include:

CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.
Each month the CRED iQ research team aggregates the entirety of payment statuses reported for each loan, along with special servicing status to arrive at the Distress Rate.
CRED iQ’s Distress Rate for all property types trimmed 4 basis points in February to 7.35% from 7.39%. Our distress rate has logged modest decreases in 3 of the last 4 months (net reduction of 18 basis points during that period). The overall distress rate declined primarily due to a large self storage portfolio ($2.1B) loan’s payment status became current this month after being delinquent last month. Despite the overall distress rate being slightly down, it is notable that 5 of the largest property types each increased this month.
Multifamily’s distress rate earned the largest monthly increase with 80 basis points—the largest monthly increase in that sector in well over 18 months. Our team is wondering if the see-saw trending will continue—albeit with wider swings. Something to watch for in March results.

Underlying CRED iQ’s Distress Rate, the CRED iQ Specially Serviced rate rose 37 basis points to 7.04% while the Delinquent print matched the distress rate with a 4-basis point reduction in February.
Once again, the office sector claimed the largest Overall Distress Rate of 11.0%, an increase of 47 basis points from the previous month.
An example of issues we are tracking within the multifamily scene is one loan, The Reserve at Brandon, a 982-unit multifamily property in East Tampa, that is backed by a $94.1 million loan that fell 30 days delinquent in February. The loan’s rate cap expiration date was in April 2024, along with its initial maturity date. There were three, 12-month extension options at securitization. The loan was added to the watchlist in May 2023 due to low occupancy and DSCR – mostly recently reported in September at 82.3% and 0.41, respectively. At underwriting, the as-is appraisal for the multifamily community was $232.5M ($263,762/unit) with an as-stabilized value of $312.6 million, with stabilization anticipated for March 2025. Servicer commentary indicates there are discussions of extending the April 2024 maturity date.

The hotel segment’s distress rate saw a modest increase of 20 basis points and industrial and self-storage continued to enjoy near zero distress levels.
CRED iQ’s Distress Rate aggregates the two indicators of distress – Delinquency Rate and Specially Serviced Rate – yielding the Distress Rate. This includes any loan with a payment status of 30+ days or worse, any loan actively with the special servicer, and includes non-performing and performing loans that have failed to pay off at maturity.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.
CRED iQ continued and expanded its CRE CLO analysis this week. Our research team explored aggravated data by issuer to uncover opportunities and risks within this hot sector.
We wanted to understand the % breakdown of delinquency/distress within these major CRE CLO issuers’ portfolios, and then measure the scale of those portfolios and their associated rankings within the group. Some core measures of our study include:
MF1 earned the top spot in Current Deal Balance Outstanding. Arbor topped the category of Total Delinquent Loan Balance ($782 million), while ranking in second on Current Deal Balance Outstanding ($8.1 billion). In total, 9.6% of Arbors loans are delinquent which earns Arbor the #4 position in this category.
Leading the rankings by delinquent percentage is Starwood, with a whopping 12.6% of their portfolio delinquent. Greystone and Fortress were not far behind with 11.2% and 10.7% respectively. Starwood ranks third in Total Delinquent Loan balance and ranks #10 for current deal balance outstanding.

Top key findings include:
Here is the full list of Top 21 CRE CLO issuers:

Active Deals by Balance by Issuer:

About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.
Arbor is Not Alone…
CRED iQ took a deep dive into the CRE CLO ecosystem to better understand the rapidly growing distress rates in this space. CRED iQ excludes CRE CLO deals from our monthly delinquency reports but decided to zero in on this important sector on a stand-alone analysis. Following the news of Arbor’s distress level recently, we also wanted to understand how other CRE CLO issuers are faring in this marketplace.
CRED iQ’s Overall Distress Rate for CRE CLO surged in 2023—from 1.4% to 7.4% and jumping even further in January to 8.6%. This metric includes any loan that reported 30 days delinquent or worse as well as any loan that is with the special servicer.
Outstanding CRE CLO loans amount to approximately $80 billion in loans. The vast majority of these CRE CLO loans are structured with floating rate loans with 3-year loan terms equipped with loan extension options if certain financial hurdles are met. Some of the largest issuers of CRE CLO debt over the past five years include MF1, Arbor, LoanCore, Benefit Street Partners, Bridge Investment Group, FS Rialto, and TPG.
CRED iQ consolidated all of the loan-level performance data for every outstanding CRE CLO loan to measure the underlying risks associated with these transitional assets. Many of these loans were originated in 2021 at times where cap rates were low, valuations high, low interest rates, and are starting to run into maturity issues given the spike in rates.
CRED iQ’s analysis uncovers that in the course of 12 months, the amount of CRE CLOs under distress ballooned from $1.3 billion in February 2023 to over $6.8 billion as of the latest January 2024 reporting period. Distress levels grew over 440% over the past 12 months. The sudden spike up started happening in July and August 2023 when distressed rates were around 1.7%, and then each month started increasing by an average of 1.2% each month. The latest distressed levels total 8.6% for all of CRE CLO loans as of January 2024.

CRE CLO Office Loan
700 Louisiana and 600 Prairie Street is a 1,259,314-SF high-rise office property in downtown Houston, TX, is backed by a $232.0M initial loan with a fully funded commitment of $252.0M. The interest-only loan failed to pay off at its September 2023 maturity date and has only paid through September. The 56-story office tower was built in 1983 and renovated in 2011. The asset was appraised as-is at $403.0M at underwriting in June 2023 based on 66.7% occupancy at of April 2019. A 0.77 DSCR (NCF) and 65.8% occupancy was reported in the September 2023 financials. The largest tenant, TransCanada USA Pipeline, represents 23.0% of the net rentable area (NRA) with a lease scheduled to expire in February 2036. The remaining tenants each represent 4.0% or less of the NRA.
Multifamily Loan
An example of upcoming distress despite a “current” loan status is Caden at East Mil. The Caden at East Mill is a 768-unit multifamily property in Orlando, FL, backed by a $98.9M loan that was originated by Arbor. The loan is scheduled to mature in October 2024 with a fully extended maturity date in October 2026. The most recent financials from year-end 2022 reported a 0.65 DSCR (NCF), down from 1.56 at contribution in September 2021. The property was 96.2% occupied and valued at $120.1M in September 2021, at underwriting. Occupancy at the property fell to 85.6% as of November 2023.
About CRED iQ
CRED iQ is a commercial real estate data, analytics, and valuation platform providing actionable intelligence to CRE and capital markets investors. Subscribers use the platform to identify valuable leads for leasing, lending, refinancing, distressed debt, and acquisition opportunities.
The platform also offers a highly efficient valuation engine which can be leveraged across all property types and geographies. Our data platform is powered by over $2.0 trillion in transactions and data covering CRE, CMBS, CRE CLO, Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB), and all of GSE / Agency.